EX-FINMIN MAY REPLACE CAREER DIP AS AMB-DESIGNATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003302

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EC
SUBJECT: EX-FINMIN MAY REPLACE CAREER DIP AS AMB-DESIGNATE

REF: QUITO 3151

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: GoE President Lucio Gutierrez is
reconsidering his earlier designation of career diplomat
Roberto Betancourt to head Ecuador's embassy in Washington
(Reftel). According to separate Embassy Quito sources,
former Minister of Finance Mauricio Pozo now appears the
preferred candidate, although Foreign Minister Patricio
Zuquilanda, Betancourt's primary patron, is fighting the
switch. U.S.-educated, a thoughtful technocrat and
well-liked in IFI circles, Pozo is a fine choice to represent
Ecuador in Washington. Despite our obvious preference for
the ex-minister and our intention to "lobby" discreetly, the
Embassy will avoid the appearance of taking sides in the
brewing appointment battle. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Over lunch December 15, GoE Presidential Secretary
Carlos Polit informed the Ambassador that Gutierrez was
mulling a change for Ecuador's mission in Washington. Rather
than Betancourt, for whom the GoE recently had requested
agrement, the president was considering Mauricio Pozo, one of
the architects and chief proponents of the GoE's responsible
economic program. (Pozo resigned office in early 2004,
placating Gutierrez's populist, left-leaning opposition and
perhaps extending the president's tenure. The transition
between him and his successor, the ideologically similar
Mauricio Yepez, was this administration's smoothest and
reflects the continued close relationship between Pozo and
Gutierrez.)


3. (C) Pozo would make a fine chief of mission, the
Ambassador asserted, extolling his reputation in Washington,
impeccable economic credentials and prominence in
international financial institution (IFI) ranks. Careful to
avoid the impression of overt lobbying, she also praised
competitor Betancourt's professional expertise. The Embassy
must tread lightly over GoE personnel decisions, the
Ambassador explained, and not provide grist to rabid
nationalists on constant alert for signs of "U.S. meddling."


4. (C) The Ambassador raised the Washington vacancy during
her December 16 call on Gutierrez. The president
unfortunately refused the bait and moved quickly to other
topics of conversation. Following up, she hosted Pozo for
breakfast December 23. After discussing the Andean Free
Trade Agreement and Ecuador's recent, positive macroeconomic
performance, she queried the former finance minister on
future career plans. Pozo revealed that Carlos Polit wanted
him in Washington. Running the mission intrigued him,
although he worried that Ecuador's volatile political
environment meant he would enjoy little job security. As
"insurance," he pondered whether to demand a guaranteed
follow-on assignment at a more stable multilateral
organization.


5. (C) Pozo's character, background, and political savvy
made him a tremendous ambassadorial candidate, the Ambassador
offered. Trade issues would dominate the short-term
U.S.-Ecuador bilateral relationship, with technical Andean
FTA negotiations nearing conclusion and the difficult stage
-- obtaining political buy-in from respective legislatures --
remaining. Pozo's previous experience lobbying Ecuador's
Congress could prove invaluable, she asserted. While the
Foreign Ministry already had requested agrement for career
diplomat Roberto Betancourt, that process could be halted,
should the GoE desire. The Ambassador again emphasized she
must avoid the impression of favoring a candidate, however.


6. (C) Later December 23, Polit telephoned the Ambassador to
recount his recent conversation with the president.
Gutierrez loved the idea of Pozo in Washington. Foreign
Minister Patricio Zuquilanda did not, however, and was
pushing the president to keep his commitment to Betancourt.
Polit's unspoken (but barely) request was that the Ambassador
call Gutierrez in support of Pozo's candidacy.


7. (C) COMMENT: On both substance and personality, Post's
preferred candidate for the Washington mission is Pozo; his
continuing friendship with the president is gravy. Further,
our relations with this impressive ex-minister were always
top-notch and our access immediate, things we cannot say of
Betancourt. In this battle, however, we must be stiletto,
not battle-axe. First, the optics are terrible -- hint of
our involvement could easily reach the loser. Were it
Betancourt, the Foreign Ministry might leak the news
immediately, spawning a media firestorm over U.S.
"interference." Worse, MFA resentment could tarnish
working-level relations we need to advance key substantive
issues (Article 98 comes to mind) and ensure the Embassy
receives adequate MFA administrative support.


8. (C) We also worry a jilted MFA could make Pozo's days
difficult in Washington. Ecuador's last ambassador, Raul
Gangotena, too enjoyed a close relationship with Gutierrez.
Poor dealings with Zuquilanda resulted in his isolation,
limited effectiveness, and eventual short tenure, however.
END COMMENT.
KENNEY