CG MEETING WITH PQ LEADER LANDRY

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUEBEC 000193

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/4/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA ECON
SUBJECT: CG MEETING WITH PQ LEADER LANDRY


CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, CG, QUEBEC CITY, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, CG, QUEBEC CITY, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: CG met with Parti Quebecois (PQ) opposition
leader Bernard Landry October 28 at his National Assembly office
and received a crash course on Quebec history and the separatist
movement in what was her first encounter with the former PQ
Premier. Despite intense internal wrangling within PQ ranks and
challenges to Landry's leadership, the PQ leader appeared
unfazed and confidently assured CG that Quebec would be an
independent nation within five to ten years. End summary.


2. (C) Landry, a 35-year PQ veteran who led Quebec as Premier
from 2001-03, established his longstanding relationship with the
Quebec City consulate and his party's commitment to Quebec-U.S.
relations. Landry said Quebec is the most pro-American of the
ten Canadian provinces. The U.S.-Canada free trade agreement,
fiercely resisted by the Mulroney government in Ottawa at the
time, would not have passed had the then-PQ Quebec government
not taken a strong favorable position, he added. Landry sees
the trend for the Americas as being one of further economic
integration along a European Union model. He characterized
Quebec as an economic powerhouse: The tenth-ranked economic
force of the OECD, half of Canada's high technology products
come from Quebec and one out of two books published in Canada
are from Quebec.


3. (C) Taking an almost professorial tone, Landry told CG that
"understanding Quebec is both simple and complex" but one thing
all Quebecers fundamentally agree upon is that Quebec forms a
"nation." The Quebec National Assembly unanimously recognized
this fact in a motion presented before the legislature several
months ago. Landry said that over the last 10 years, 30
countries had established their nationhood, including the
Ukraine and other former Soviet and Balkan states. He believes
the Quebec sovereignty option is far from being a marginal
movement and he sees Quebec as moving inexorably toward
independence.


4. (C) Landry argued that Quebec independence would be a
reality before long because of the mathematics of generational
change. According to him, 60 percent of young Quebecers
support the option of sovereignty today. Young voters who
supported the PQ in the 1970s and 1980s are today's older
voters, and they, too, continue to support sovereignty. Landry
pointed to a CROP-La Presse poll released October 28, which
concluded that the PQ would have won Provincial government
elections had they been called in October. In that poll, 63
percent of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the Charest
government. Support for sovereignty stood at 47 percent.


5. (C) On the dynamics of federal-provincial relations, Bernard
Landry said the sizeable presence of the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) in
Ottawa -- Gilles Duceppe holds 54 of the 75 federal seats in the
province -- ought to give it leverage with Martin's minority
government. But this was not happening. Instead, the BQ has
exasperated the rest of Canada, he said. According to Landry,
PM Martin knows his party cannot win Quebec in the next election
and his best bet is to increase voter support in Ontario and
Alberta.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The PQ is presently in disarray, and Landry himself
conceded as much in his meeting with the CG. He argued,
however, that the PQ is merely digesting the loss of the last
election and will come out of this period of political
soul-searching stronger and ready to take power. Whether Landry
retains leadership of the party after this soul-searching
remains to be seen. The next party congress, where Landry's
mandate is up for renewal, is scheduled for June, 2005. Between
now and then, Landry will be focused on fending off challenges
to unseat him.



FRIEDMAN