GOB INDIFFERENT TO HISTORIC FLOODING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001151

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AID/ANE
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB, AND IO
BANGKOK FOR AID
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2014
TAGS: SENV EAGR ECON PGOV BM
SUBJECT: GOB INDIFFERENT TO HISTORIC FLOODING

REF: RANGOON 625 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Record rainfall in July and August led to
historic flooding throughout Burma, rendering thousands
homeless and causing severe damage to rice crops. The
Burmese regime denied that any flooding occurred and arrested
individuals for distributing video footage of flooded towns.
GOB efforts to reclaim damaged fields and replant rice will
do little to thwart the likelihood of a decline in national
rice production for 2004. However, the GOB could prolong an
ongoing rice export ban to avoid social unrest stemming from
shortages or price increases. End Summary.


2. (U) Unusually heavy monsoon rains in July and August led
to severe flooding in most low-lying areas of Burma. The
Irrawaddy river peaked on July 27 at 1.4 meters in Mandalay,
the highest recorded level in 30 years, rendering thousands
of people homeless and temporarily cutting off the Mandalay
International airport. Water levels in Bago Division were
still well above the danger mark at the end of August, after
reaching the second highest recorded level in history. The
Chindwin and Thanlwin rivers also rose above the danger
level, flooding dozens of towns, submerging aquaculture
farms, and pushing dams and reservoirs beyond capacity.
According to NGOs and local officials, farmers lost homes,
livestock, and acres of rice fields, as well as rice stored
for domestic consumption.


3. (C) Sources at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation
tell us privately that over 200,000 acres of rice may have
been seriously damaged or lost. Although casualties were
minimal, local villagers report that as waters recede they
face fouled wells, infectious diseases, and poisonous snakes
forced into inhabited areas. Neither the GOB nor the Myanmar
Red Cross (MRC) have released official damage figures, but
Embassy sources report that floods may have displaced over
100,000 households.


4. (C) The Burmese regime has reacted predictably to this
latest natural disaster. Several senior GOB officials denied
to Embassy officers than any flooding had occurred or
downplayed the impact by describing rising rivers as a
seasonal phenomenon ("A little water won't hurt anyone" said
one MFA official). In late August we received credible
reports that military intelligence had arrested several
individuals for distributing videos of flooding in Kachin
State.


5. (U) SPDC Secretary 2, Lt. Gen Thein Sein, emerged
mid-flooding to inspect affected areas, but official press
coverage made no mention of damage or casualties. Private
journals refrained from covering the flooding for fear of
political backlash, although one obscure health magazine
cited the distribution of lunch packets to flood victims in
Sagaing, providing some Burmese with the only domestic
reports of the flooding. The Myanmar Times, a
government-affiliated weekly newspaper, devoted some coverage
in late August to flooding, but minimized the damage by
emphasizing casualties in neighboring India and Bangladesh.


6. (C) UN agencies, who concede they were caught off guard by
a cyclone that hit Rakhine State in May, tell us that they
have been prepared for the past two months to provide
emergency flood relief at a moment's notice. However, the
regime has declined to request foreign assistance. The MRC
provided evacuation assistance and privately admits that
farmers who lost rice crops may require long-term aid.
Additional groups that mobilized with assistance include
Swiss Aid, the Metta Foundation (a reputable and independent
Burmese NGO to which U.S. mission employees and FSNs have
privately contributed funds and clothing to help flood
victims),the Kachin Baptist Convention, World Vision, and
the National League for Democracy. These organizations have
assisted with cleaning wells and procuring mosquito netting,
sand bags, oral rehydration packets, rice, and drinking
water.


7. (C) Comment: Officially, the GOB says that efforts are
underway to reclaim flooded farmlands and replant damaged
rice crops. With only two months left in the growing season,
these efforts will do little to thwart the likelihood of a
drastically reduced rice yield and a corresponding fall in
national rice production for 2004. However, due to the GOB's
rice export ban (reftel),there are considerable stocks of
rice in the hands of traders and millers (an estimated
300,000 metric tons). The GOB will certainly not admit to a
fall in production and could prolong the export ban to avoid
social unrest stemming from a shortage or an increase in
price. "Creative" exemptions to the export ban, however,
will permit the GOB to continue to earn much-needed foreign
exchange. End Comment.
Martinez