ARAFAT IN CONTINUED, POSSIBLY IRREVERSIBLE COMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 008063


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014
TAGS: PREL KPAL IS FR
SUBJECT: ARAFAT IN CONTINUED, POSSIBLY IRREVERSIBLE COMA

REF: A. JERUSALEM 4161 AND PREVIOUS

B. PARIS 7985

C. PARIS 7930

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: As of 1030 local (0430 EST) November 5, MFA
officials described Arafat as in a continued coma, with
uncertainty whether his condition is irreversible or what
permanent damage he might suffer if he regains consciousness.
There is still no diagnosis on the cause of his condition.
In successive discussions with us late November 4, senior MFA
and Elysee officials described Arafat as unconscious or
semi-conscious for undetermined causes since November 3, but
not on the brink of death. President Chirac, just prior to
departing for the European Council in Brussels, briefly
visited Arafat mid-afternoon November 4, and the Palestinian
leader reportedly responded with a "twitch and a smile" to
Chirac's presence. Chirac's Middle East advisor described
Arafat as at "3 or 4" on a medical coma scale between 1 and

15. Results of toxicology tests should be complete by
November 5, though French officials caution that French law
prevents Arafat's doctors from releasing medical information
without Suha Arafat's permission. Suha Arafat has sought to
keep a tight lid on public disclosures, and initially
resisted public clarification November 4 that Arafat was
not/not dead. FM Barnier's Cabinet Director told us November
4 he saw three options before the GoF: 1) the GoF flies
Arafat to Gaza before he dies, 2) Arafat recovers, and 3)
Arafat dies in France, at which the GoF would have a small
ceremony at the hospital before flying the body immediately
back to Gaza. End summary.


NOVEMBER 5 UPDATE
--------------


2. (U) The French daily "Le Figaro" reported November 5 that
Arafat is brain dead, in an irreversible coma and on life
support, citing an unnamed French doctor treating Arafat.
Paris PLO representative Leila Shahid publicly denied the
"brain death" stories early November 5, and, while confirming
for the first time that Arafat was in a coma, described it as
"reversible."


3. (C) MFA DAS-equivalent for Israeli/Palestinian/Levant
Affairs Christian Jouret told poloff at 1030 local November 5
that Arafat remained in very bad condition and a continued
coma. He stressed, though, that it was unclear whether
Arafat's condition was reversible, and what degree of
permanent neurological damage he might suffer if he did
regain consciousness. (Late November 4, Jouret told us
doctors' reports had confirmed that Arafat would suffer
permanent neurological damage if he recovered.) Asked to
confirm press reports of negotiations ongoing between France,
Egypt and Israel over where Arafat should be buried, Jouret
said he was unaware of GoF involvement in such talks but did
not exclude that such discussions might already be underway
between the Israelis and Palestinians. Jouret added that the
GoF would be prepared to act quickly if asked by Arafat's
entourage to transport the leader outside France, but he
underlined that no such request had been made and that GoF
action would be unlikely with both Chirac and FM Barnier out
of the country today. (Chirac is in Brussels and heads to
Abu Dhabi for Shaykh Zayed funeral November 5, while Barnier
fills in for Chirac at EU Council lunch with Iraqi PM Allawi
and meets with Iraqi FM Zebari in Brussels today as well.)


CHIRAC-ARAFAT VISIT NOVEMBER 4
--------------


4. (C) Between 1700 and 1800 local time (1100 and 1200 EST)
November 4, we received a series of updates from senior MFA
and Elysee officials on Arafat's health condition, amid
conflicting press reports, including a false rumor that
Arafat had died which was later publicly refuted by the
French military hospital staff. In the first update, at 1705
local, MFA Cabinet Advisor Pierre Vimont confirmed to DCM
that Arafat has been unconscious for past 24 hours, and
doctors could not explain the cause for the sudden
deterioration. Before departing Paris for Brussels for the
European Council, Chirac had visited Arafat briefly at around
1515 local, and spoke mainly to Suha Arafat. Vimont reported
that when Chirac put his hand on Arafat's arm, Arafat
responded with a "twitch and a smile," which Vimont said was
likely a reflex. MFA DAS-equivalent for
Israel/Palestinian/Levant issues Christian Jouret later told
poloff that Chirac had entered the room and greeted Arafat by
saying, "Hello, Dr. Chirac is in." He too reported that
doctors were unsure whether Arafat's response was a reflex or
not, and described Arafat in "some kind of coma."


5. (C) Elysee Middle East Advisor Andre Parant, who
accompanied Chirac on the Arafat hospital visit offered a
slightly more positive description of the PA chairman than
his MFA counterparts. Parant described Arafat as
"semi-conscious," open eyed during the Chirac visit, and in
very bad condition, but "not dead yet." Parant added that on
a medical scale of 1 to 15, with 15 being a full coma,
doctors had described Arafat as a "3 or 4." The main cause
of concern for doctors was that they did not know the cause
of Arafat's deterioration. Certain tests to facilitate a
diagnosis were still not possible, for example, due to a
blood coagulation problem. Parant also confirmed press
reports that Arafat was on a ventilator, but described this
as routine for patients in his condition.


TOXICOLOGY TESTS, POISONING RUMORS
--------------


6. (C) Parant confirmed that toxicology tests had been
completed and results should be available by late November 4
or 5. Acknowledging the potential dangers of continued
rumors of an Arafat poisoning, Parant cautioned that negative
test results might not dampen irrational belief among some
Palestinians that Arafat had been poisoned. Poloff stressed
the need for the GoF to help quash such rumors once test
results were complete, given the potential for violence to
ensue over accusations of Israeli complicity in Arafat's
illness. Parant expressed sympathy, but made no promises.
He stressed that, under French law, Arafat's French (and MOD
employee) doctors could not release any public information
about his condition without the consent of his family, namely
Suha Arafat. The problem, according to Parant, was Suha did
not want to release any information about Arafat's condition,
and was reluctant even to approve the French doctors'
November 4 announcement that Arafat was not/not dead, though
she finally relented and allowed the announcement to go
forward. According to Parant, Suha had threatened to sue the
French doctors treating Arafat if they released to the public
any medical information on Arafat without her consent.
Parant concluded that, if Suha agreed to release the
toxicology reports, there would be no problem. If, however,
she found the results inconclusive or sought to prevent a
public announcement of the results, that was her prerogative.

NEXT STEPS?
--------------


7. (C) Of our GoF interlocutors, only Barnier Cabinet
Director Vimont was forthcoming on discussing potential next
steps in detail, during his November 4 conversation with DCM.
Vimont said he saw three potential scenarios: 1) the GoF
flies Arafat to Gaza soon so he dies in Gaza, 2) Arafat
recovers, and 3) Arafat dies in France, at which the GoF
would need to have a "little ceremony" at the hospital, and
then fly him right away to Gaza. One complication, remained
that if Arafat died in France, GoF law requires autopsy in
cases where death is due to unknown causes. Vimont suggested
that GoF was assuming that Arafat's family wanted burial to
take place in Gaza and that burial would need to take place
quickly; it was not clear if the GoF had consulted with Suha
on this. Vimont did not see a Jerusalem burial as an option.


8. (C) Vimont added that he saw three groups of Palestinians
gathered in Paris: 1) a small group at hospital, 2) those
trying to get in to hospital, and 3) a group staying at
Intercontinental hotel, who are leaking the dire health
information to the press.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Comment: With the tight public information lock-down
on Arafat's health being maintained by Suha Arafat, and the
GoF keeping its own information limited to the highest levels
(Jouret, for example, told us the MFA learned of Chirac's
visit to Arafat via French TV),we expect the current flow of
conflicting reports and misinformation (especially from the
Arafat entourage) to continue unabated. Given the reluctance
of Suha Arafat and Leila Shahid to confirm known details of
Arafat's deterioration, it is entirely likely that public
announcement of Arafat's death, when and if that occurs, may
be delayed by the Palestinian hospital entourage. At the
same time, with the French president and FM out of the
country November 5, we do not think French officials see
Arafat as literally on the brink of death, although it
appears his condition is indeed very, very bad. End comment.

Leach