INDIA RATTLED BY DEVELOPMENTS IN BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 005734


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV BG IN
SUBJECT: INDIA RATTLED BY DEVELOPMENTS IN BANGLADESH

REF: A. DHAKA 3127

B. NEW DELHI 5486

C. CALCUTTA 350

Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt. Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Bangladesh watchers in New Delhi have reacted
with concern to recent violence there, citing the August 21
attack on opposition leader Sheikh Hasina as symptomatic of a
deterioration in the country's political culture, fueling
instability in Bangladesh which contributes directly to
violence in India's northeast. Home Secretary Dhirendra
Singh will raise these issues and others when he travels to
Dhaka later in September. In a new twist, some prominent
Indian commentators are now blaming the GOI for having an
inadequate Bangladesh policy. The Bangladeshi High
Commission insists Indo-Bangladesh relations are excellent.
End Summary.


2. (C) While the April 2 Chittagong arms haul and the
attempted assassination of the British High Commissioner in
Sylhet, have worried Indian Bangladesh watchers, the August
21 attack on Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina set off a new
round of concern in New Delhi. General (Retd.) Dipankar
Banerjee, Director of the Institute for Peace and Conflict
Studies (IPCS) called the grenade attack "a violent
manifestation of Islamic extremism," which had grown in
Bangladesh. "The Hindu" editorialized that the incident was
a result of the BDG's "laissez faire attitude towards
extremist groups." Dr. Sreeradha Datta, Associate Fellow at
the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) warned
us that pervasive lawlessness in many parts of Bangladesh
enables extremist individuals and groups to operate outside
Dhaka's reach.

Bangladesh's Backyard
--------------


3. (C) These concerns about extremist groups based in
Bangladesh, reiterated by MEA officials during Ambassador
Cofer Black's Counterterrorism Joint Working Group meeting
(Ref C),are nothing new. What is new is that the GOI may be
prepared to engage more directly with Dhaka to tackle some of
these issues. During his upcoming September 16-17 trip to
Dhaka, Home Secretary Dhirendra Singh will provide to the BDG
a list of insurgents' installations, for the sixth time,
according to MEA Under Secretary (Bangladesh) Puneet Kundal.
He told Poloff the meeting is intended to restart a dialogue
on security issues that has been stalled since 2000. Singh
will also request the BDG to turn over fugitives the GOI
believes have taken refuge in Bangladesh, reportedly
including United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
Commander-in-Chief Paresh Barua. The problem, Kundal
explained, is that Bangladesh sees India's northeast as its
"backyard." New Delhi can take no other approach, Kundal
added, except to continue to have talks, biannually between
the Border Security Force and the Bangladesh Rifles, and at
the Home Secretary level.


4. (C) The August 21 attack on Hasina has deepened Indian
concerns about the links between Bangladesh-based groups and
guerrillas in India's northeast. The group that Indian media
reported as responsible for the incident,
Harkat-ul-Jehad-I-Islami Bangladesh (HUJI-B),has connections
that can be traced to India, according to Delhi-based South
Asia Terrorism Portal's SATP.org. SATP reports that HUJI-B
is affiliated with the ULFA and runs ULFA camps in Bangladesh
as well as sending its own members into West Bengal and
Assam. Retired General Banerjee remarked that corruption
among India's Border Security Forces facilitates cross-border
infiltration. The MEA's Kundal added that there is an
"ethnolinguistic homogeneity" among Bangladeshis and Indians
in the border area which in combination with Dhaka's desire
for "leverage" over New Delhi, contributes to the BDG's
unwillingness to limit militant activity (Ref A).

Neglecting the Neighbor
--------------


5. (U) The Sheikh Hasina incident has prompted a spate of
analysis of New Delhi's policy towards Bangladesh by some of
India's more prominent foreign policy commentators, with
widespread concern that New Delhi's approach has been
inadequate. Head of South Asia Studies at Jawarhalal Nehru
University (JNU) and strategic affairs writer C. Raja Mohan
on August 27 accused the GOI of "drift" in its regional
foreign policy. Compared to India's current relationships
with Pakistan and China (its "two most difficult neighbors")
India's policy on Nepal, Bangladesh, and Maldives suffers
from a "lack of sustained attention and a seriousness of
purpose." The attempt on Hasina "showcased the gathering
storm," in Bangladesh, he wrote. Similarly, Prem Shankar
Jha, former editor of the Hindustan Times, wrote of the
negative effects on Dhaka of India's "past inaction." The
GOI has taken decisions that have profound impacts on
Bangladesh, including river interlinking, without consulting
Dhaka, which has fostered a deep resentment in Bangladesh
about India, Jha argued.


6. (C) Echoing Mohan and Jha, the IDSA's Datta argued that
New Delhi has contributed to poor ties with Dhaka by not
keeping its neighbors happy, and that the countries suffer
from a "communication gap." General Banerjee described
India's policy towards Bangladesh as "deliberately
hands-off," although he noted that the GOI has few
alternatives as India cannot interfere in Bangladesh's
internal affairs. Wary that India may have to pay a price
for that policy, retired intelligence officer Bibhuti Bhusan
Nandy charged in a long, two-part September op-ed piece that
the NDA looked the other way while minorities became victim
to "fundamentalist forces."

Bangladesh as a Warning to India
--------------


7. (C) Prompted by these events "Hindustan Times" editor
Manoj Joshi recently took his analysis of events in
Bangladesh a step further asking whether India will go the
way its dysfunctional neighbors already have. Joshi argued
that the domestic political situation of complete
non-cooperation between the two dominant parties in Dhaka has
"allowed space for scores of uncontrolled extremist groups."
Urging New Delhi to heed the warning sounding from India's
borders, Joshi wrote that PM Singh should "make the
political-administrative system functional again," lest India
go the way of Bangladesh.

High Commission: Everything is OK
--------------


8. (C) Our contacts at the Bangladesh High Commission (BHC)
have consistently maintained that reports of terrorist camps
in Bangladesh are "baseless" and "outrageous." Nonetheless,
BHC poloff Bodiruzzaman told us on September 2 that while
there are temporary irritants in the bilateral relationship,
relations are excellent, and Indians and Bangladeshis are
"brothers."

Hasina's Visit
--------------


9. (C) During her late July visit to India, opposition leader
Sheikh Hasina was received with nearly all the formalities of
an official visit. With the exception of a Hyderabad House
reception, which is strictly reserved for heads of state or
government, Hasina's trip to India included all the trappings
of a state visit, including calls on Manmohan Singh, Foreign
Minister K Natwar Singh, and Leader of the Opposition LK
Advani, and a dinner hosted by the Foreign Minister. Denying
the visit any particular significance, the Bangladesh High
Commission's Bodiruzzaman said that such treatment is to be
expected and is simply a function of a long and good
relationship.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) It is notable that the UPA government that began its
term with a strong focus on its immediate neighbors is now
facing criticism from respected commentators of doing just
the opposite with regard to Bangladesh. Although Prime
Ministers Singh and Zia met at the July 31 BIMSTEC Summit,
GOI red carpet treatment of Hasina fueled the widely held
view here that India simply prefers to deal with the Awami
League and does not have the vision to build a constructive
relationship with the BNP. While the Home Secretary's visit
is high-level, there is no talk of a Foreign Minister's trip
to Dhaka until the PM and Natwar Singh travel to Dhaka for
the January SAARC Summit. Meanwhile, Bangladesh presents a
collection of fears for India, which is worried about the
spillover of extremism and anti-Hindu sentiment, the
implications of political instability for India's own
internal security in the northeast, groups inimical to India
operating from within Bangladesh, and the demographic
consequences of Bangladeshi migration into India.


MULFORD