KUMARATUNGA VISIT: SRI LANKA RELATIONSHIP A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007497

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PREL MASS PTER CE IN
SUBJECT: KUMARATUNGA VISIT: SRI LANKA RELATIONSHIP A
"MODEL" IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD

REF: COLOMBO 1857

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Sri Lanka's President Chandrika Kumaratunga's
November 3-7 New Delhi visit highlighted that Sri Lanka has
become a model neighbor for India. The President's stay
included an address to a high-level conference during which
she dismissed the notion that "nothing was happening" in her
country's peace process. The MEA announced the long-pending
Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) was ready for signature,
but did not indicate when that would be signed. Officially,
New Delhi has kept its hands off of GOSL-LTTE relations but
the DCA will reverse that stance, Indian Tamils argue. In
attempting to restrict third party use of Sri Lanka's Palaly
airfield that the GOI has agreed to refurbish, India is
pursuing its objective of being the dominant South Asian
power. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Despite keeping her VIP audience waiting nearly 30
minutes, Kumaratunga's November 5 speech to the high-powered
"Hindustan Times" leadership conference was well received by
the Delhi elite. Kumaratunga avoided any mention of the
conflict in her own country, focusing instead on her vision
for SAARC which she said could unify South Asia into an
"economic powerhouse." Following the talk, the President
dismissed the suggestion that "nothing was happening" in the
peace process, and instead highlighted recent developments
that gave her cause for optimism.

Model Relationship
--------------


3. (C) The MEA told us that "nothing new" came up during
Kumaratunga's GOI discussions. In a November 17 conversation
with Poloff, Deputy Secretary (Sri Lanka) Anupam Rai called
India-Sri Lanka "one relationship in the neighborhood that is
really moving," adding that "politically, we are closer than
ever." Rai remarked that "the Sri Lanka relationship could
serve as a model for our other relationships in the
neighborhood." Emphasizing the contrast between Colombo and
India's other neighbors, he noted that "as opposed to
building barriers, like Bangladesh and Pakistan, Sri Lankans
are the only guys who are walking the talk of building strong
ties." In a statement after the Kumaratunga visit, the MEA
also expressed pleasure at "Sri Lanka's endorsement of
India's candidature for permanent membership of the UNSC."

Defense Agreement
--------------


4. (C) Describing the long-awaited India-Sri Lanka Defense
Cooperation Agreement (DCA) as an "international safety net,"
Rai remarked simply that its purpose was to "institutionalize
defense cooperation." Indo-Asian News Service News Editor
(and Prabhakaran biographer) Narayan Swamy explained that the
agreement provided the only surprise of Kumaratunga's visit,
as she was expected to sign it while in New Delhi. Swamy
explained that the LTTE opposes such a formalization between
India and Sri Lanka because it would "redistribute the
equilibrium between the Tigers and the GOSL." Freelance
commentator Maj. Gen. Ashok Mehta (Ret) agreed, noting that
the LTTE have said such an agreement will go against the
peace process. He added that the DCA will be a "deterrent"
to the LTTE from continuing to pursue a military course.


5. (C) As to the status of the DCA, Sri Lankan High
Commission First Secretary Saj Mendis (protect) told Poloff
that the documents are being prepared for signature. General
Mehta gave us a different view, observing that the agreement
still had to be approved by the Indian cabinet, and
predicting that the process may not go smoothly due to
resistance from South Indian Tamil parties in the governing
coalition. Institute for Conflict Management (ICM)
researcher Saji Cherian noted recently that the leader of the
pro-LTTE MDMK party, Vaiko, had met with PM Manmohan Singh to
"express his disapproval." Journalist Swamy asserted that
the LTTE position would not dissuade the GOI from finalizing
the process.

Hands Off, Eyes Open
--------------


6. (C) The GOI maintains that "any request for Indian
participation in the peace process would have to be
considered carefully." According to the MEA's Rai,
Kumaratunga described the process as "neither going forward,
or backward." The GOI has concluded that the President is
"serious" about moving ahead, and that India is willing to
finance rehabilitation projects in Sri Lanka, Rai added.


7. (C) Among India's development projects in Sri Lanka, Swamy
listed the GOI offer to refurbish the Palaly airstrip
(reftel),but noted that New Delhi has conditioned its offer
by requiring that only India and Sri Lanka be allowed to use
it. Although the LTTE is concerned that the DCA will bring
Colombo and New Delhi into a military relationship against
them, Prabhakaran biographer Swamy insisted that the GOI
would not contemplate a repeat of its 1987 military
intervention in Sri Lanka. In a November 23 essay, General
Mehta came to the same conclusion, writing that "India is
still once bitten twice shy." Nonetheless, the ICM's Cherian
noted that since September both the head of India's Navy
Admiral Arun Prakash, and the Chief of Army Staff N.C. Vij
have traveled to Sri Lanka.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Sri Lanka has become a "feel good" relationship for
India and the gushing public embrace Delhi gave Kumaratunga
stands out among visits from the other neighbors. The DCA
demonstrates that India is not entirely content to stand by
quietly on GOSL-LTTE relations. The Palaly airfield
agreement is a GOI attempt to wield even greater influence in
Colombo. Undergirding this rapidly thickening
security/political agenda is a thriving commercial
relationship that both sides see as beneficial. As much as
anything, it is this mutually advantageous economic
arrangement that distinguishes India's relationship with Sri
Lanka from its other South Asian ties.
BLAKE