CANADIAN PARLIAMENT'S INITIAL REACTION TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 003240

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2009
TAGS: CA PARM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CANADIAN PARLIAMENT'S INITIAL REACTION TO
PRESIDENT'S VISIT FOCUSES ON BSE AND MISSILE DEFENSE


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission John Dickson, reasons 1.4 (b) (d
)


1. (C) Summary: Initial public and political reaction to the
visit of President Bush has been largely positive; we have
received the "bounce" to the bilateral relationship that we
were hoping for. Attention has quickly come to focus on the
issues of immediate concern to Canadians however, which are
missile defense and BSE. PM Martin was handed what one
commentator called a &ticking time bomb8 when missile
defense was made a priority in the bilateral relationship
during the visit and he now must develop a strategy to
deliver the goods while minimizing any political fallout. In
the December 1 Parliamentary question period the NDP and Bloc
wasted no time in pressing the government to make a decision
on missile defense and signaled that the Parliament will not
be an idle bystander during the debate. The Conservatives,
for their part, attacked the lack of movement during the
visit on the BSE issue, and Martin's lack of strategic focus
on the bilateral relationship in general. BMD remains
Martin's open flank, and without inferring any form of
linkage between the two issues, rapid movement on BSE could
go far to strengthen Martin,s hand on this and other issues
in which Canada's help is desirable by showing his ability to
deliver for Canada. It would also reinforce the visit as the
new beginning in the bilateral relationship that we have been
hoping for. End Summary


2. (C) Coverage of the President's visit has dominated the
press here for three days. It has been generally positive,
acknowledging the effort the White House put into making the
visit a success and the President and Mrs. Bush's
multi-faceted meetings and appearances. The Halifax speech
was carefully scrutinized both for its Canada content and its
broader international themes, again largely positive. But by
the afternoon of December 1 the Parliament and PMO were
quickly pulling to the top of their in-boxes the issues that
mattered most to Canadians -- namely BSE and Missile Defense,
and more broadly the management of the bilateral relationship
in general. A view of the domestic political framework of
the debate could be seen in PM Martin,s press conference in
Halifax December 1 and the Parliamentary question period
later in the day.


3. (C) The Conservatives did not even allow their leader and
the PM to return from Halifax before they criticized the
Liberals for not delivering on the BSE issue during the
visit. During question period December 1, Peter McKay
accused the PM of being more concerned with photo ops than
substance and asked the Agriculture Minister to give a
specific date when the border would be open to cattle
exports. Belinda Stronach complained that the issue is
locked in a bureaucratic process that could take an
additional six months and cost another $2 billion. When the
Agriculture Minister suggested the Conservatives not use the
issue to score cheap political points, Stronach retorted that
Canada was not making any movement on the issues that matter
to Canada because U.S.-Canadian relations are simply not a
strategic priority for this government. NDP MP Charlie Angus
(no kidding) returned to the issue later, saying that most
Canadian cows will die of old age before they get mad cow
disease and urged the government to work faster to get the
issue resolved.


4. (C) Bloc Quebecois, Michel Gauthier then asked whether
the discussions on missile defense during the visit would be
the beginning of cooperation on the weaponization of space.
He said it was embarrassing that President Bush was providing
more information on BMD to the Canadian people than the
government had, and suggested that since President Bush has
now openly stated that negotiations are well advanced (sic),
the government should admit that there is an agreement in
process. (Note: Like the Conservatives, the BQ incorrectly
believes that officials negotiations have taken place).


5. (C) NDP Leader Layton then struggled through a BMD
question after being shouted down three times by the entire
house when he broke the cardinal rule of not naming names in
the Parliament. He said that Secretary Powell had told him
that there would be weapons in space but they would not be
aimed at earth. He asked whether the government is now
prepared to simply say no to putting a Canadian flag on
President Bush,s missile defense program (this comment truly
did have a Stranglovian feel to it -- with images of missiles
hurling through space flying the Canadian flag).


6. (C) PM Martin, mindful of the split in his own caucus on
the BMD issue and the Liberal's united opposition to the Iraq
war, needed to show a warming of relations with the United
States while maintaining a healthy independence on these
contentious issues. In a press conference following the
Halifax speech, Martin placed the missile defense debate in
the larger context of continental security, stating clearly
that &we will make our decisions on the wider interests of
Canadian sovereignty.8 He reiterated in December 2 question
period that questions of timing and involvement would be made
by Canada for Canada. He also needed to deflect the
implication that he is no MacKenzie King, whom it was implied
would have been more forward looking in dealing with the
evolving threats in the world. &Terrorism is a global
threat that,s very, very different from the situation we
were facing in the Second World War,8 he told reporters.
Above all, Martin felt he could not be seen as blindly
following an American lead, but rather as working in full
partnership with the U.S. on issues of mutual concern, while
delivering on Canada's key interests.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The President,s Halifax speech will certainly
accelerate the BMD debate here. It is an issue that is
fraught with minefields for all parties, but especially this
minority government. The NDP and Bloc will oppose any BMD
proposal and will attempt to score as many political points
in the process as they can. It has been suggested that one
of these entities could bring the BMD debate to the floor and
force a non-binding vote before the government is ready. The
Conservatives, who themselves view BMD as a political
liability in Ontario and especially Quebec, will probably at
this point back off from using the issue to beat up the
government -- the President,s meeting with Party Leader
Harper was very well received by Harper personally and by the
party. They can be expected to go along with a moderate and
well-presented proposal on BMD. The Liberals will remain
split on the issue and could either allow members to vote
their conscience, thus exposing cracks in the caucus, or
attempt to impose party discipline, eliciting back-bench
complaints to the press. Either way it will be a contentious
issue for the Liberal Party, which has a number of hard-core
opponents of anything related to missile defense.


8. (C) Martin would be helped in shepherding the program by
several things. First, he needs to be able to credibly, and
technically, show that BMD categorically will not lead to
"weaponization" of space. Second, he needs to persuade
Canadians that Canada's refusal to take part in the missile
defense program would sour relations with the U.S. in the
same way as the Iraq war (this point is already being made by
columnists and pundits). Third, he would be greatly helped
by visible movement on the BSE issue. No Canadian believes
there is linkage between BSE and BMD, but all Canadians are
sore about the former and most are hesitant about the latter.
If the USG could demonstrate good faith in quickly pushing
the BSE review through OMB well ahead of the three month
limit, it would generate good will that would make it easier
for Martin to line up the votes on BMD, and would allow him
some flexibility on other difficult requests in the U.S. file.

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DICKSON