CANADIAN GOVERNMENT HAND-WRINGING ON MISSILE

S E C R E T OTTAWA 003382

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2014
TAGS: MARR PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN GOVERNMENT HAND-WRINGING ON MISSILE
DEFENSE

REF: OTTAWA 03336

Classified By: JOHN DICKSON, DCM, FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) In a series of end-of-year interviews, the press
has cast a negative spin on Prime Minister Martin's comments
on Canadian participation in the Missile Defense Program
(MDP). Nonetheless, the government is leaning toward
submitting the issue for a debate and vote in Parliament when
it comes back in session in March. Defense Minister Graham
has come out publicly in favor of MDP, and Privy Council
Clerk Alex Himelfarb, the Secretary of the Cabinet, told the
Ambassador that the government, after agonizing for months on
the issue, felt it had to "lance the missile defense boil."


2. (S/NF) Prime Minister Martin, for his part, is in favor
of Canadian participation, but for political reasons has had
to protect his flank by setting parameters, as reflected, for
example, in his two widely publicized television interviews
this week reviewing his first year in office. These
parameters include his rejection of the so-called
weaponization of space, no missiles based in Canada, and
opposition to a major financial contribution by Canada, while
guarding a "say" in missile defense implementation and
operations. In the wake of sensational press headlines
indicating Martin's opposition to the MDP, Senior Foreign
Policy Advisor Fried, at the Prime Minister's behest, called
the Ambassador to reassure him that press coverage of the
Prime Minister's missile defense statements had taken
comments out of context. He confirmed that the cabinet was
moving the issue ahead. What was needed from the U.S. was an
indication of what useful role Canada might play, beyond the
recent amendment to the NORAD Agreement which assigned to it
the warning and threat assessment mission. Ambassador
Kergin, who had recently been briefed by Raytheon on possible
placement on Canadian soil of an X-Band Radar array (Reftel),
would be seeking a more detailed clarification in Washington
of what further Canadian participation might entail.
(Comment: Given the Prime Minister's parameters, something
like a radar system would be something the government could
sell to skeptical public as a worthwhile contribution to the
program. End Comment.)


3. (SBU) Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper told POL
M/C that his party was ready to support participation in the
MDP, but was waiting for the Prime Minister to come forward
with a concept for Canada's role in the program. In a
foreign policy address on December 14, he criticized the
government for its lack of political courage and leadership
on missile defense and stated that he quote did not want to
see Canada isolated from any move the United States might
take to protect the continent unquote.


4. (S/NF) A senior Liberal MP (protect) confirmed to POL/MC
on December 21 that the Liberal Caucus was screwing up its
courage for a February or March debate on Missile Defense.
He criticized Martin's dithering and noted that the issue,
while it wouldn't win any votes for the Liberals in the next
election, was quote no big deal unquote. Once the fireworks
were over in parliament and Canada's proposed role and
caveats made clear, it would blow over. The MP said it was a
big mistake to have delayed so long; Martin, who during his
leadership campaign had been on the record as in favor of the
program, should have addressed it a year ago, shortly after
becoming Prime Minister.


5. (S/NF) Comment: President Bush's public and private
comments during his visit to Canada, in which he said he
would welcome Canadian participation in the program, have
moved the debate to the political front burner. The polls
show that the electorate is evenly split on the issue. The
Prime Minister and the key members of his cabinet are in
favor, if mainly to help solidify what they see as Canada's
paramount relationship with the U.S., but the political
tacticians keep pointing out that it will cost the Liberal
Party votes in critical urban ridings in Toronto and Quebec.
With an election expected within the next 18 to 24 months,
they fear that the handful of seats they expect to lose would
jeopardize their hold on government. That said, a limited
form of participation in MDP such as hosting a radar array,
might be billed as an extension of NORAD's warning function
and would probably be politically marketable.

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