OPPOSITION FALLS SHORT ON FIRST IMPEACHMENT VOTE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002955

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FALLS SHORT ON FIRST IMPEACHMENT VOTE;
NEXT STEPS


Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: The pro-impeachment opposition on November
9 tried and twice failed to create a special Congressional
committee to consider impeachment grounds against President
Lucio Gutierrez, effectively stymieing impeachment efforts at
an early stage. The opposition came up short of taking this
second formal step in the impeachment process, after
defections by two Social Christian Party (PSC) members and
one Democratic Left (ID) impeachment petition signers. The
failed vote spells a reprieve or at least temporary respite
for Gutierrez, since to impeach requires a two thirds vote,
currently well out of reach of the opposition. Government
officials tried not to gloat in the wake of the vote; some
privately expressed appreciation for the Ambassador's
statements in support of democratic stability. Disgruntled
impeachment supporters are seeking alternative means to
restart the impeachment process, but are unlikely to prosper
until after the next Gutierrez administration blunder. End
Summary.


2. (U) Congress voted twice on November 9 to conform the
special impeachment committee. The first resulted in 50
votes in favor, one short of a simple majority, with 40
abstentions. President of Congress Guillermo Landazuri voted
in favor, but PSC deputy Rocio Jaramillo of Guayas province
abstained. PSC Congressional leader Pascual del Cioppo later
declared that Jaramillo had been "bought" by the President.
In a second vote later in the day, Jaramillo was absent, and
two other impeachment petition signers abstained, resulting
in just 48 votes in favor. The two defectors included
another from the PSC (Luis Almeida, who resigned from the
PSC, denouncing threats and abuse from party leader Leon
Febres-Cordero and saying he could not vote against
Gutierrez, a fellow member of the masonic rite) and one from
the ID (Aurelio Llori, who announced his resignation from the
party).

Embassy Actions
--------------


3. (C) To promote democratic stability and US interests, we
have engaged privately and publicly with key interlocutors,
stressing USG support for electoral democracy and (with the
opposition) the costs of political instability. The
Ambassador most recently did so at an unrelated joint public
event with President Gutierrez in the National Palace on
November 5. PolOffs emphasized the political costs to PSC
and ID Congressional and party leaders. Embassy PAS
conducted extensive public outreach on the U.S. elections,
emphasizing respect for the will of the electorate and
democratic process.


4. (C) Recognizing that President Gutierrez' personal
combativeness has fueled the increasingly personal feud with
Febres-Cordero, the Ambassador spoke with Gutierrez several
times as the impeachment process played out in Congress,
offering moral support and counseling public restraint. She
also reached out to several other cabinet members (Commerce,
Economy, Defense and even Health) to signal continued USG
engagement on issues of mutual interest during this difficult
period.


5. (C) We are grateful for the interest and support from the
Department to implement this pro-stability strategy,
particularly A/S Noriega's interest and DAS Shapiro's public
outreach with key Ecuadorian media.


6. (C) We also see great opportunities coming up to use VIP
visits to reinforce the stability message. These include:

-- Commerce/USTR visit on November 12. Public speeches and
private meetings with US companies offer opportunities for
public diplomacy.

-- SecDef Rumsfeld/Southcom Commander visit November 15-20.
They will meet with President Gutierrez and the MOD, and have
press opportunities.

-- The visit by former President Bush on November 22 to
Guayaquil. We will suggest that he include stability points
in his public address and be wary of efforts by former
President Febres-Cordero to steal the limelight.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The opposition is smarting from their setback in
Congress, which reflects divisions within their ranks. The
PSC has reportedly begun to woo the PRE, which had hoped to
gain the return of its exiled leader by supporting the GoE.
Privately, some opposition members have expressed relief that
the impeachment process, which lacks strong grassroots
support, has been short-circuited. Others, including the
MPD's die-hard radicals and also some within indigenous
Pachakutik, clearly resent the USG in the person of the
Ambassador for what they incorrectly interpret as USG
intervention in support of the person of President Gutierrez,
and a few have called for her withdrawal. We have emphasized
to all that this is a misinterpretation of our position,
which is in support of democratic institutional stability,
not any individual politician. We believe it exceedingly
important to continue to make that distinction, to preserve
the option to distance ourselves in the event that the
President make anti-democratic moves or should hard evidence
of corruption emerge against him.
KENNEY