Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04QUITO3146
2004-12-02 22:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

CONGRESS GOES ON HOLIDAY, BUT REST UNLIKELY

Tags:  PGOV PREL EC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003146 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: CONGRESS GOES ON HOLIDAY, BUT REST UNLIKELY

REF: QUITO 3108

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, for reason 1.4 (b&d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003146

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: CONGRESS GOES ON HOLIDAY, BUT REST UNLIKELY

REF: QUITO 3108

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, for reason 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: Congress ended its stormy fall calendar on
December 2, releasing its combative politicians until January

4. Political leaders are likely to stay busy during holiday
season, as all parties regroup for the battle over
Congressional leadership and control of the Supreme Court set
to recommence next month. Having survived an impeachment
attempt, President Gutierrez and his new allies have seized
the political offensive from pro-impeachment forces,
capitalizing on resentment of the PSC to purge its influence
in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and Constitutional Court
using dubious legislative tactics (RefTel). In a meeting
with the Ambassador on December 2, Gutierrez defended his
tactics as intended to strengthen Ecuador's democratic
institutions. With the balance in Congress still very fluid,
political maneuvering (and the potential for disturbances)
will intensify as January approaches, with both sides seeking
to attract Congressional swing votes. End Summary.

President Sees Things Differently
--------------


2. (C) At a breakfast with President Gutierrez on December
2, the Ambassador and DCM expressed concern about the current
combative political situation and questionable moves by the
government's new "progressive alliance," emphasizing the need
for respect for constitutional due process and democratic
institutions, including Congress and the judiciary. The
Ambassador urged the president to increase transparency by
explaining to the public the content of proposed political
reforms and the government's respect for constitutional
guarantees and due process. She also suggested that
Gutierrez maintain political dialogue with the opposition.


3. (C) Gutierrez appeared confident and assured. He said
this was not a personal vendetta against PSC leader Leon
Febres-Cordero, as some have portrayed it. While slyly
acknowledging his own "political interests," Gutierrez went
on to claim that constitutionality was his foremost concern
in drafting still-unrevealed political reforms to shrink the
size of Congress, reduced the mandatory retirement of Supreme
Court justices, and purge the courts of interference by

political parties. Nor is the government targeting
Febres-Cordero's family for economic retribution, he claimed.
Rather, the government is seeking to recoup debts owed by
more than 200 individuals, not just members of
Febres-Cordero's family.


4. (C) Political reforms soon to be proposed by the
government, Gutierrez said, will be submitted to Congress as
draft legislation, not as a popular referendum. The
government is reaching out to all parties to support the
reforms; he recognized that there are reasonable members of
the ID and PSC, apart from the top leadership. While joining
in praise for former Government Minister Raul Baca, Gutierrez
justified Baca's replacement with Jaime Damerval, which had
succeeded in diverting political heat away from the person of
the President.

Will the "Progressive Alliance" Endure?
--------------


5. (C) The so-called progressive alliance of
PSP-PRE-PRIAN-MPD-Socialists-Independents united to purge the
electoral tribunal and Constitutional Court of PSC control on
November 25. Since doing so, however, leftist small party
members (MPD and Socialists) have publicly declared that
their participation in the alliance is over. Our PRIAN
contacts dispute that claim, saying the alliance will last at
least through the selection of new Congressional leadership
on January 5 (giving the PRE the presidency),and possibly
through reform of the Supreme Court in early 2005.
Negotiations continue within the alliance over how to go
about the court reform (the PRIAN opposes the PRE's wish to
do so by simple resolution, which would violate
constitutional principles),and who gets what positions in
Congress (in addition to the Presidency and two vice
presidencies, the presidencies of all 15 Congressional
Committees are up for grabs).

Opposition Rising?
--------------


6. (C) PSC insiders have told us that Febres-Cordero is
still in shock over the November 9 impeachment defeat in
Congress. Febres-Cordero is on his heels, they said, and had
not expected Gutierrez to turn things around so quickly and
take the offensive. PSC leaders are firmly convinced that
the progressive alliance's actions against the electoral
tribunal and constitutional court were unconstitutional;
destitution required a 2/3 vote, not the simple majority
used. The Administration is reaching out to the PSC through
intermediaries, offering to back off its anti-PSC campaign if
the PSC ousted corrupt Febres-Cordero nephew Miguel Orellana
and confidant Xavier Neira. The PSC wants nothing to do with
the Congressional presidency, leaving it to the ID and PRE to
fight it out.


7. (C) Other opposition leaders, meanwhile, discount the
prospects of the alliance enduring through January 5, and are
courting the alliance's leftist "swing vote." Democratic
Left (ID) legislative leaders warn that a PRE presidency of
Congress would be disastrous for democratic institutions, as
that party seeks to dismantle charges against its exiled
leader, permitting his return. The PRE would ultimately turn
on the government and compete directly for votes in the 2006
presidential election with PRIAN presidential hopeful Alvaro
Noboa.


8. (C) Meanwhile, indigenous leaders are fighting among
themselves. Indigenous umbrella organization CONAIE will
choose its leadership later this month. Pachakutik recently
expelled four of its eleven Congressional deputies.
Pachakutik leader Jorge Guaman told us on December 2 that the
President had called seeking his support for political
reform. Pachakutik will not agree absent concrete support
for indigenous priorities. He warned that the alliance's
tactic of expelling sitting justices with a simple majority
was a distortion of the legislative process and a precedent
which could be used against Gutierrez in the future.
Indigenous demonstrations are unlikely in December, he said,
but might occur in January, depending on the situation.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) President Gutierrez has again demonstrated canny
survival instincts but we need to continue to fortify GoE
respect for democratic institutions and constitutional
procedure. With the reversal of fortunes on Thanksgiving
Day, the Gutierrez Administration backed off earlier threats
by some members of the GoE--although not Gutierrez
personally--to dissolve Congress. Since then, there have
been few signs of a PSC counter-offensive or an indigenous
mobilization in the works; both are more likely to take place
in January than in December. Regardless, we are redoubling
our outreach with political party leaders of all parties,
counseling respect for constitutional processes and seeking
to anticipate possible future instability. All actors agree
that the holidays will be busy for political leaders of all
stripes, and that results will be publicly revealed on
January 5 when the Congress decides on its leadership.
KENNEY