GOB PULLS THE PLUG ON BANGKOK II

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000514

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM TH
SUBJECT: GOB PULLS THE PLUG ON BANGKOK II

REF: A. RANGOON 487 AND PREVIOUS


B. BANGKOK 2527

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: According to an MFA contact, Burma has opted
out of the second meeting of the "Bangkok Process" and
requested a postponement of at least one month, likely part
of an effort to focus exclusively on reconvening the National
Convention on May 17. We suspect the GOB realizes that the
recent release of two NLD CEC members and the reopening of
NLD headquarters is, in the eyes of the international
community, no substitute for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Should the SPDC continue to detain ASSK, the generals are
likely to assiduously avoid any venue where criticism could
derail the reconvening of the Convention. End Summary.


2. (C) According to the Director of the Americas Division at
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U Thant Kyaw, the GOB has
officially informed the Thai Government that Burma will not
attend the second meeting of the "Bangkok Process," scheduled
for April 29-30.


3. (C) On April 23, U Thant Kyaw told us the GOB had informed
the RTG that Foreign Minister U Win Aung was "not available"
in late April and had therefore requested a postponement of
Bangkok II for "at least one month." He said that
discussions were under way between the GOB and the RTG to
identify a new date, a process that has been somewhat
hampered by the absence of Deputy FM U Khin Maung Win, who is
on leave following the untimely death of his wife earlier
this week.


4. (C) In response to our query on the reason for postponing
the meeting, U Thant Kyaw would only say that the "matter is
complicated and difficult to explain." He acknowledged that
FM Win Aung had previously agreed to attend the meeting and
noted that the RTG had already issued official invitations to
participants. However, he added, the FM is "involved in
serious matters and must be in Rangoon during the coming
weeks."


5. (C) Comment: We have seen several signs that the SPDC is
clearing the deck to prepare for the reconvening of the
National Convention on May 17. In addition to the Bangkok
meeting, the GOB has apparently postponed the next round of
peace talks with the KNU, which had been scheduled to resume
this month. Ultimately, however, the regime's motives
involve more than mere scheduling conflicts. Senior GOB
officials clearly realize that the recent release of two NLD
CEC members and the reopening of NLD headquarters is, in the
eyes of the international community, no substitute for the
release of Aung San Suu Kyi. Should the SPDC continue to
detain ASSK, the generals are likely to assiduously avoid any
venue where criticism could derail the reconvening of the
National Convention. End Comment.


6. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
Martinez