MOZAMBIQUE 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS: ELECTION EVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001538

SIPDIS
STATE PASS TO MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
STATE FOR AF/S AND AF/FO
MCC FOR BRIGGS AND GAULL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MZ
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS: ELECTION EVE

REF: A. MAPUTO 1494


B. MAPUTO 1474

C. MAPUTO 1406

D. MAPUTO 1371
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) Campaigning for Mozambique's December 1 - 2 general
elections has ended, and there is no consensus as to what
outcome is likely. The negotiations between the National
Elections Commission and the European Union appear to have
ended with the release of a new electoral process directive
that sets the level of observer access at the tabulation
phases. The changes do not meet EU demands for full
transparency, but they do appear to reduce the space for
manipulation. Similarly, vote tabulation software appears to
have been made more secure, though RENAMO continues to
express concern. The two main parties are accusing each
other of planning various dirty tricks. Former President
Carter has arrived to lead the Carter Center observation
effort. Post does not expect major problems on the voting
days, though isolated incidents and some confusion are
inevitable, as are RENAMO claims of fraud. Once the voting
is complete, attention will shift to the provincial and
national levels of tabulation, which are expected to last
until the December 17 deadline for publication of results.
End Summary.

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Campaign Ends
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2. (C) The official campaign period ended December 28.
FRELIMO candidate Armando Guebuza and RENAMO candidate Afonso
Dhlakama drew enthusiastic crowds to their events, though it
is not clear how many were attracted by T-shirts and other
handouts. Guebuza's rallies have included large numbers of
government workers and officials, and many observers assume
that FRELIMO is using public resources. Mrs. Guebuza has
played a visible campaign role, making her the first
candidate's wife to do so. Dhlakama has made many
unrealistic promises of the prosperity that would result if
he is elected. He also claimed in a recent interview that if
the election is not democratic, he would govern by force in
the provinces where he wins a majority, though it is
difficult to imagine him attempting to do so. Unlike in the
1999 election, candidates from three other parties are in the
race. One, Raul Domingos of the Party for Peace, Development
and Democracy (PDD) appears to be attracting support. In the
absence of reliable polls (polls are prohibited during the
campaign, and the few pre-campaign polls were not credible),
it is not clear what result is likely.


3. (C) Domingos' apparent success has led some observers to
raise the possibility of a runoff. In 1999, running only
against Dhlakama, incumbent President Chissano only managed
to get 52 percent of the votes. It is conceivable that
Guebuza and Dhlakama could split most of the vote with
Domingos receiving five percent or so, which would mean that
no candidate would receive the 50 percent needed for a
first-round victory. According to electoral law, a runoff
must take place within 21 days from the date the National
Elections Commission (CNE) publishes the first round results,
set by law for December 17. Despite claims that a runoff
would not be difficult logistically, a UNDP source at the
Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE)
admitted during a November 18 donor group meeting that no
planning or preparation has taken place to support a second
round. There are more than 10 million registered voters and
12,000 polling stations throughout the country, so it is
unclear how another round could occur on schedule. The
source implied that there may be wiggle room in the law,
predicting that any runoff would not be held before
mid-February.

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CNE Sets Terms of Observer Access
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4. (C) On November 18, the CNE effectively closed the door to
further negotiations on observer access with the issuance of
a new directive, Deliberation 77. (Ten of the CNE's 18
members represent FRELIMO, while the others represent RENAMO.
Many of the recent electoral process decisions have been
taken by the FRELIMO majority over the opposition of the
RENAMO representatives.) The directive caught many close to
the dispute by surprise. According to a source at the Dutch
Embassy, the negotiations, though admittedly stalled, had not
been abandoned by the EU and they were unaware the CNE was
planning new directives. Deliberation 77 is an improvement,
in that press and observers are provided access to the
reclassification of null and protested ballots, as well as a
computer link to view final tabulation data. However, the
access granted still falls short of full transparency sought
by the European Union, the Carter Center and Commonwealth
observers. In addition to these groups, there also will be
observers from the Southern African Development Community
(SADC) member states and embassies resident in Maputo,
including 17 from post. (See reftels.) Former President
Carter arrived in Maputo on November 28 to head the Carter
Center's observation mission.


5. (C) Deliberation 77 also confirms that there will be two
official parallel quick counts by the STAE -- one at the
provincial level and one in Maputo -- both completed on the
basis of polling station result sheets (editais).
Deliberation 77 states that the provincial count "prevails,
in general," over the Maputo count. However, the CNE may
overrule provincial count decisions in all parts of the
tabulation process. Any such decisions would be carried out
by the CNE without public access, though the RENAMO CNE
members would presumably be present, and it is unclear if the
CNE will later publish a full list of changes made to
provincial counts. On a positive note, unlike years past,
copies of editais from individual polling stations will not
be faxed to the CNE in Maputo for the parallel count but will
be hand-carried by two people, each representing one of the
two major parties. (Note: RENAMO's objection to faxing
editais was upheld by the CNE, based on experience from the
2003 municipal elections where a FRELIMO STAE technician in
Beira was caught tampering with editais before they were
faxed. End note.)


6. (C) However, as in past elections, the CNE has again ruled
that polling station results excluded from the provincial
count due to errors, often minor human ones, will be
reconsidered by the CNE without public access. In the 1999
elections, more than 1800 editais, or 11 percent of the
total, were excluded from provincial totals and sent to
Maputo for reconsideration by the CNE. That year, RENAMO
walked out in protest during the time-consuming and often
contentious reconsideration process, leaving FRELIMO CNE
members to make final judgments. In the end, the CNE
accepted about one-third of the problem editais, rejecting
the remaining two-thirds as unusable. This meant that over
300,000 votes cast for president were not counted. (Note:
Various international organizations conducted parallel
calculations that suggested the excluded editais came from
areas supporting RENAMO. However, no recalculation indicated
that the final result would have changed in favor of
Dhlakama. End note.)

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New Polling Stations
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7. (SBU) Some diplomats and international donor
representatives are also concerned with the recent addition
of polling locations. Voters in Mozambique may only cast
ballots at their designated polling station, usually the site
where the individual registered to vote. STAE has recently
added new polling locations for this year's general
elections, in some cases miles away from existing sites.
Despite civic education campaigns informing voters of
adjustments in locations, the changes are likely to
disenfranchise some voters.

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Watching the Count
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8. (SBU) There is also the issue of observer access at the
provincial and national tabulation phases, where the records
of votes from each polling station will be added and disputed
or invalid votes reviewed. Although the CNE spokesperson
recently assured the press that journalists, party
representatives, and observers could pull up through a
computer link any edital from any polling station and compare
it to their own copy, it is still unclear whether this will
indeed be possible. Not all provinces will be equipped with
computer links for observers, and in practice, provincial
election officials will have a considerable amount of leeway
in what observers may do. In addition, the database will not
provide details on missing editais -- the result of slow data
entry, perhaps, or the more troublesome excluded editais.
Also, limitations in data collected by observers and party
representatives means that there will be discrepancies
between the provincial final results and the observer data,
opening the window for manipulation. The CNE has only
recently approved the software used to tabulate the editais -
reportedly over RENAMO objections. After a very quick audit,
which appears to have resulted in changes to make the system
somewhat more secure, the system was presented to the
parties, observers, and the press on November 27.


9. (SBU) Both FRELIMO and RENAMO will conduct detailed
parallel counts, as will the National Electoral Observatory
(an NGO) helped by the Carter Center. Organizations involved
in the parallel counts are confident that, if they have the
information they need before the election to choose their
sample sites, their counts will be no more than two percent
off the actual results. With this proviso, manipulation in
anything but a close race ought to be easily detected.

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Mutual Accusations
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10. (C) As the voting approaches, FRELIMO and RENAMO have
accused each other of plotting various misdeeds. President
Chissano told the Ambassador during their Nov. 24 meeting on
Zimbabwe (septel) that RENAMO was readying disruption tactics
to use during the voting. He said he had learned that RENAMO
would urge all its supporters to cast their ballots on the
first day of voting, December 1. Then, on December 2, party
activists would stage "disturbances" to scare off other
voters, most of them presumably FRELIMO backers. Separately,
RENAMO has claimed that there is a plot to kill Dhlakama, and
RENAMO called embassies to report that police had fired tear
gas at Dhlakama supporters at RENAMO's Nov. 28
end-of-campaign rally. Also, RENAMO continues to object to
nearly all CNE decisions relating to the elections process,
and the CNE has accused RENAMO of instructing its
participants in the process to block the use of the vote
tabulation software. Post has not heard independent
confirmation of any of the various allegations.

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Comment
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11. (SBU) Post expects routine problems at polling places on
the voting days, mainly of a logistical rather than an
intentional nature. We also expect RENAMO to claim fraud
regardless of how widespread these problems are. Once the
voting is complete, attention will shift to the provincial
and national levels of tabulation, which are expected to last
until the December 17 deadline for publication of results.
LA LIME