THE BJP HAS FEW OPTIONS TO RETURN TO POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007088

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: THE BJP HAS FEW OPTIONS TO RETURN TO POWER

REF: A. NEW DELHI 6998


B. NEW DELHI 6606

C. NEW DELHI 5339

D. NEW DELHI 4036

E. NEW DELHI 3333

Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Since losing the May elections, the BJP
leadership has failed to resolve internal disputes between
its moderate and Hindutva wings over the reasons for its
defeat. The Sangh (family of Hindu groups) is urging the
party to return to its Hindutva roots, but the leadership is
unwilling to endorse this course. Party President and former
DPM Advani is leaning towards "moderate Hindutva" as a means
to placate the Sangh and keep secular parties in the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA). Although determined to confront
the UPA both inside and outside of Parliament, the BJP cannot
return to power over the medium term, and poses no serious
threat to the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
government. Both the NDA and UPA are concentrating on three
state elections slated for February 2005, which could
consolidate Congress momentum according to early predictions.
Should the BJP do badly in these contests, the UPA could
remain in power for years to come. End Summary.

Confusion Still Reigns
--------------


2. (U) On October 18, the BJP sacked party President
Venkaiah Naidu, and replaced him with former DPM L.K. Advani
(Ref B). Press reports indicate that the BJP hopes Advani
will provide strong leadership, overcome deep rifts in the
party leadership, and lead it back to power. In an early
indication as to which direction he wants to take the party,
Advani committed the BJP to building a Ram temple in Ayodhya
on October 26, met RSS leaders for two hours on October 31,
and pledged to attend a hard-line RSS leadership conference
on November 5 and 6 in Hardwar.


3. (U) Indications are that the party's internal rifts
remain as deep as ever. On November 1, Vishwa Hindu Parishad
(VHP) leader Ashok Singal criticized Advani as a "stop-gap"
president who lacked mass appeal, and the Sangh Parivar
leadership said it would accept nothing less than a return to
Hindutva ideology. Despite its unhappiness with the BJP's
failure to return to Hindutva, the Sangh Parivar gave no
indication that it would follow through on earlier threats to
form a purely Hindu party. On October 31, a disaffected RSS
activist revived the old Jan Sangh as a new Hindu nationalist
grouping, but no BJP leaders joined him.

Limited Options
--------------


4. (C) On November 4, well-connected television journalist
Harish Gupta told Poloff that the RSS wants Advani to give up
aspirations of a quick return to power, to allow the UPA
government to complete a full five-year term, and to use that
period to rebuild the party from the ground up. According to
Gupta, Advani is reluctant to accept this plan, as it would
prevent him from becoming PM. If the party adopted this
approach, it would have to select an heir apparent from its
second tier leadership. The two most likely candidates are
Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj, both of whom are
hard-liners who enjoy the confidence of the Sangh Parivar


5. (C) Gupta claimed that Joshi was the Sangh Parivar's
first choice to become party president and Advani was happy
to remain leader of the parliamentary opposition, taking the
job only to prevent Joshi's rise to power. Gupta predicted
that Advani would fare badly in the post, as the BJP's
current options are extremely limited, and that he would take
the blame for a situation in which there is little prospect
for a positive outcome.


6. (C) Gupta pointed out that Bihar and Jharkhand go to the
polls in February 2005, and because the BJP has no presence
there, it must rely on its ally the Janata Dal(U),headed by
former Defense Minister George Fernandes to carry the NDA's
water. The strongly secular Fernandes objected to Advani's
pro Hindutva tilt and comments regarding the Ram temple,
setting off speculation that his party could leave the NDA.
This leaves Advani trapped between the Sangh Parivar and the
NDA's secular allies, with no easy choice between the two.
Deep Divisions
--------------


7. (C) The BJP itself remains deeply divided and in no shape
to present a serious challenge to the UPA government.
Advani's public stance indicates that he hopes to unite the
party around a "moderate Hindutva" orientation aimed at
pleasing the Sangh Parivar while not alienating moderates led
by Arun Jaitley, Pramod Mahajan, and Mukthar Abbas Naqvi.
Advani is counting on the help of Joshi and Sushma Swaraj,
who are ascendant. However, both Joshi and Swaraj want to
become PM. Until the party agrees on its next PM candidate,
it will be plagued by continued distrust and rivalry within
its top leadership.

But Determined to Confront the UPA
--------------


8. (C) Despite its weaknesses and string of electoral
defeats, the BJP remains determined to confront the UPA, even
on economic reform where there is no substantive
disagreement. In a November 1 meeting with the Ambassador
(Ref A),BJP Rajya Sabha leader Jaswant Singh bristled at the
personal attacks by the UPA has been leveling against the BJP
leadership and what it views as UPA efforts to purge the
bureaucracy of civil servants with BJP sympathies. Singh
also disparaged PM Manmohan Singh's abilities and described
the cabinet as a "disaster."


9. (SBU) Advani and other BJP parliamentary leaders
confirmed this private stance, telling the press that the
party will confront the UPA on the floor of parliament on a
long laundry list of issues including: "tainted ministers,"
the UPA's handling of terrorism in J&K, and the government's
handling of domestic security, which Party spokesman Naqvi
characterized as "the worst since Independence."


10. (U) Although the BJP will confront the UPA in
Parliament, it is also planning to change its tactics.
Advani told the party leadership that the previous
disruptions were "counterproductive," and that the party was
determined to conduct no more walkouts and boycotts. Advani
characterized these as "mistakes," saying "I don't think it
will happen again." However, speaking at a November 5
conference, party leader and former Law Minister Arun Jaitley
made clear that the BJP would not apologize for introducing
parliamentary gridlock that makes it difficult for the UPA to
pursue a substantive agenda.

No Good Options
--------------


11. (C) Although the BJP will continue to lock horns with
Congress, there is little to indicate that this will benefit
the party, as there is no clear option under which the BJP
could quickly return to power. The BJP and its NDA allies do
not currently have the numbers to bring down the government
through defection, or a vote of no-confidence, and are not
strong enough to defeat the UPA in an election.


12. (C) The Left/Communists can bring down the government by
withdrawing their support, but this would not benefit the
BJP, because it does not have enough allies to put together
an alternative. The Communists would only leave the UPA
after forging a third front with other Left-oriented parties
such as the Janata Dal(U) of Bihar and the Samajwadi
Party(SP) of Uttar Pradesh (UP),led by Chief Minister
Mulayam Singh Yadav. As a sworn enemy of the Left, the BJP
could never join or support such a grouping.


13. (C) The Sangh Parivar leadership argues that the BJP
should stop attempting to strengthen the NDA by pandering to
secular parties, and instead ally only with the Shiv Sena and
those parties willing to accept its Hindutva agenda. Should
Advani accept this proposal, it would further weaken the NDA
by causing most secular parties to leave the alliance,
postponing the day when it can return to power. Should he
reject it, the increasingly disaffected Sangh Parivar could
withdraw its support, which is crucial to the BJP's grass
roots organization.

The Importance of State Elections
--------------


14. (C) The NDA and the UPA are now focused on the February
elections in Jharkhand, Bihar, and Haryana, as they will be
indicative of which grouping is generating political
momentum. Congress sees these state victories as a crucial
step towards its goal of gaining sufficient strength to call
new elections, win a Parliamentary majority and form a
government without the Communists. Most political observers
agree that as soon as Congress is strong enough, it will call
new elections.


15. (C) In order to blunt UPA momentum, the BJP/NDA needs to
demonstrate to the Indian voter that it is gathering strength
and can present a serious electoral challenge to Congress.
Should the NDA fare badly in these state elections, it will
lose momentum, leading to more divisions, increasing
criticism of Advani and more calls by the Sangh Parivar to
embrace a Hindu nationalist ideology and agenda.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) India's key political players -- the BJP/NDA, the
Congress/UPA and the Communists -- are all vying for
position, with trends favoring Congress. However, none of
the three groupings has sufficient strength to rule on its
own, and the BJP cannot bring down the government or bring on
a new election. Although the BJP will engage in noisy
disputes with the UPA on a number of issues in the coming
months, they are unlikely to have much impact, aside from
slowing legislation. With the BJP distracted by deep
divisions and immersed in its internal affairs, Congress has
an opportunity to convince the electorate that it has the
ability to rule effectively. Facing no serious short-term
political challenge from the BJP, Congress could only provide
its BJP rivals an opening by failing to perform up to
expectations.
MULFORD