Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04NEWDELHI7750
2004-12-08 11:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

SHYAM SARAN "SPEAKS FROM THE HEART" ON NEPAL

Tags:  PREL PTER MASS EAID PREF ASEC IN NP 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007750 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014
TAGS: PREL PTER MASS EAID PREF ASEC IN NP
SUBJECT: SHYAM SARAN "SPEAKS FROM THE HEART" ON NEPAL

REF: NEW DELHI 6002

Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007750

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014
TAGS: PREL PTER MASS EAID PREF ASEC IN NP
SUBJECT: SHYAM SARAN "SPEAKS FROM THE HEART" ON NEPAL

REF: NEW DELHI 6002

Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Speaking informally at a just-concluded
track-II conference on Nepal, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran
argued that New Delhi and Kathmandu must work more closely
together to defeat the Maoists, that Nepalese mistrust of
India is misplaced, and that economic development could help
Nepal overcome the insurgency, according to MEA
Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar. Mahawar predicted that
King Gyanendra would visit New Delhi, probably during the
latter part of December, and indicated that the GOI would use
that opportunity to encourage the King not to curtail Prime
Minister Deuba's authority. This comes against a growing
expectation in Indian non-governmental circles that PM
Deuba's days are numbered. Mahawar noted that 160 Nepalese
police officers had just completed training in Hyderabad, and
said another 300 officers would enter the pilot program in
mid-December under India's new police training initiative.
New Delhi remains concerned about the nexus between
anti-India insurgent groups and Nepalese Maoists, he
emphasized. End Summary.

Shyam Saran "Speaks From the Heart"
--------------


2. (C) Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran "spoke from the heart"
on the need to defeat the Maoist insurgency when he
inaugurated a December 5-6 track-II conference on Nepal, MEA
Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar told Poloff on December

7. Mahawar described the Foreign Secretary's comments as his
personal views, but said the remarks were "completely
consistent" with the official GOI line. He attributed this
consistency to Saran's significant role in the formulation of
India's policy toward Nepal.


3. (C) According to Mahawar, Saran outlined a four point
approach to dealing with the Maoists:

-- India and Nepal must coordinate more closely in order to
resolve the Maoist problem;

-- The Maoists must understand that they cannot win
militarily and that the longer they avoid negotiations, the

weaker their bargaining power will become. This requires
sustained military pressure on the Maoists, and concrete
military successes by the Royal Nepal Army (RNA);

-- The Palace and the political parties must put aside their
differences, and present a united front to the Maoists;

-- Development is one means of overcoming the Maoist threat.
Kathmandu should "hitch itself" to India's economy in order
to promote economic growth.

According to Indian media reports, Saran also argued that
Nepalese mistrust of India is misplaced and that Nepal should
view India as an ally in the fight against the Maoists. A
December 6 "Hindustan Times" article reported that Saran
urged the inclusion of "progressive" Maoists into the
mainstream.


4. (C) Conference participants included journalists and
academics from India, as well as representatives from major
Nepalese political parties, including the UML and Nepali
Congress Party. "Foreign participants" were not allowed to
attend.

King Still Expected in New Delhi
--------------


5. (C) Although the dates have yet to be finalized, the MEA
still expects a visit of King Gyanendra to New Delhi,
probably sometime in the latter half of December. Mahawar
speculated that the GOI would emphasize the need for unity
between the Palace and the political parties, further
encourage the King not to undermine the Prime Minister, and
highlight the need for Nepalese security forces to be more
effective against the Maoists. It would be "regressive" if
the King weakened PM Deuba's authority, he observed, arguing
that a change in PM would only exacerbate the situation.


6. (C) The King's expected visit comes against a growing
feeling in New Delhi-based non-governmental circles that PM
Deuba's days are numbered. According to Jawaharlal Nehru
University Professor SD Muni, Deuba's removal is
"inevitable." He predicted that Deuba would not be removed
from office until after the January 13th deadline for the
Maoists to come to the negotiating table, and speculated that
Deuba set the deadline to buy himself time. The MEA's
Mahawar also noted a high degree of skepticism surrounding
the King's intentions toward Deuba by participants in the
track-II conference.

Police Training In Progress
--------------


7. (C) Offering an update on Nepal's police training project
in Hyderabad (reftel),Mahawar reported that the first batch
of 160 officers had graduated from the program on December 2,
after ten weeks of training. The second batch of 300
officers is scheduled to begin training the third week of
December, he said. Once the second batch graduates, the GOI
will evaluate the program before deciding whether to continue
the project, now in its pilot phase.

Working Together to Strengthen the Border
--------------


8. (C) Echoing more senior Indian officials, Mahawar
expressed concern about the recent creation of the Communist
Party of India (Maoist) -- formed from the merger anti-India
People's War Group and Maoist Communist Centre -- alleging
that Nepalese Maoists had facilitated the merger. He
underlined GOI concerns over organizations such as the
Coordinating Committee of Maoists Partners and Organizations
in South Asia (CCOMPOSA),that promote links between
insurgent factions, and claimed that nearly one-fourth of the
country is affected by such groups. Seventy-five districts
are "severely affected," he stated, adding that both India
and Nepal were deploying troops to "sensitive areas" along
the border in an effort to strengthen security there.
MULFORD