Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04QUITO3081
2004-11-24 20:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

GOE PRESSES ITS LUCK -- NEXT STEPS ON STABILITY

Tags:  PGOV PREL MARR EC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003081 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: GOE PRESSES ITS LUCK -- NEXT STEPS ON STABILITY

REF: QUITO 3037

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003081

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: GOE PRESSES ITS LUCK -- NEXT STEPS ON STABILITY

REF: QUITO 3037

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: A concerted USG effort to promote political
stability contributed to the lessening of political tension
over impeachment, and will continue to be important in the
aftermath. Although the situation has calmed somewhat since
the failure of an opposition initiative to impeach President
Lucio Gutierrez on November 9, Congress remains fractured and
conflictive. Seeking to reverse its fortunes, but at the
risk of making things worse, the Gutierrez government has
launched a counter-offensive against the PSC and its leader,
Leon Febres-Cordero, attacking his family's wealth, the PSC'
sinecure in the courts, and working to deny the PSC or its
allies top leadership positions in Congress. The result of
this counter-offensive will become apparent on January 5,
when the Congress chooses new leadership. In this context
of continued conflict and political uncertainty, we believe
it vital for the USG to continue to exploit opportunities to
promote democratic stability in Ecuador. End Summary.

Background on USG Democracy Stabilization Efforts
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) On the eve of a preliminary vote on impeachment
proceedings, the Ambassador spoke to the press on the margins
of a US company donation ceremony on November 5, noting
strong USG support for constitutional democracy, our respect
for the votes cast by Ecuadorians in 2002 in a free and fair
election and our strong belief that stability favors economic
growth and poverty reduction. The Ambassador's remarks made
headlines and contributed to the subsequent cooling of
impeachment fervor inside and outside of Congress.


3. (C) Members of the country team and ConGen Guayaquil have
echoed the Ambassador's message to key contacts in
government, the military, and civil society. We have also
used a series of high-level USG visits to reinforce the
Ambassador's public message with key players in private.
SecDef Rumsfeld emphasized USG support for democratic
institutions, including Congress, to President Gutierrez and

Defense Minister Herrera on November 16. General Craddock
made similar points to the Ecuadorian high command on the
margins of the Defense Ministerial of the Americas conclave.
We enlisted visiting Commerce DAS Walter Bastian and USTR
spokesman Richard Mills to include political/economic
stability points in their appearance before an influential
private sector audience on November 11.

Opportunities/Next Steps
--------------


4. (C) We will soon have other opportunities to stress USG
support for Ecuadorian democracy and stability. Former
President Bush's visit to Guayaquil has been postponed until
December; he had helpfully declined a private invitation from
Febres-Cordero, and had earlier declined a meeting in Houston
requested during the impeachment process by Vice President
Alfredo Palacio. Former President Bush has agreed to include
an emphasis on political stability in his speech to
influential private sector leaders in Febres-Cordero's
presence. Next, CoDel Weller is slated to visit in January,
and can help encourage the new Congressional leadership get
down to the business of governance after a long series of
diversions.


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Gutierrez government faces a series
of challenges/opportunities in coming months. On November
24, Gutierrez' PSP joined with a coalition reportedly
including the PRE, PRIAN, independents, MPD, the Socialist
Party, and others to propose that Jorge Montero, a Congress
member for the coastal Concentration of Popular Forces party
(CFP),be named second vice president of Congress. Media
speculated that the intent of this move to fill a seat left
vacant since early 2003 is for Montero to assume the
leadership in the absence of Congress President Landazuri to
call an extraordinary session of Congress during the upcoming
recess. According to PRE sources, the motion on Montero was
to be followed by a proposal to restructure the Supreme
Court, the Constitutional Tribunal, and the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal to reduce the influence of the Social Christian
Party in these institutions.


6. (C) The regular Congressional session will end on
December 3, and be followed by the Quito founding
celebrations and the holiday recess. President Gutierrez is
expected to make Cabinet changes in December which could also
affect the political climate. (See Ref A on the impeachment
process against controversial Social Welfare minister Antonio
Vargas.) Next up would be the battle over Congress'
leadership positions for 2005-6 (including the presidency,
two vice presidencies, and committee chairs),to be decided
by vote on January 5, the first day of the new session.
After Congressional leadership is decided, the Congress will
select a new Attorney General, currently under PSC control,
and may move to fill the still-vacant Comptroller position.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) With the PSC damaged by the impeachment vote (down to
22 seats from 25),the government is clearly seeking to take
the offensive. Though GoE leaders have backed away from
earlier hints that the Congress might be dissolved, Gutierrez
announced a hard-line "mano dura" approach to public debtors,
including Febres-Cordero's relatives, and his Congressional
supporters now seem intent on building a working anti-PSC
coalition. Our view is that prospects for a lasting
pro-government coalition are remote. Our sources put pro and
anti-government forces even at 44 apiece, with the balance in
the hands of the moderate Popular Democracy Party (4 votes),
and the Marxist MPD and Socialists, with three votes each.
While PRE leaders tell us the government has constructed a
coalition which includes judicial reform and the January 5
leadership vote, that may be wishful thinking. Many agree
that PSC influence in the courts must be reduced, while each
party individually aspires to Congressional and committee
leadership positions.


8. (C) The costs of ongoing political conflict are readily
apparent here, and affect important U.S. interests. Despite
a pressing unmet agenda of national needs, Congress is
unlikely to act on substance before January 5 (with the
possible exception of the budget, which will take effect
automatically if Congress does not act before December 30).
Of greater concern, each subsequent effort to unseat the
president builds on the previous and generates a highly
conflictive aftermath, paralyzing the GoE policy process.
KENNEY