LOOKING AHEAD TO ASEAN: INDIA ENGAGES EAST ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007053

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014
TAGS: PREL TH VM BM LA KS JA IN ASEAN
SUBJECT: LOOKING AHEAD TO ASEAN: INDIA ENGAGES EAST ASIA

REF: A. NEWDELHI 6983

B. NEWDELHI 6472

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: The GOI has engaged actively with East Asian
capitals prior to the November 30 ASEAN Plus One Summit in
Laos. India's two-track approach to these
states--multilaterally through organizations like ASEAN, and
bilaterally--exemplifies New Delhi's strategy of expanding
economic and geographic horizons, with a wary eye on China.
Heading to Laos with Plus One status, India's Prime Minister
Singh will look to assert India's significance beyond South
Asia. We see competition with China as a growing factor in
India's ASEAN calculus. End Summary.

Two-Pronged Approach
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2. (C) India's approach towards East Asia is "two-pronged"
with both multilateral and bilateral tracks, according to
Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses researcher Deba
Mohanty. While pursuing bilateral cooperation such as
preferential trade agreements (PTA),India works
multilaterally through organizations such as BIMSTEC and
ASEAN, he explained. The GOI is proceeding "incrementally,"
he said, courting only select countries, at first
economically, and then politically.

Recent Bilaterals: Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, Japan
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3. (C) In October, senior GOI officials visited and hosted
officials from a number of East Asian countries. South
Korean President Roh Moo-hyun traveled to New Delhi October
4-6, at the conclusion of which, the two countries signed a
joint statement detailing cooperation in security, trade, and
UNSC reform (Ref B). Earning a second Bangkok stamp in his
passport in less than six months, FM Natwar Singh stopped in
Thailand on October 14, enroute to Hanoi. While India has
deepening economic ties with Thailand, such as the nascent
PTA, there are also geostrategic components to India's
interests in that country. According to JNU Professor of
South East Asian studies Manmohini Kaul, Thailand encouraged
the GOI to engage Burma ahead of Than Shwe's Delhi trip.


4. (C) FM Singh's trip to Vietnam October 15-18 was less
significant in strategic terms, Kaul continued, describing
that relationship as more "historical." The FM also made an
effort to secure one more handshake in support of India's bid
for permanent membership in the UNSC. The IDSA's Mohanty
noted that India sees Vietnam as a big market, but also as a
"strategic balance between China and East Asia," which has
resulted in "low level discomfort" in Beijing.


5. (C) Burmese military leader Than Shwe's October 24-29
visit to India was important in the context of Burma's
position as India's gateway to East Asia (Ref A). Mohanty
observed that "Look East" began with Burma. India will also
follow a "two track policy," there of not alienating the
government for economic reasons, but will attempt to "create
space for democracy." Following the Japanese Foreign
Minister's visit to New Delhi this summer, a Parliamentary
delegation lead by Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee
traveled to Japan from October 31 to November 6 and met with
Japanese officials including PM Junichiro Koizumi. The
Japanese Embassy called the visit an attempt to "resuscitate
Parliamentary exchanges," supporting Mohanty's observation
that India is trying to "renew ties with Japan in a big way,"
after the relationship flatlined following India's 1998
nuclear tests.

Multilateral Prong: ASEAN
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6. (C) The GOI's recent bilateral exchanges with East Asia
complement its outreach to ASEAN as an institution. Prior to
Natwar Singh's departure for Bangkok and Hanoi, the MEA
observed that Vietnam is part of ASEAN and India-Vietnam
relations "have coincided with developments in India-ASEAN
relations." Looking ahead to November's ASEAN Plus One
Summit in Laos, Kaul said that despite India's early
reservations about the organization because of conflicts with
its historical non-aligned orientation, India appreciates its
ASEAN Plus One designation as recognition of New Delhi's
importance on par with the ASEAN Plus Three countries (South
Korea, Japan, and China). Professor Kaul noted that the Plus
One designation may be an attempt to stave off India, as few
ASEAN members support India's fuller membership in the
grouping.

China vs. India: Heavyweight Matchup
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7. (C) Our interlocutors stress the growing importance of
China in India's calculations with respect to East Asia.
Professor Kaul observed that East Asian leaders encourage
India's greater involvement as a "balance" to China's growing
influence: "other countries know that only India can stand up
to China." The IDSA's Mohanty put it more simply: "the
reason for "Look East" is China," even though it is a two-way
exchange. India, concerned about Chinese encroachment into
neighboring countries, such as Burma, is eager to insert
itself into East Asia. While the dominant view here is of
the two Asian giants butting heads strategically, Mohanty
commented that CT interests could bring India and China
together. Asked why India has not been invited to join the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),a CT grouping of
China's creating, Mohanty said India is still unsure of
Beijing's intentions with the SCO.


8. (C) Professor Kaul noted that India was welcome in East
Asia because New Delhi "has not given any indication of
having big brotherly or hegemonistic intentions." The
difference between China and India in East Asia, she added,
is that while "India makes announcements, China is striding
ahead." As an example she offered the much touted but as yet
non-existent Thailand, Burma, India highway, and asked
rhetorically, "who will travel on it?" Mohanty observed that
India will downplay the China factor in its "Look East"
policy in favor of plugging economic initiatives.

The UPA's Eastern Impetus
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9. (C) Professor Kaul observed that the GOI has a Look
Easter in the PMO's office in the form of Media Adviser
Sanjay Baru who is known to be a strong proponent of BIMSTEC
(the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Economic
Cooperation). She argued that Baru would help to reinforce
the government's East Asia emphasis.

Comment
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10. (C) Strengthening India's relations with East Asia
presents New Delhi with an opportunity to assert its
interests both economically and strategically, in a region
where its motivations are not yet perceived as "big
brotherly." This contrasts with the sense among India's
immediate South Asian neighbors that New Delhi's intentions
are over-bearing, if not hegemonistic. As India is already
recognized as the big player in South Asia, strategic
concerns vis-a-vis China are less salient. PM Manmohan
Singh's immediate thrust at the ASEAN Plus One Summit is
likely to be economic, as India beefs up its regional
profile, but this will also be an opportunity for the
little-traveled PM to engage with a broader cross-section of
East and Southeast Asian leaders as he continues to define
the Congress vision for international relations.
MULFORD