NEW PANAMA POLLS SHOW TORRIJOS WITH LARGE LEAD.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000564

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE


DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM


E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI PM POL SPECIALIST
SUBJECT: NEW PANAMA POLLS SHOW TORRIJOS WITH LARGE LEAD.
ELECTION COUNTDOWN #5: 8 WEEKS TO GO

REF: A. Panama 0465

B. Panama O417


Summary/Comment: Moving Along
--------------

1. (SBU) New polls from two different not necessarily
reliable sources are ranking presidential candidates in the
usual order. In the Assembly, legislators seeking to
rejuvenate their rotten image have proposed forward-leaning
reductions in their own privileges, but may lack the
political will to push them through. Charges by some of
racist profiling in campaign propaganda, complaints by
candidates that their billboards have been vandalized, and
allegations that the Presidency has used public funds to
support favorite candidates, have left Panama's Electoral
Prosecutor with his hands full. This campaign continues to
be characterized by mudslinging and ad hominem attacks
rather than by considered debate of key issues. In part
this reflects a real lack of ideological differences among
the four Presidential candidates. End Summary/Comment.


Poll margins vary, not rankings
--------------

2. (U) The rankings of the four presidential candidates in
public opinion polls has not changed since mid-2003. PRD
Candidate Torrijos continues to lead, followed by
Solidarity Candidate Endara, with Arnulfista Aleman and
Cambio Democratico Martinelli trailing well behind the
other two. This week, tabloids El Siglo and La Critica,
the latter Panama's best-selling daily, released the
following poll results:


CANDIATE Siglo Critica
(Party)
MARTIN TORRIJOS 39% 48%
(Revolutionary Democratic)
GUILLERMO ENDARA 23% 30%
(Solidarity)
JOSE MIGUEL ALEMAN 16% 6%
(Arnulfista)
RICARDO MARTINELLI 11% 6%
(Democratic Change)



3. (SBU) Educated Panamanians consider Panama's tabloids to
be untrustworthy, and likewise consider their polls to be
biased. Such perceptions spring from several telling
facts. PSM/Sigma 2, which collects and analyzes poll data
for La Critica, also does private polling for the PRD.
Jaime A. Porcell, whose company collected data for El
Siglo, is a longtime PRD sympathizer. Finally, El Siglo
President Ebrahim Asvat is a fixture in Martin Torrijos'
campaign team. (COMMENT: Both polls show Torrijos winning
handily, although the Siglo poll gauges Aleman's support at
roughly double the level of any other poll we have seen.
Emboffs are not persuaded by poll figures, aware that 1999
public opinion polls identified Martin Torrijos as leading
Mireya Moscoso until shortly before Election Day. Embassy
will report further analysis of the methodology for and
credibility of Panama's public opinion polls septel. END
COMMENT)


Solons propose pruning perks
--------------

4. (SBU) Civil society pressure (intensified by front-page
La Prensa investigative reporting) and pre-election
calculations yielded bipartisan calls during a closed-door
legislative session on March 2 to reduce legislative
privileges. A draft bill to reform legislative internal
by-laws would allow legislators to import only one vehicle
duty-free (instead of three) during their five-year term,
capping exoneration at US$5,000, and require a three-year
wait before the car could be resold. Also, legislators'
two alternates ("suplentes") would no longer be entitled to
diplomatic passports unless on official mission. (COMMENT:
Legislators may now import up to three cars duty-free with
no maximum dollar limit and transfer them at any time to
anyone. The proposed reforms would help mollify criticism
of Panama's legislators; however, Emboffs are skeptical
that the reforms will pass, as are many Panamanians. END
COMMENT.)


Leave my ads alone
--------------

5. (U) Candidates from all political parties have bombarded
the Electoral Prosecutor's Office with complaints about
vandalized campaign advertisements. The previous volume of
such complaints -mainly from candidates supporting
Solidarity candidate Guillermo Endara- pales in comparison
with this week. Arnulfista and MOLIRENA candidates
complained to the media and electoral authorities that
unidentified persons are destroying their billboards. Some
billboards have disappeared. Vandals defaced others using
black ink to cover the candidates' faces. One billboard
was even shot several times with a handgun. Electoral
Prosecutor Gerardo Solis announced that his office will
investigate anyone accused of such crime and punish the
guilty.


No rest for Electoral Prosecutor
--------------

6. (SBU) Electoral Prosecutor Gerardo Solis is getting
almost as much press coverage as the four Presidential
candidates. Since the campaign began, Solis has:


---called hearings to review complaints about cooked
registration books in the Authentic Liberal Party (PLA),
eventually eliminating PLA from the 2004 race,
---mediated a dispute between the Endara campaign and the
Arnulfistas over the use of the image of deceased President
and party namesake Arnulfo Arias,
---investigated vandalism of political advertisements,
---searched the Ministry of Labor to assess whether a
legislative candidate was demoted for running with a non-
GOP coalition party, and
---announced that he will investigate whether official
funds from the Ministry of the Presidency have been used
illegally to fund campaigns for Arnulfista candidate Jose
Miguel Aleman and/or turncoat legislator Carlos Afu.


The President's Legal Slush Fund
--------------

7. (SBU) While Aleman denied GOP funds have entered his
campaign, claiming that he has enough other money, Afu made
no public comments. Minister of the Presidency Mirna Pitti
claimed she had nothing to hide. Legally, Pitti has 30
calendar days to disclose use of the funds from President
Moscoso's "secret allotment." (NOTE: This allotment, known
in Spanish as the "partida discrecional" or "partida
discreta" existed during the Endara Administration (1989-
94) at a level of US$2 million per year. President Ernesto
Perez Balladares (1994-99) raised the stakes to US$6
million, where they have since remained. Unlike other
government spending, use of these funds is neither pre-
authorized nor audited post-expenditure. Thus many civil
society leaders have called for public release of expense
records. End note)


Racial profiling in PRD Ad
--------------

8. (SBU) A TV advertisement for PRD-PP candidate Martin
Torrijos offended several members of the Afro-Panamanian
community. The ad, relating concerns about citizen
security, portrayed a black man shadowing two elderly
Latino women. Afro-Panamanian activist Alberto Barrow
asserted that the ad gave the impression blacks are crime
perpetrators and Latinos victims. Barrow had a heated
discussion March 3 on a live TV talk show with another
black PRD leader Luis Gomez, who defended the ad. The PRD
convened a meeting between Barrow and ad producer Cesar
Sanjur and then decided to modify the ad. The new ad has
already aired, minus the suspicious-looking black man.


WATT