LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: AN UNDERDOG FIGHTS AN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 001033

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2014
TAGS: PREL BF
SUBJECT: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: AN UNDERDOG FIGHTS AN
UPHILL BATTLE

Classified By: CHARGE ROBERT M. WITAJEWSKI FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Charge and Political Officer met with Senator Tommy
Turnquest, Leader of the Opposition, on May 18, 2004, to
discuss current events in The Bahamas. Under the Ingraham
administration from 1992-2002, Tommy Turnquest held the
positions of Minister of Public Service, Immigration and
Housing, Minister of Public Works, and Minister of Public
Service and Labor. Turnquest failed to hold his elected seat
in the 2002 election, a humiliation given that he had been
made party leader only two months earlier. In The Bahamas,
Senators are appointed by party vote based on a predetermined
formula, which allowed Turnquest to regain an unelected
presence in Parliament. The possible bi-election for Sidney
Stubb's seat in the Holy Cross constituency was discussed at
length. Mr. Turnquest claims not to be personally interested
in running for this seat, and plans to leave that campaign to
his deputy, Mr. Carl Bethel. Tommy Turnquest questioned the
Charge somewhat aggressively about the relationship between
the United States and The Bahamas, as if he were looking for
fodder with which to attack the current Christie government.


BI-ELECTION FOR HOLY CROSS CONSTITUENCY
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2. (C) The leader of the opposition party, the Free National
Movement (FNM),Turnquest told Charge that he does not plan
to run in the possible summer by-election for the Holy Cross
constituency, middle-class swing seat, located in Nassau.
Controversy currently surrounds the present holder of the
seat, Sidney Stubbs, regarding a recent court determination
that he was in bankrupcy. The Bahamian constitution requires
bankrupt members of Parliament to resign within 120 days of
such a finding. A resignation, and a subsequent by-election,
is viewed as an important referendum on the first two years
of the ruling Progressive Liberal Party's performance in the
run-up to the 2007 general election and an opportunity for
the FNM to gauge its mid-cycle standing with the Bahamian
electorate.


3. (C) Turnquest indicated that he has no plans to run for
this seat, but fully supports "his close friend", Carl
Bethel, to represent the FNM. Turnquest estimated the FNM's
chances of winning the seat at 50-50. Claiming that the
sitting government had tremendous resources -- public works
projects and jobs -- to bring to bear in the campaign,
Turnquest sniped that were the PLP government not so weak its
odds of retaining the seat would be 70-30.


4. (C) The Holy Cross constituency contains approximately
4,000 middle-class voters, including a large number of
mid-level civil servants. The election, predicted Turnquest,
would be costly for both parties as each would pour resources
into it, his FNM to embarrass the government, the PLP to
avoid an embarrassing defeat. Each of the voters in the
constituency would be personally contacted and both parties
would hold almost nightly (and expensive) rallies. As many
as 40-80 campaign workers would be brought in by each party
for the campaign.


5. (C) Turnquest estimated that the FNM would spend between
$150,000 - $250,000 on the election, should it take place.
When asked how he could possibly spend that much money on so
few voters, Turnquest merely replied: "Bahamians like free
paraphernalia".


6. (C) Turnquest expressed some doubt that the election
would even be called, pointing out that Stubbs could avoid
resignation if his attorneys succeed in overturning the
court's bankruptcy finding. He also noted that there is a
second vacancy in the St. Cecelia constituency that is firmly
PLP and PM Christie may chose to call that by-election
simultaneously. Turnquest hinted that the odds of FNM
victory in the PLP stronghold of St. Cecelia were so slim
that his party might not even contest the election.
Nevertheless, he insisted that even a 50-50 split in the two
by-elections would be a FNM victory since both seats are
currently held by the PLP.


7. (C) Asked about the issues likely to dominate the
campaign, Turnquest acknowledged that the FNM had hired a
marketing company to conduct polls during the general
election -- although the results were closely held within the
party leadership -- and that he had lately been commissioning
"focus groups" to probe public opinion. Turnquest said that
he had personally attended quite a few of these "focus
groups".

TOMMY BORN WITH A SILVER SPOON IN HIS MOUTH
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8. (C) Born to the wealthy family of Sir Orville and Lady
Edith Turnquest, Turnquest admitted that he comes from
"privilege". He subsequently married into a wealthy Bahamian
family as well. As a shareholder of Focal, a Freeport-based
oil company, the Turnquests have a steady stream of income.
Many Bahamians see this as a barrier to his political career.
Whereas his father was a self-made man, "Tommy" is seen by
some Bahamians as a spoiled brat. His three children are all
attending/have attended exclusive prep schools in the United
States and all are bound for similarly-expensive Ivy League
universities.


9. (C) Turnquest maintains fierce loyalty to the FNM Party
and queried repetitively the U.S. view of the performance of
the Christie administration. He ranted that Prime Minister
Christie's slow decision-making has wasted valuable Bahamian
resources, lost many contracts and put the Bahamian people at
a disadvantage. On the FNM website, Turnquest gives the PLP
an "F" for effectiveness.


COMMENT
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10. (C) In a small country where the "Cheers" phrase
"everyone knows your name" really is true, charisma and
dynamism, both personally and publicly, is a prerequisite for
a politician. Bahamians expect their political leaders to
"perform" when giving speeches. As the son of the former
Governor General Sir Orville, Tommy's opportunities to date
have come because of his family lineage. Privately Turnquest
does not project the "gravitas" expected of a leader, nor
publicly the rivalist oratorical skills expected of a
politician.


11. (C) Previously, former (most Bahamians would argue true)
party leader Hubert Ingraham told us that he expects Tommy to
fight a Stubbs by-election to prove he has the guts and skill
to win an election on his own as party leader. Turnquest
apparently didn't get the word, insisting to us just a week
later that rather than engage in a messy internal dispute
with his rival (and deputy) Carl Bethel, he, Turnquest, in
the spirit of self-abnegation will allow Bethel to contest
for the seat if a vacancy occurs. Only in a scenario in
which Bethel loses ignominiously does Turnquest possibly come
out a winner. A Bethel victory (or even a close defeat)
immediately projects Bethel into a leading position and makes
Turnquest's own position as party leader almost untenable.
Even a Bethel defeat keeps Turnquest's future in doubt since
many in the party may well conclude that none of the "next
generation" leaders can win and only calling Hubert Ingraham
recalled from retirement has the oomph to make Perry Christie
a one-term prime minister.


12. (C) As expensive as Bahamian elections have become, they
remain relatively unsophisticated. Turnquest's belief that
he can sit in on a "focus group" probing his own character
and image without biasing the results reflects the relative
navet with which Bahamian politicians approach survey
research.
WITAJEWSKI