STATUS OF KAREN REFUGEE AND IDP RETURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000574

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2014
TAGS: PREF PINS BM TH
SUBJECT: STATUS OF KAREN REFUGEE AND IDP RETURNS

REF: A. BANGKOK 3031

B. RANGOON 537

Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: UNHCR's first assessment mission into
Burma's south-eastern border area in early April found a
heavy presence of Burmese Army troops and a lack of the basic
infrastructure needed to support the tens of thousands of
refugees projected to eventually return from Thailand.
Though UNHCR continues planning for refugee repatriation, a
formal SPDC-KNU political settlement remains a precondition
for any returns, which UNHCR now doesn't expect to begin
until early 2005. As for IDPs, a Rangoon-based Karen leader
reports that if SPDC-KNU talks scheduled for late May are
successful, Karen IDP resettlement could soon after begin in
the Papun Township in eastern Karen State. END SUMMARY.

INADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE


2. (C) Rangoon UNHCR Representative Rajiv Kapur told COM on
April 8 that a UNHCR assessment team successfully surveyed
three Karen townships in Tenasserim (Tanintharyi) Division in
early April and determined that basic infrastructure needed
to support the thousands of refugees that would return to
that area was lacking. Besides finding approximately 25,000
Burmese Army troops garrisoned in the townships, in the 15
village tracts around Tavoy (Dawei) the SPDC has designated
for settling returning refugees there is no significant local
economy and no drinking water, and health clinics will be
unable to adequately address returnee health issues. Though
there are schools available, they have no furniture, books,
or teachers. However, the Tavoy army commander facilitated a
very well organized trip for UNHCR, indicating to UNHCR the
SPDC is taking the return of refugees and IDPs seriously.


3. (C) Kapur described how 15 to 20 families had already
spontaneously returned to the Tavoy area following the
January SPDC-KNU verbal cease-fire agreement (ref A). He
said UNHCR won't be able tell the difference between a
returning refugee and a returning IDP, and admitted that he
didn't think UNHCR should have to make a distinction since
the reason for flight was exactly the same. Kapur also told
us that according to the ICRC office in Tenasserim Division,
the SPDC is not allowing IDPs and refugees to return to their
original burned-out villages in what is now a no-man's land
near the border. The government is settling the returnees
further into the interior next to military bases, which could
expose them to forced labor and forced contribution abuses in
the future. Kapur forecast that the "right of return" to
their original villages will become a main issue for UNHCR.


4. (C) Help may be on the way. A senior Karen community
leader in Rangoon told us that Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) and World Concern presented a plan
April 26 on regional development to upgrade infrastructure in
the areas the Karen refugees will return to. JICA's Rangoon
representative said that JICA's Chairperson, Professor Ogata,
has given her full support for infrastructure and social
development in the Karen State. However, the GOB has not yet
approved JICA's MOU application to conduct road building,
irrigation, agriculture, malaria, and HIV/AIDS programs.

EFFECT FROM SPDC-KNU DELAY


5. (C) Regarding the recently postponed SPDC-KNU talks (ref
A),Kapur later told Poloff UNHCR has made it very clear all
along that an SPDC-KNU settlement is a precondition for any
refugee repatriations. He added that the GOB hasn't asked
UNHCR to begin any repatriations to date, and "from the UNHCR
perspective that is fine because the earliest returns would
be no sooner than early in 2005." Because of the lack of
roads in the area and daunting logistics required,
repatriations will have to be to only two or three areas at a
time. For example, repatriating the 9,000 refugees to Tavoy
requires bringing them from Thailand by sea. UNHCR will
conduct a second assessment trip to the border area (COMMENT:
Probably in eastern Karen State) in the near future, and is
planning activities aimed at improving the situation for the
population as a whole.

MEANWHILE, 100,000 IDPs IN THE WINGS...


6. (C) A Rangoon-based Karen religious leader reported that
if an agreement is made during the next round of SPDC-KNU
talks, Karen church groups will draw up a detailed
resettlement plan for Karen IDPs, with the first returns
going to Papun Township in eastern Karen State. The Karen
leader said Karen religious groups had registered 100,000
Christian Karen IDPs inside the Burmese border.


7. (C) COMMENT: Once an SPDC-KNU settlement is agreed, the
gate could open for a large influx of refugees and IDPs
wanting to return to what are now economically stagnant and
infrastructure-poor areas in Karen State, Mon State, and
Tenasserim Division. The UNHCR assessment missions over the
next several months, and NGO funding currently under
consideration, will do much to help prepare for possible
returns. END COMMENT.
Martinez