RAZALI'S HOPES FOR BURMA MEETINGS IN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001268

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM
SUBJECT: RAZALI'S HOPES FOR BURMA MEETINGS IN NEW YORK

REF: A. RANGOON 914 (RAZALI REP SAYS UNSYG WILL PURSUE
BURMA MTG)

B. KUALA LUMPUR 3400 (ENVOY PROPOSES CONSULTS IN NY)

C. RANGOON 1237 (NEW FOREIGN AFFAIRS TEAM)

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: According to UN Special Envoy Razali's
Rangoon-based liaison, broad consultations on the margins of
the UNGA at the end of September will be a difficult
undertaking, but are essential in order to achieve a greater
consensus on "what is absolutely necessary for the (Burmese)
regime to gain credibility" with their road map. However,
the regime's declining regard for a UN or international
community role means that the New York meetings are unlikely
to produce meaningful results inside Burma. Nonetheless, a
tighter international consensus would be a helpful outcome.
End Summary.


2. (C) COM and P/E chief met on September 21 with Leon de
Riedmatten, Rangoon-based liaison for UN Special Envoy
Razali. De Riedmatten will join Razali for a round of
Burma-related meetings in Washington and New York September
27-October 1. According to de Riedmatten, Razali has made
"six or seven" unsuccessful requests to visit Burma since his
March trip, but the regime has declined "because they have
nothing to offer and fear subsequent criticism" should Razali
visit and leave empty-handed.


3. (C) De Riedmatten said that UNSYG Kofi Annan will chair
consultations on Burma in New York on September 29, in a
session "restricted to fourteen or so countries," including
the United States. Senior UN official Danilo Turk will chair
a larger Burma session the following day, September 30, as a
reinvigoration of the International Consultative Group on
Myanmar (ICGM). Prior to the New York meetings, de
Riedmatten said, Razali plans to consult at the Department
with Deputy Secretary Armitage, EAP A/S Kelly, and others as
well as officials at the NSC, although he plans to limit his
time in Washington "in order to avoid drawing too much
attention to his Burma dialogue with the United States."


4. (C) Although Burma is not invited to the UNSYG-chaired
meeting, de Riedmatten said the session will be difficult
because countries in the Southeast Asia region believe their
participation "will jeopardize relations with the regime."
De Riedmatten said there were already indications that China,
which prefers the "safer" Bangkok process, might decline the
New York invitation.


5. (C) De Riedmatten said that Razali would approach the New
York meetings as a way to achieve a greater consensus on
"what is absolutely necessary for the (Burmese) regime to
gain credibility" with their road map. He added that it
would be important for the Western countries and the Asian
countries to reach some agreement on how to approach the
regime. "It will be helpful if the neighborhood agrees on
the fundamentals," said de Riedmatten, "which Razali can
bring to the table with the SPDC." De Riedmatten emphasized
that, from his and Razali's perspective, the outcome of the
New York meetings depends entirely on the interest and
engagement of the international community. "At the moment,
Burma is far from a top priority," de Riedmatten said, "but
we need to pull together" on this issue.


6. (C) The COM observed that the regime will never agree to
even the most minimal steps necessary for forward movement,
such as releasing ASSK and allowing the NLD to operate
freely. De Riedmatten agreed, and added that the SPDC is
squarely focused on concluding political arrangements with
the ethnic cease-fire groups and "has no intention" of giving
space to the pro-democracy movement.


7. (C) Comment: De Riedmatten has had low expectations for
several months that the New York meeting(s) will produce
meaningful results inside Burma (ref A). The recent
appointment of two active duty military officers, with
absolutely no foreign affairs experience, as Foreign Minister
and Deputy Foreign Minister (ref C) are additional signs of
the regime's declining regard for a UN or international
community role in helping to achieve an inclusive political
dialogue. However, a tighter international consensus would
be helpful and perhaps the UNSYG's August 17 statement on
Burma, criticizing the National Convention process, can
create a framework for the New York discussions and efforts
to define what would make a legitimate political transition.
Martinez