Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04QUITO3168
2004-12-07 23:05:00
SECRET
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECUADORIAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL MARR EC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003168 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECUADORIAN
DEMOCRACY

REF: QUITO 3081

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003168

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECUADORIAN
DEMOCRACY

REF: QUITO 3081

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d)


1. (S) President Gutierrez' call for a special Congressional
session, while controversial, is unlikely to directly
threaten political stability. Nevertheless, this event bears
watching, given the proven potential for Congressional
conflicts to lead to unforeseen consequences on stability in
this country. In our view, the opposition is not poised to
convert Congressional controversy into mass mobilization in
the short run, pushing off prospects for serious instability
at least into the new year. Serious potential challenges to
political stability remain, however. We have persistently
encouraged Gutierrez and the opposition to respect
constitutional due process, and see further opportunities for
the USG to fortify Ecuadorian democracy in the near future.
End Summary.

Special Session Controversial
--------------


2. (C) SepTel reports the controversial call by President
Gutierrez for a special session of Congress on December 8 to
discuss various judicial reforms. The controversy stems from
the methods favored by the government to replace the members
of the Supreme Court, largely affiliated with the PSC.
Constitutional controversy centers on whether the Congress
has authority to interfere in Court activities under the 1998
constitution. Gutierrez is apparently willing to press its
tentative and simple majority to take further steps into a
constitutional grey area, if only to maintain its momentum in
the run-up to selection of the Congressional leadership on
January 5. Defense Minister Herrera immediately expressed
full military for the government.


3. (C) The opposition, meanwhile, seems unprepared to
capitalize on the situation. However, the indigenous
movement remains divided and focused on changing its
leadership later this month, delaying the potential for
massive anti-government protest. The Democratic Left is
still being consolidated under the new leadership of
Guillermo Lanzaduri, who was recently elected party president
after a dismal effort as President of Congress. And the main

opposition PSC has yet to recover after the early demise of
its impeachment effort. Party leader Febres Cordero has
become a target of opportunity for the government, rallying
elements of the opposition behind the government's effort to
limit his party's power in the judiciary.

More Challenges Ahead
--------------


4. (C) Several events over the coming month are likely to
increase the potential for political instability, including:

-- the effects of a rumored Cabinet shakeup, especially if it
affects the defense minister (the economic team will not
change, according to Gutierrez);

-- the looming fight over Congressional leadership positions,
which affects all Congressional factions;

-- the anti-government potential of the indigenous movement;

-- the Government's proposed (but unrevealed) referendum to
promote political reforms, possibly including reorganization
of the courts, giving the President the power to dissolve
Congress, and permitting re-election of the President;

-- the destabilizing prospect of the possible return from
exile of former president Abdala Bucaram.

Opportunities
--------------


5. (C) While the challenges to this government's longevity
remain daunting, we see many opportunities to promote respect
for political stability and democratic institutions.

-- The Ambassador strongly cautioned the President to respect
democratic due process in their last meeting, on December 2.

-- We have redoubled our outreach with members of the
alliance and the opposition, encouraging all to respect
constitutional limits.

-- We will closely monitor the special session on December 8
and the indigenous movement's selection of new leaders on
December 19-20.

-- After a hiatus in contact with PSC leader Febres-Cordero,
who masterminded the ill-fated impeachment effort, CG
Guayaquil and PolCouns will re-engage with him.

-- Former President Bush's private visit to Guayaquil has
been rescheduled for January 14, and may include a meeting
with Gutierrez.

-- DAO and MLGRP will continue to closely monitor key
military units and the military hierarchy's posture for signs
of concern or opposition.
Comment
--------------

6. (S) The President's efforts to purge the judiciary of PSC
influence do raise serious constitutional issues, and will
certainly not contribute to democratic stability. U.S.
interests mandate continued vigilance and engagement, but we
are reluctant to inject ourselves publicly into the
still-evolving Congressional debate over judicial and
political reform. The President's congressional gambit could
well fail, and at a minimum risks a change in political
momentum which could rejuvenate the opposition. Serious
destabilization of the government, however, is more likely to
come from the streets than from Congressional debate (barring
renewed impeachment efforts),where the distracted indigenous
movement traditionally holds sway, or from the military,
which shows no signs of unrest.

KENNEY