BURMA: MALAYSIAN AMBASSADOR BELIEVES GOB WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000487

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM MY
SUBJECT: BURMA: MALAYSIAN AMBASSADOR BELIEVES GOB WILL
POSTPONE BANGKOK II

REF: A. RANGOON 471

B. RANGOON 481

C. KUALA LUMPUR 1403

D. BANGKOK 2527

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Malaysia's ambassador to Burma believes that
the GOB is "firm" in wanting to postpone the April 29-30
Bangkok II meeting in order to avoid "getting clobbered" by
the international community. Nonetheless, he believes that
the signs are good ASSK will be released soon and assesses
that the NLD would be foolish to boycott the National
Convention. The Malaysian ambassador, more informed and
insightful than many of his ASEAN colleagues, gave us the
impression that Malaysia may use the Bangkok meeting and
other upcoming venues to press the SPDC to make more
progress. End Summary.


2. (C) On April 19 COM and P/E chief met with Malaysian
Ambassador Dato Cheah Sam Kip, continuing our round of calls
on Rangoon missions to discuss recent developments, including
preparations for a potential second meeting of the "Bangkok
Process" on Burma (ref A).


3. (C) Ambassador Cheah said that Malaysia had not yet
decided who to send to Bangkok II, scheduled for April 29-30,
but noted that his Foreign Minister had already received an
invitation from the Thai Government (RTG). He expressed
pleasure that Malaysia had been invited, noting somewhat
bitterly that neither the RTG nor the GOB had wanted his
country at the table for the initial meeting in December.
Cheah, observing that Malaysia had provided strong support
for Burma's effort to join ASEAN, said that the "SPDC is very
good at turning its friends into its enemies."


4. (C) According to Ambassador Cheah, the GOB has taken a
firm stance on postponing the Bangkok II meeting. Despite
Thai FM Surakiart's quick trip to Rangoon on April 10 to
press the GOB to stick to the meeting as scheduled (ref D),
the Burmese "do not want to go to Bangkok and get clobbered,
which will happen if Aung San Suu Kyi is not released."
Cheah agreed with the COM's observation that SPDC Chairman
Than Shwe was fearful of letting ASSK free to conduct party
business and the ambassador added that international
reaction, including that of Malaysia, would be "very adverse"
if the regime did not release her before reconvening the
National Convention on May 17.


5. (C) Cheah said that in his view the "signs are good" that
ASSK will be released very soon. He noted that Special Envoy
Razali was wrapping up a trip to Geneva and hoped to visit
ASSK "just after" her release. However, if she is not
released soon, he said, GOB participation in a Bangkok
meeting would be of no value. Therefore, Cheah continued,
absent further progress the Thai should not push to hold the
meeting as scheduled. He added that the regime shows no
desire to take on board suggestions from the international
community and merely "tolerates" the visits of (Special
Envoy) Razali and (Special Rapporteur) Pinheiro.


6. (C) Ambassador Cheah said it would be "foolhardy" of the
NLD to boycott the Convention process. "They absolutely must
participate," he added, "and we will give ASSK that message."
(Note: NLD CEC members told us later in the day that they
are "offended" that some countries insist the party must
partake in a process designed to rubber stamp a constitution
that is already drafted (ref B). End Note)


7. (C) Comment: Although we continue to have doubts about
"signs" that ASSK's release is imminent, Ambassador Cheah was
decidedly more informed and insightful than many of his ASEAN
colleagues in Rangoon (ref A). He noted with delight that
former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir had in recent days
apparently expressed disappointment with the pace of
democratization in Burma and had expressed "regret" over
bringing the country into ASEAN. Although available press
reports indicate that Mahathir was more circumspect in his
public remarks, Cheah intimated that Malaysia may seek to use
Bangkok II or other upcoming venues to press the SPDC to make
the National Convention and constitution drafting an
inclusive and more open process. End Comment.
Martinez