RANGOON MISSIONS ON PREPARATIONS FOR BANGKOK II

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000471

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM
SUBJECT: RANGOON MISSIONS ON PREPARATIONS FOR BANGKOK II

REF: A. RANGOON 456 AND PREVIOUS


B. BANGKOK 2413 AND PREVIOUS

C. KUALA LUMPUR 1403 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Our recent calls on six Rangoon-based EU and
ASEAN diplomatic missions to discuss the second meeting of
the "Bangkok Process" on Burma revealed a range of
assessments on the road that lies ahead. Most of the
missions believe that the SPDC will release ASSK within days
or weeks and they almost uniformly view the Bangkok Process
as a helpful mechanism to achieving forward movement. To the
contrary, we see every sign that the SPDC has agreed to
participate in Bangkok as a means to pacify the international
community. The generals intend, as always, to go where they
want, how they want, and when they want. End Summary.


2. (C) April 7-8 COM and P/E Chief called on a half dozen
available EU and ASEAN Ambassadors (and one Charge) to
discuss recent political developments and to gain insight
into the upcoming Bangkok meeting on Burma on April 30. Key
highlights follow in paras 3-7.


3. (C) The British:

-- Ambassador Vicky Bowman said that the RTG had not issued
an invitation to the UK to attend the Bangkok meeting nor had
the UK requested one. "However," she added, "we would go if
invited," noting that Foreign Secretary O'Brien was keen to
use any opportunity to press the GOB on the need to make
forward movement. In the interim, the UK is helping to push
for the EU to get a seat at the table.

-- Bowman expressed her strong "gut feeling" that the SPDC
will allow ASSK to meet with the entire NLD CEC o/a April 15
and then release her from house arrest a day or two later.
She cited a number of factors that lead her to this
conclusion: UN Special Envoy Razali's assessment that ASSK
will be released o/a April 17; pressure from the Thai and
other ASEAN countries; the upcoming ASEM meeting on April
17-18, the success of which hinges in part on progress in
Burma (on the latter point, Bowman said that the Japanese
have been telling the ASEAN countries that the EU "will
crumble" and let Burma participate in ASEM).

-- Bowman said her Home Office has prepared a draft statement
should ASSK be released within the next week or so. In that
statement, the UK would welcome ASSK's freedom and note that
their Ambassador in Rangoon "intends to see her as soon as
possible." We noted our doubts about ASSK's imminent
release, but agreed that contingency language was sensible,
given that Rangoon will shut down for water festival April
12-16. However, we advised that it might be more helpful to
note that the British Ambassador "hopes" to see ASSK, given
that ASSK's intentions are unknown. We also noted that if
Washington issued a statement upon her release, the USG would
also likely call for the reopening of NLD offices.


4. (C) The Germans:

-- Charge d'affaires Christoph Retzlaff said that an MFA Asia
Director (A/S equivalent) would represent Germany at the
Bangkok II meeting. He said that new participants for the
next round include Norway, Switzerland, Bangladesh, Laos, and
Malaysia. He added that the EU wants an invitation, but the
Thai are being "cautious."

-- Retzlaff said that Germany had no illusions about the
value of the Bangkok Process, observing that it was not a
decision-making mechanism and Burmese FM Win Aung had no
mandate from the SPDC to negotiate. However, he said, it is
a positive development that the GOB actually agrees to
discuss internal matters and, in turn, may be "influenced
when exposed to the international community."

-- Retzlaff observed that it is very clear that the entire
road map process depends on the participation of the NLD.
The SPDC may now be in a "comfortable" position, having
announced the reconvening of the National Convention, but the
regime will lose all credibility if the process is not open
and inclusive.

-- According to Retzlaff, the German Embassy recently took
the lead on an EU joint demarche on the GOB which provided
suggestions for a successful National Convention and urged
the adoption of democratic procedures in drafting a new
constitution. "The problem," he said, "is that these guys
don't react to the outside world."


5. (C) The French:

-- Ambassador Jean-Michel Lacombe said that the Quai's Asia
Director (A/S equivalent) will represent France at Bangkok
II, but will first travel to Rangoon to "see as many people
as he can." France, said Lacombe, wants to give the Bangkok
Process a chance to work.

-- Lacombe said he believed ASSK would soon be released and
opined that the GOB would not have announced the reconvening
of the National Convention "without some understanding with
her." We observed that the regime had likely made the
surprise announcement to reconvene at an earlier date than
expected simply to be in a position to bring a "deliverable"
to the Bangkok meeting.

-- Lacombe added that he felt enhancing EU sanctions would be
counterproductive and described such action as "more for
domestic consumption in Europe" than for having an impact in
Burma where the GOB has ample economic support from
neighboring countries.


6. (C) The Italians

-- Italy plans to "downgrade" their participation at Bangkok
II from Deputy Foreign Minister to the Asia Director level.
Ambassador Raffaele Miniero said that Italy would advocate a
carrot and stick approach to the SPDC. "We must be careful
and not say the road map is rubbish," Miniero said. "We
didn't react when the regime released ASSK in 2002 and they
failed to continue forward progress."

-- In this regard, Miniero said, Italy was prepared to
discuss at Bangkok II possible assistance to Burma if the
regime takes appropriate steps. COM replied that simply
reconvening the National Convention should not be the only
measure of progress; the regime must release ASSK and other
NLD leaders and allow full participation and transparency in
the drafting of a new constitution.

-- Miniero said he recently met with Burmese Deputy Foreign
Minister U Kyaw Thu and told the DFM that the GOB needed to
have ASSK and the NLD on board in order to have a successful
road map process. The DFM responded, "Don't expect too
much." Miniero concluded that the GOB is not worried about
the National Convention process, but has greater concerns
about national elections and how some among the international
community will respond. He added that the GOB only wants to
do something that is acceptable to ASEAN, especially in time
to host the ASEAN Summit in 2006, and doesn't care about the
West.


7. (C) The Lao and the Cambodians:

-- Lao Ambassador Chanthavy Bodhisane said that Laos would
join Bangkok II "to gain understanding about how the process
is unfolding." He said he had no confirmation from Vientiane
that the GOL had accepted an invitation from the RTG, but
said that Laos would participate as recognition of "growing
Lao-Thai cooperation."

-- We inquired if Laos intended to approach the Burmese
pro-democracy opposition to gain their perspective before
Bangkok II. Bodhisane replied, "No way."

-- Cambodian Ambassador Hul Phany said he had read in Bangkok
papers that Cambodia would be invited to Bangkok II. "We
would go if invited," he said, "but we have received no
invitation."

-- Phany said that a National Convention without ASSK and the
NLD "would not be interesting." He said that all political
parties must be allowed to participate and he expressed hope
that negotiations would lead to a new constitution.


8. (C) Comment: If the Rangoon missions are any indication,
EU governments will use Bangkok II as an opportunity to
gently prod the GOB in the right direction, while the ASEAN
governments are prepared to accept the minimal steps taken
thus far as sufficient evidence the GOB is already on the
right track. Both approaches are premised in part on the
assumption that SPDC leaders accept that the Bangkok Process
will provide sign posts that they need to follow on their
road map to democracy. To the contrary, we see every sign
that the SPDC has agreed to participate in Bangkok as a means
to pacify the international community. They intend, as
always, to go where they want, how they want, and when they
want. End Comment.

Martinez