BURMESE JUNTA CHIEF TO SEEK INDIAN ENLIGHTENMENT?

S E C R E T RANGOON 001374

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA; HANOI FOR EAP DAS
HUHTALA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON BM IN
SUBJECT: BURMESE JUNTA CHIEF TO SEEK INDIAN ENLIGHTENMENT?

REF: A. RANGOON 1370 AND PREVIOUS

B. 03 RANGOON 1452

C. SECSTATE 225960

D. NEW DELHI 6040 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Despite a week of significant political
change in Burma, we have seen no signs that SPDC Chairman
Senior General Than Shwe plans to cancel a trip planned to
India on October 24. If Than Shwe travels as planned, it
would be an additional sign that the SPDC has effected a
seamless, and bloodless, ouster of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt
as well as further indication of rapidly warming Burma-India
relations. End Summary.


2. (C) Despite a week of tumultuous political change in
Burma, including the dramatic ouster of Prime Minister
General Khin Nyunt, we have seen no signs that SPDC Chairman
Senior General Than Shwe plans to cancel his upcoming trip to
India. Sources within the Government of Burma, and at the
Indian Embassy in Rangoon, tell us that Than Shwe will depart
Rangoon, as scheduled, on Sunday October 24 for a five-day
trip to New Delhi and several upcountry sites.


3. (C) The trip, if it takes place, will be Than Shwe's first
to India and the first visit of a Burmese Head of State in
over 20 years (former dictator Ne Win visited India in 1980).
The GOB characteristically has not released a delegation
list, but sources indicate that dozens of senior government
and military officials will join the entourage as well as
several Than Shwe family members.


4. (SBU) The 71-year old Senior General is an infrequent
traveler, and rarely ventures outside out Burma. His last
foreign trip was to China in January 2003. By all accounts,
his planned trip to India is entirely motivated by a personal
desire to see the neighboring country before he dies.
Reportedly, highlights of trip will include visits to holy
Buddhist sites, including a pilgrimage to Buddha-gaya, the
birthplace of Buddha in Utter Pradesh. The Indian Embassy
also adds that Than Shwe is expected to meet with President
Kalam, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and Minister of
External Affairs Natwar Singh.


5. (S) GOB sources, and the Indian Embassy, have downplayed
expectations that the trip will produce any deliverables.
However, according to secret GOB documents, at least one
ministry (Communications, Posts, and Telegraphs) expects the
trip to result in the implementation of several dozen
projects envisioned in an August 2003 MOU between the two
countries. The projects include cooperation, and Indian
assistance, in a variety of technical areas, mostly involving
information technology. An additional priority for the GOB
is implementation of projects under an existing Indian soft
loan of over $10 million.


6. (C) Comment: If Than Shwe travels as planned, it would be
an additional sign that the SPDC has effected a seamless, and
bloodless, ouster of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and is
comfortable enough to continue with regime business as usual
(ref A). The trip would also be a further indication of
rapidly warming Burma-India relations, highlighted by a 2003
visit to Rangoon by Indian Vice President Bhairon Singh
Shekhawat (ref B) and, in the interim, a plethora of
senior-level exchanges. India's "Look East" policy (ref C),
placing a priority on economic and security goals and on
balancing China's influence, is warmly welcomed by a Burmese
regime delighted that yet another neighboring country is
willing to leave democracy and human rights off of the
bilateral agenda. As the Indian Ambassador recently told the
COM and other diplomats: "India's overriding concern is a
good relationship with this (Burmese) government;
democracy... is secondary." End Comment.
Martinez