PRESIDENT BUSH VISIT BRINGS TOGETHER DISPARATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 003258

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2009
TAGS: CA PGOV PREL ASEC
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT BUSH VISIT BRINGS TOGETHER DISPARATE
ARRAY OF DEMONSTRATORS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b
) (d)


1. (C) Summary: Preparations were in place for large protests
during the visit of President Bush but in the end it was a
small, albeit at times unruly lot that demonstrated. The
stalwarts, such as the Raging Grannies and "No War/No to
Bush" coalition, were paralleled by anarchists and others,
but overall there did not seem to be widespread popular
support for the anti-Bush display. There were no more than
5,000 total in Ottawa, with some 4,000 overall in Halifax.
Demonstrators were of two persuasions, one group reasonably
orderly and passive, and another group that engaged in
sporadic incidents of violence throughout the two-day visit
which left ten policemen hospitalized. The modest numbers
appear to reflect an inability by protest organizers to
develop a compelling theme more than anything, but may also
show the practical side to Canadians, and a desire to move
beyond particular policies and see bilateral relations
improve more broadly. End Summary

Raging Grannies and Belly Dancers vs. Bush
--------------


2. (U) Police and public security officials were braced for
the worst in Ottawa during the President,s visit but in the
end the demonstrations were modest in size, although at times
violent. There appeared to be a good deal of mobilizing in
the week preceding the visit, with &No to Bush8 and &Rally
Against BMD8 posters all over the city and protest websites
reporting large numbers of hits. There was talk of
largescale bussing from other cities. Some organizers were
hoping for numbers in the tens of thousands and while
expressing the desire for a peaceful protest, did not promise
there wouldn,t be conflict. Police brought in hundreds of
officers from Toronto and other districts and riot police
were staged throughout the central downtown district.


3. (U) But lack of information on scheduling and the
motorcade, as well as an apparent weak interest, apparently
helped disrupt the plans of the disrupters. One key rally
was set to start at noon in front of Parliament, just about
when the Bush party was leaving the grounds. There were no
more than 400 demonstrators on the grounds when the President
met with PM Martin in Centre Block. The crowd grew
throughout the day and by evening there were several thousand
protestors milling about downtown. By then there were
apparently two groups -- one largely passive and contained,
and another looking for a fight. One protest leader
apparently defused a possible conflict when he successfully
used a bullhorn to ask protestors to move back from the
barricades while other groups threw objects at the police and
engaged in shoving matches with public security officers.
There were several incidents when the riot police had to push
back against the crowd and a handful of arrests, but overall
the protests were peaceful and orderly. The rowdiest crowd
showed up at the Hotel Chateau Laurier as the delegation left
Ottawa December 1, doing mild damage to the outside of the
building and putting ten policemen in the hospital (this
unfortunately was the kind of incident CNN focused on).


4. (U) In Halifax there was a similar crowd of about 4,000
that staged outside the immigration museum where the
President delivered his speech. They had common themes of
&No War8 and &Bush Go Home,8 but were, like their Ottawa
counterparts, fairly subdued.

Five Finger Waves
--------------


5. (U) In both Ottawa and Halifax there were also scattered
Bush supporters who did their best to ensure the President
saw their positive message. One group was given a tip by the
local police and staged outside the airport on the motorcade
route. They were given a thumbs up sign by the President,
who later thanked them for their &five finger salute8 in
his speech.


6. (C) What appeared to hurt the demonstrators most was a
general lack of any theme. Some commentators have suggested
that there will, for any event, be a hard-core of
&professional protestors.8 The Raging Grannies are fairly
reliable, one of whom said she was protesting because of
President Bush's stand on homosexuality, Iraq, and missile
defense (this sort of potpourri of issues led one commentator
to complain that protestors were &inventing protest.") The
Belly Dancers Against Bush were nowhere to be seen and did
not make a statement after the visit (they do tend to be more
active in the summer for obvious reasons). One of the key
groups was &No War8 and &No to Bush,8 a coalition that
grew out of the run-up to the Iraq war and focuses on Iraq
and missile defense. But there was little intelligent
discourse on Iraq either during or after the visit, and other
than demanding a pull-out from Iraq, the demonstrators had
little to say. There were also anarchists and other violent
protestors sprinkled in, including some anti-Semitic skinhead
type groups who were responsible for the violence that
accompanied the protests. All of this contrasts distinctly
with the 20,000 demonstrators who came out to oppose the
invasion of Iraq in 2003 when they may have believed their
voice, and their numbers, would count.


7. (C) Missile defense was the one theme that got people out
with a coherent and manageable message. There was a small
demonstration on the Saturday preceding the visit against
Canadian participation in the BMD program, which had fewer
than a hundred demonstrators on Parliament Hill in a very
well-organized display. Anti-BMD demonstrators and themes
were also sprinkled in the crowds during the visit.

Jack Layton Multi-Tasks
--------------


8. (C) NDP,s Jack Layton was the only party leader to get
involved in the protests. Layton used party funds to hire an
auto-dialing telemessage service to call 2000 Ottawa-area NDP
supporters to encourage them to attend a candlelight vigil on
Parliament Hill. He also gave them the times and locations
for several protests throughout the day. Ironically, Layton
went from the Parliament Hill protest directly to the
President,s reception at the Museum of Civilization. (Or
perhaps not so ironically, since Layton apparently used his
time with US officials to continue his protest against BMD).


9. (C) Comment: The President,s visit was a good time to
take stock of popular opposition to U.S. policies. In the
end an optimist could be somewhat encouraged. One columnist
went so far as to suggest that the protests were so small as
to be embarrassing and &President Bush deserved a better
show.8 While there is still widespread antipathy for
certain U.S. policies here and for the current administration
in particular, there is also a rising sense that the
bilateral relationship is simply too important to allow such
antipathy to overcome traditional Canadian practicality and
it is time to move forward.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

DICKSON