CRISIS IN RULING CZECH CSSD: PARTY STUCK BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001857

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EZ
SUBJECT: CRISIS IN RULING CZECH CSSD: PARTY STUCK BETWEEN
ROCK AND HARD PLACE

REF: PRAGUE 1845

Classified By: Political Officer Renata Sykorova Turnidge for reasons 1
.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The initial period of relative calm and
promise of consolidation in the main ruling Social Democratic
Party (CSSD) after Stanislav Gross took over as acting party
chairman this summer effectively ended with its poor showing
in the November regional and Senate elections. The elections
once again brought to the fore the fundamental differences in
orientation among various groups in the CSSD, exposed Gross's
shortcomings as the party's leader, and undercut his
leadership authority. Above all, the election fiasco showed
that even a young and (relatively) vibrant leader like Gross
cannot make up for the lack of a concrete strategy for
transforming the party and winning back voters. The CSSD is
stuck at a crossroads: it has to make a choice between
returning to its socialist-oriented party roots, advocated by
the loose grouping known as the Renaissance platform, or
transforming into a European-style Social Democratic party,
with Tony Blair's Labour Party as a model. However, internal
disputes and a lack of vision among party leaders prevent a
real solution. CSSD disunity promises to undermine the work
of the already weak governing coalition. End Summary.

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Gross Defends Policy, Challengers Remain
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2. (C) The latest crisis in the governing Czech Social
Democratic Party developed after the CSSD's abysmal
performance in the regional and Senate elections in November,
which came on the heels of the debacle in the June European
Parliament elections. PM and acting CSSD Chairman Stanislav
Gross responded weakly, for instance by suggesting that the
Senate ought to be abolished altogether; many in the party
criticized Gross's leadership and his three-party coalition
with the center-right Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the
Freedom Union (US-DEU); there was discussion about the wisdom
and necessity of CSSD collaborating more closely with the
unreformed communist party (KSCM). Gross's lack of control
over the party became clear when left-oriented Labor and
Social Affairs Minister Zdenek Skromach announced that he
would challenge Gross for the top post at the party's
upcoming March Congress. After weeks of relative silence,
Gross surprised many when at the early December CSSD
Executive Committee meeting he took a resolute stand against
a minority government with the tacit support of KSCM or any
outreach to the disgruntled former PM Zeman, and criticized
the party's parliamentary faction for its lack of
cohesiveness. Although he received the mandate from the
Committee to continue in his position and remain in coalition
with the KDU-CSL and US-DEU, Gross failed to quiet growing
internal dissent from the CSSD's left wing and former Zeman
supporters.


3. (C) The fault lines between the different interest and
ideological groups are constantly changing, but Gross and his
supporters face the biggest challenge from the loose leftist
bloc that includes the Renaissance platform advocating
Zeman's return. Skromach has emerged as the only potential
challenger to Gross at the CSSD March Congress, but support
for his leadership currently is limited and he is not seen as
a natural leader by the disgruntled group. Gross's close
ally Petr Ibl recently threatened to resign as CSSD
parliamentary caucus chair unless intra-party communication
improves; his departure would be a severe blow to Gross.
Ibl's threat is only the most visible sign of what party
insiders tell us is a wave of previous Gross supporters
abandoning him. Still, none yet see any sign of a challenger
who can win the support of the disparate party groupings and
unseat Gross at the party congress in March.
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Party Stuck at a Crossroads
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4. (C) In their meetings with Embassy officers, CSSD members
admit the party is in a deep crisis and risks extinction if
it does not consolidate and come up with a cohesive party
program that will win back voters. The party is stuck
between the choice of moving right towards the political
center, or veering left towards cooperation with the KSCM.
Gross, in partnership with the respected Minister of Finance
Bohuslav Sobotka, sees the transformation of CSSD into a
mainstream, liberal European Social Democratic Party along
the lines of the British Labour Party as the only chance to
revitalize CSSD. They estimate that the Czech public
increasingly views reform as necessary to solve the country's
economic and social problems, including the poorly
functioning health care and pension systems, and abuses of
social benefits, among others. Gross and Sobotka advocate
filling the relatively open space on the center of the Czech
political spectrum, but face opposition from CSSD hard-liners
who would prefer cooperation with the Communists and a return
to the party's socialist principles. This group is
represented loosely by Labor Minister Skromach, MPs like Jan
Kavan and Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Vladimir
Lastuvka. However, despite Skromach's announced candidacy
for party chair, the left faction lacks a visible leader.
According to MP Hana Orgonikova, Skromach is the media face,
but not a real leader of the group.


5. (C) CSSD will hold a program conference in late January
to work out ideological differences and decide on the course
the party will take in the run up to the 2006 parliamentary
election. However, numerous party members are skeptical that
any real decisions will be made or implemented at the
conference. They complain of the lack of expertise and
vision in the party, pointing out the complete
non-functioning of the expert commissions that should be
working on policy recommendations and concepts. Some
describe the current stalemate in the CSSD as a "dead
period", with nothing meaningful happening and the party
leadership at a loss of how to implement changes that are
needed. And below the dysfunctional leadership are the large
group of 70 CSSD MPs whose main (or sole) priority is to get
themselves re-elected in 2006.

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Zeman In The Waiting
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6. (C) Complicating the difficult situation is former PM
and honorary CSSD Chairman Milos Zeman, who has not gotten
over what he perceives as his betrayal in the 2003
presidential election by Gross and others. It is unclear
whether his public attacks on Gross and most of the rest of
the party leadership are intended to simply encourage Gross's
opponents, or if Zeman really wants to return to politics.
While the Renaissance group actively seeks his return, some
admit that he has passed his political prime and is in fact
out of touch with CSSD or Czech politics. Of interest is
Zeman's continued relationship with President Klaus, which is
difficult to size up. Zeman and his wife recently dined at
the Klaus's residence for "personal reasons," but some CSSD
members speculate that there is more to the relationship than
meets the eye and that Klaus wants to help Zeman return to
politics. The Embassy is closely watching how this
relationship will further develop.

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Comment: Keep an Eye on Communists
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7. (C) The CSSD is being squeezed from both sides: on the
one hand it is loosing out to the much strengthened
center-right Civic Democratic Party, which decisively won all
this year's elections (reftel),and on the other to the
Communist Party that enjoys reliable support from voters on
the left. The KSCM poses a real threat of becoming the
second strongest party in the country, because its leader
Grebenicek and others sense the incredible opportunity
provided to them by CSSD's troubles. Grebenicek's statements
earlier this month that the Communist party should distance
itself from the crimes committed under Communism -- KSCM's
first public admission that such crimes took place under its
predecessor -- is aimed at making the party appear more
modern and acceptable to the Czech public. CSSD will have to
come up soon with a viable strategy to maintain a
long-standing position on the Czech political scene, or risk
political irrelevance.


8. (C) CSSD's internal problems inevitably impact the
governing coalition. In the past, internal squabbles in the
largest government party raised tensions within the
government and threatened passage of government-initiated
legislation. There are already signs that nothing much can
be expected from the current government in the next 18
months. The CSSD internal situation played a role in the
December 20 agreement of the coalition parties' leadership to
set limited goals for the coming year: more efficient legal
proceedings, consensus on pension reform, and ratification of
the EU constitution. As discussed septel, Gross's weak
position will impact on our efforts to secure Czech support
in Iraq and on other priorities.
CABANISS