NLD ISSUES ULTIMATUM TO THAN SHWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001563

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM BM NLD
SUBJECT: NLD ISSUES ULTIMATUM TO THAN SHWE

REF: A. RANGOON 1530 AND PREVIOUS

B. RANGOON 1149 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Excerpts from a December 2nd letter from the
NLD to Senior General Than Shwe indicate a new effort to
engage the SPDC and prompt a bilateral dialogue. The letter
is purportedly the "soft" approach, which, if ignored, will
be followed up by more "confrontational methods." Though the
Committee to Represent the People's Parliament (controlled by
the NLD but also representing ethnic political parties) has
endorsed this approach, we have our doubts that if push comes
to shove the Committee's minority group of non-NLD ethnic
members will take personal risks without some promise of a
seat at the negotiating table should the regime agree to
talk. End summary.

NLD Issues Ultimatum


2. (SBU) On December 9th, the NLD released a statement
including a portion of a letter dated December 2nd from the
NLD Central Executive Committee (CEC) to SPDC Chairman Senior
General Than Shwe. The NLD has not made available the rest
of the clearly lengthy correspondence. The portion released
calls for a genuine and open dialogue "clear of grudges" and
based on "mutual respect," "understanding," and "cooperation"
to commence between the SPDC and the NLD. It does not call
for tripartite discussions, but notes that unity of all
ethnic parties and groups is essential for "a strong and
everlasting nation." Dialogue, the letter states, is the
only way to ensure a "strong and stable Union" into the
future. It reiterates the importance the NLD places on
national reconciliation and national unity and seeks common
ground with Than Shwe by quoting statements he made in a
mid-November speech that stress the importance of "national
unity" as the foundation of democracy.


3. (SBU) The statement notes that the Committee to Represent
the People's Parliament (CRPP, formed by the NLD in 1998 to
represent 14 ethnic and non-ethnic political parties),
endorses the contents of the letter and calls for a dialogue
to commence before the Burmese Independence Day holiday on
January 4th. There are no consequences spelled out if this
deadline is ignored or missed.

CRPP's Warning Shot?


4. (C) According to a reliable CRPP source, the letter to
Than Shwe is the brainchild of the NLD-dominated CRPP, which
met on November 18th and again on the 29th to work on the
draft. According to the source, the CRPP decided to try
first offering an olive branch to Than Shwe, convincing him
that the two sides were after the same objective and thus
good-faith negotiations should occur. The source told us
that the CRPP agreed that if this soft approach fails "more
confrontational" methods would be used to break the political
deadlock. The source refused to hint at what these methods
might be. One proposal suggested in late August by some of
the more impatient NLD regional leaders was to convene a
shadow "People's Parliament" (ref B). However, this
provocative act still seems an unlikely move with NLD leaders
Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo under house arrest.

Comment: A Risky Strategy


5. (C) The CRPP runs some risks by issuing an ultimatum
promising a "confrontational approach" should it be ignored.
Internal CRPP politics and discussions are not clear, but we
have doubts that the Committee's minority group of non-NLD
ethnic members would agree wholeheartedly to take personal
risks by actively confronting the SPDC without some guarantee
of a seat at the negotiating table should the regime agree to
talk. We would be surprised if the SPDC responds favorably
to this initial soft-line. If the deadline passes, and the
NLD CEC decides to push for implementation of more aggressive
measures, unity of the CRPP could come under strain. End
comment.
MARTINEZ