RETURN TO NORMALCY: PRESIDENT SURVIVES ANOTHER DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002810

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: RETURN TO NORMALCY: PRESIDENT SURVIVES ANOTHER DAY


Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, for reasons 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Minutes after local elections concluded on October
17, Ecuador's opposition returned to its game of political
"chicken," calling for the impeachment of President Gutierrez
for illegal use of public funds for campaign purposes. The
judiciary, for its part, issued what some charaterize as a
"moral sanction" of the President. Despite the impression
promoted by the opposition press of buzzards circling the
Gutierrez government, GoE insiders tell us that the President
is maneuvering behind the scenes stave off these challenges
in the short run by shoring up its alliances and mollifying
the main opposition. End Summary.

Congress Back At It: Impeachment Talk from ID and PSC
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2. (C) During an election night press conference, PSC
leader Leon Febres-Cordero accused President Gutierrez of
corruption and incapacity and pledged to renew efforts toward
his ouster. The next morning, Democratic Left Party (ID)
leader Rodrigo Borja reinitiated debate over President
Gutierrez' fate by calling for impeachment for improper use
of public funds for campaign purposes. Pachakutik leaders
immediately endorsed the measure, and media focused on the
emerging vote count in Congress. As of October 20, no vote
had been called, but the opposition claimed to have mustered
62 of the 67 votes necessary.

Judiciary Up In Arms Too
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3. (C) The Supreme Court, meanwhile, smarting from criticism
from Gutierrez on the campaign trail that the judicial system
was partial to political interests (read PSC),emitted a
statement on October 20 "energetically rejecting" Gutierrez'
public warning that the people might burn down the courts in
a repeat of the events of January 21, referring to the
popular ouster of former president Jamil Mahuad in 2000. The
court stopped short of accusing Gutierrez of a crime; PSC
leaders claimed it represented a "moral sanction."

An Insiders View
--------------


4. (C) Presidential Secretary Carlos Polit told the
Ambassador on October 20 that he personally oversaw campaign
spending for the Government and has the documentation to
counter any claims of improper use of public funds. He also
said that Government Minister Raul Baca has recently engaged
in secret (separate) talks with Febres-Cordero, President of
Congress Landazuri (ID),and President of the Supreme Court
Hugo Quintana on these issues. The talks had largely (75%)
resolved these challenges to the Gutierrez government,
despite media hype to the contrary. The discussions with
Febres-Cordero and Landazuri (of the ID) produced an deal
whereby the government promised to get members of Gutierrez
family out of the public spotlight in return for the ID and
PSC backing off their efforts to generate a 2/3 majority in
Congress in favor of impeachment. The family members include
Renan Borbua, the President's cousin, reviled by
Febres-Cordero, who will be sent abroad for several months as
an itinerant ambassador. Napoleon Vila, the President's
brother-in-law, also will not be given a government position
in the wake of his failed candidacy for prefect of Pichincha.
Asked by the Ambassador about the fate of Oscar Ajerve, the
president's campaign advisor blamed for several recent
Gutierrez' missteps, Polit said there was no plan for Ajerve
to go "for the moment."


5. (C) Polit said that he and Baca had won a commitment from
Gutierrez to turn Presidential appointment decisions over to
them, to prevent future blunders. He cited as ludicrous the
petition by disgraced former Social Welfare minister Patricio
Acosta to Gutierrez for a new posting as Minister or
Ambassador with ministerial rank. Polit said he promptly
turned the corrupt Acosta down flat, causing Acosta to
publicly disaffiliate from the PSP which he co-founded with
Gutierrez. Polit said that Ajerve has been a disaster as
campaign advisor to the President for the local elections;
Polit expressed shocked that the President would appear to
television studios to be interviewed on election day. This
gave the impression of presidential desperation over vote
results, he said. To counter that impression, Polit and Baca
urged the President take the higher road in a brief televised
address to the nation the day after the election, in which
the President congratulated winners and losers, and called
for dialogue with the opposition on national interests.


Possible Cabinet Changes Imminent
--------------


6. (C) Asked about possible changes in the Cabinet which
Gutierrez has hinted publicly, Polit said that the Education,
Health and Social Welfare ministers might be changed. Polit
said Baca's position, and that of Finance Minister Mauricio
Yepez was secure. FM Zuquilanda is also secure, although
past protocol gaffes (including the seating of Secretary
Powell at the FM's and not the President's table during an
OASGA lunch) allowed Polit to secure veto power over the
Foreign Ministry on all protocol decisions. The next big
event scheduled is President Fox's November 8-9 visit. The
Ambassador requested Polit's assistance scheduling Secretary
Rumsfeld's appointment on November 15. Polit was unaware of
the Defense Ministerial of the Americas, but pledged to
support the request.
Comment
--------------


7. (C) Senior opposition leaders Febres-Cordero and Rodrigo
Borja immediately wrested the political spotlight from their
respective charges (the victorious Moncayo in Quito and Nebot
in Guayaquil) to re-focus it instead on their challenge to
the president. Gutierrez' more able lieutenants are
maneuvering behind the scenes to help the President survive
another day. The combination of moves to stave off
Congressional action against the President and quiet his
critics may succeed in the short run, since there is no
likely successor acceptable to both Febres-Cordero and Borja.
However, Gutierrez is unlikely to disappoint those eagerly
awaiting new controversy.
KENNEY