"POWER-BLINDED" LFC DRIVES IMPEACHMENT PUSH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002869

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR PREL EC
SUBJECT: "POWER-BLINDED" LFC DRIVES IMPEACHMENT PUSH

REF: GUAYAQUIL 1231

Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Leon Febres-Cordero (LFC),the cantankerous
leader of Ecuador's Social Christian Party (PSC),is
determined to destroy President Lucio Gutierrez by any means
possible, according to two thoughtful PSC legislators.
Brothers Luis Fernando Torres and Carlos Torres, the former
the head of Congress's Constitutional Affairs committee,
claim the facts do not support charges of embezzlement, on
which LFC has based the current impeachment effort (reftel).
Yet Febres-Cordero has ordered the PSC legislative contingent
to begin lobbying other blocs in support of the trumped-up
charges. In cahoots with newfound ally Vice President
Alfredo Palacio, LFC is offering lavish gifts to independent
and small party congressman, whose yes votes are needed to
remove the sitting president. Despite dissension in the
ranks and chafing at Febres-Cordero's "counterproductive"
instructions, the brothers claimed PSC legislators were
unlikely to break ranks. In a same day conversation with
Ambassador Kenney, however, Minister of Government Raul Baca
believed PSC "rebels" were ripe for recruitment. END SUMMARY.

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Congressmen Swallow Hard and March Forward
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2. (U) Poloff joined the siblings October 27 for a working
breakfast, covering upcoming U.S. elections, ongoing
U.S.-Ecuador free trade talks, and the Colombia-Ecuador
relationship. Yet Ecuador's current bout of political
instability, more specifically Febres-Cordero's attempt to
impeach Gutierrez, dominated the discussion. Media had
reported correctly that PSC legislators had not introduced an
impeachment motion the previous day, as was widely expected.
It would be introduced October 27, Luis Fernando revealed, a
fact that clearly troubled him.


3. (U) The motion was pure Febres-Cordero - he hadn't
bothered to consult beforehand with fellow party members or
the PSC Congressional leadership. In reality, the bloc
leader, Pascual del Cioppo, was only a figurehead, since LFC
called all shots. There was little rank-and-file Social
Christian support for impeachment, Luis Fernando claimed, but
legislators, especially first-termers and those running for
re-election in 2006, feared angering the irascible Leon (not
ironically, "lion" in English). There would be no PSC
dissenters in Congress.


4. (U) LFC wanted Gutierrez imprisoned or exiled, Luis
Fernando asserted. The reasons were many, ranging from
Gutierrez cousin Renan Borbua's insults toward the PSC leader
to recent GoE efforts to collect seven-figure debts from
LFC's brother. Febres-Cordero thus had chosen embezzlement
as the focus of the impeachment motion. Were a majority of
legislators to "admit" the charges (a grand jury-like
determination of probable cause to investigate),Ecuadorian
law mandated preventative detention for the accused chief
executive. Were this to occur, Gutierrez would have no
political pulse; his removal from office would be gravy, but
not imperative.


5. (U) Little proof existed to substantiate LFC's
accusations, Carlos noted. There were photos of Gutierrez
with candidates from his Patriotic Society party (PSP),
handing out embossed T-shirts and calendars, but little else.
His many trips in the run-up to Ecuador's October 17 local
elections always featured official business, whether
inaugurating public works or promising others. Media were
claiming that fellow large parties ID and Pachakutik too
supported impeachment, guaranteeing the 51 votes to admit.
What they were not emphasizing, Luis Fernando explained, was
that these organizations wanted Gutierrez's head for other
reasons, including his "neo-liberal" economics and gringo
"kowtowing." Pachakutik and ID support for the PSC's motion
thus was not certain.


6. (U) Social Christian legislators had impeachment
marching orders, however, and were following them. Luis
Fernando himself had swallowed his personal beliefs and, in
remarks to Quito daily El Comercio October 26, "sold" LFC's
arguments and exclaimed that "in the course of the
proceedings, we hope other parties will join us in seeking
the president's dismissal." Worse, Febres-Cordero was
targeting potential turncoat independent legislators with big
payoffs. Gutierrez and the PSP already had sent large sums
their way; LFC likely would have to pay double to turn them.
VP Palacio, whom LFC now supported to complete Gutierrez's
term, had joined the PSC leader in the recruitment effort.

7. (U) Despite his advanced age, Febres-Cordero sought a
second presidential term, Luis Fernando argued. The
ex-president (1984-88) was bolstered enormously by recent
press accounts that credited him with the PSC's strong
showing in the October 17 vote. LFC's political maneuverings
to remove Gutierrez had delivered him the spotlight, boding
well for his comeback attempt. Regrettably, no PSC luminary
would challenge Febres-Cordero, Carlos revealed. Guayaquil
Mayor Jaime Nebot, who had the charisma and credentials to do
so, was awaiting a biological solution (LFC's death) before
seeking the presidency again.

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Political Veteran Sees Chinks in PSC Armor
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8. (C) More optimistic, Minister of Government Raul Baca
believes Gutierrez will weather this crisis as he has the
dozen before it. In an October 27 meeting with the
Ambassador, Baca expressed doubts that LFC could enforce
party discipline during impeachment proceedings. An obvious
PSC schism existed, the minister explained. Over the long
Ecuadorian weekend (October 30-November 3),he intended to
wear out his Rolodex, seeking Social Christian and other
party support for the president's defense. Baca's talking
points were two: Gutierrez had not embezzled public funds,
and further political instability spelled disaster for
Ecuador.

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COMMENT:
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9. (C) Though twenty-five years a democracy, Ecuador suffers
from political parties rooted firmly in the strongman era.
The PSC is the perfect example; despite a plethora of able,
modern politicians, Febres-Cordero remains the iron fist,
those daring to challenge him rapidly returning to the
private sector. Legendary for his "palanca" (connections),
LFC also enjoys deep pockets, and buying allegiances from
Ecuador's Congressional Hessians is no Herculean labor. Nor
do we question his ability to deliver the PSC legislative
bloc's impeachment votes en masse, despite Baca's contrary
opinion. Yet we join Luis Fernando Torres in doubting blind
Pachakutik/ID support for the PSC motion. These are
left-leaning organizations; right-winger Febres-Cordero, who
regularly reminisces about his "close" friendship with former
President Reagan, is even less welcome in their confines than
political chameleon Gutierrez. And pragmatically, allowing
the PSC to shape removal proceedings would give
Febres-Cordero the upper hand in organizing the successor
government, anathema to Ecuador's political left. END COMMENT
KENNEY