CANADA'S OPPOSITION TO A THIRD TERM FOR IAEA DG

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 003454

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2014
TAGS: AORC PARM CA IAEA
SUBJECT: CANADA'S OPPOSITION TO A THIRD TERM FOR IAEA DG
ELBARADEI

REF: A. A. STATE 270920 AND PREVIOUS

B. B. OTTAWA 03347

Classified By: POL M/C BRIAN FLORA. REASON 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (C) POL M/C followed up on our December 13 conversation
(Ref B) with Foreign Affairs Deputy Director for
Non-Proliferation, Terry Wood on December 23. Canada remains
strongly in favor of a two-term limit. However, it did not
have a candidate of its own and others rumored to be
interested in running for the IAEA Director General position
had not been nominated. Unless ElBaradei bows out, it was
unlikely that anyone would be nominated prior to the December
31 deadline. Furthermore, Canada's sense was that support
for him was growing, especially within the G-77, but also
including France, Germany, Russia, and Belgium. He is close
to having the support he needs to be re-elected and the G-77,
confident that the votes can be rounded up, is apparently
pressing for an early vote. Canada does not yet see where the
twelve votes needed to oppose his bid for a third term would
come from.


2. (C) The key factor, according to Wood, is how forcefully
the U.S. willing to fight in an attempt to turn things
around. Thus far, the U.S. has made its views known publicly
and privately, but without going after ElBaradei, who is
viewed as competent and relatively effective by much of the
IAEA membership. Any serious effort to force him out would
leave blood on the floor and might not be successful.
Lastly, one consideration was that a divisive and protracted
fight would likely have negative consequences for the
Agency's ability to carry out its responsibilities.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

DICKSON