PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GUEBUZA ON BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001196

SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO AND AF/S
NSC FOR COURVILLE
PASS USTR FOR P.COLEMAN
PASS MCC FOR T.BRIGGS AND S.GAULL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ FRELIMO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GUEBUZA ON BILATERAL
RELATIONS, CAMPAIGN, PLANS FOR GOVERNING

REF: MAPUTO 1154

Classified By: AMBASSADOR HELEN LA LIME, REASON 1.5(D)

1.(C) Summary: Ruling party presidential candidate Guebuza
told Ambassador La Lime he hoped to capitalize on the
surprisingly widespread sympathy for Mozambique he found in
his July trip to the U.S. He described the recent violent
RENAMO-FRELIMO skirmishes in Sofala province (reftel) as
troubling but limited confrontations. He appeared confident
that he would win the December 1-2 elections. Guebuza cited
as priorities for his government decentralization, training,
fighting AIDS, and most of all getting results. He also
acknowledged deficiencies in the police and courts. End
Summary.

2.(U) Ambassador La Lime and DCM met on September 6 with
ruling party presidential candidate Armando Guebuza. Since
returning from a July visit to the United States to attend
the Democratic convention and meet with Administration
officials, Guebuza has been making high-profile appearances
throughout the country, visiting all provinces except Maputo.
Although formal campaigning may not begin until mid-October,
Guebuza has been much more visible to date than his only
significant opponent, RENAMO leader and two-time unsuccessful
candidate Afonso Dhlakama, who recently visited China and is
currently in the United States.

Bilateral Relations
--------------
3.(C) Ambassador La Lime reviewed key bilateral themes and
our interest in strengthening the relationship. She noted
the visit the previous week of a Millennium Challenge
Corporation team to consult with Mozambicans preparing the
country,s proposal for MCC assistance. She explained that
the House,s cut in the Administration,s FY05 budget
proposal meant that Mozambique would need to set priorities
among the several projects it had initially identified. On
HIV/AIDS issues, she explained that, despite some recent
press reports, the USG cooperates regularly with GRM health
officials and seeks their advice in shaping our comprehensive
program. She also noted our desire to strengthen our trade
and investment relationship and said that a first step would
be Mozambican enactment of the 1999 bilateral investment
agreement, once we confirm whether executive decree is
acceptable or whether legislative approval is necessary.

4.(C) Guebuza said that during his July trip to the U.S. he
had been pleasantly taken aback by the amount of sympathy he
found for Mozambique. He noted that in earlier times he had
found widely differing views within the U.S., but that now
the support seemed widespread, and he was very interested in
capitalizing on it. On development issues, he acknowledged
the Mozambican MCC team,s focus on the private sector and
said the country needed to increase Mozambicans, management
capacity.

Presidential Campaign
--------------
5.(C) Guebuza said he would formally present his candidacy
for the December 1-2 elections later that day. He described
the recent violent RENAMO-FRELIMO skirmishes in Sofala
province (reftel) as troubling but limited confrontations
that were not the crisis that the press was portraying. The
Ambassador noted our concern over the Inhaminga violence.
Guebuza acknowledged the need to incorporate RENAMO candidate
Dhlakama,s armed bodyguards into the police; he said this
had been a problem for ten years that needed to be resolved,
but he noted that both sides were now making statements of
intent to resolve it. He said that the creation of jobs
would prevent people from thinking of war, and he emphasized
the positive role that could be played by the Sena railway
line that the World Bank had just agreed to fund.

6.(C) In response to a question about varying analyses of
RENAMO,s strength, Guebuza disagreed with the idea that
RENAMO,s support was stronger than FRELIMO,s in the rural
areas that make up most of the country and that were not
included in last year,s municipal elections. He noted that
most of the municipalities that FRELIMO had won last year
were in fact more rural than urban, and he appeared confident
that FRELIMO had majority support in the country as a whole.
He acknowledged the importance of the electoral process and
said FRELIMO was ready to accept a fair result. He expected
a peaceful election without great difficulties and welcomed
the likely visit of former President Carter to oversee the
Carter Center,s monitoring effort. Though he noted that it
was good to see ex-presidents doing such things, he did not
raise the topic of what, if any, role President Chissano
might play in Mozambique after leaving the office he has held
since 1986.

Looking to a Guebuza Government
--------------
7.(C) Guebuza said that his government would value and
benefit from the experience FRELIMO had gained since 1974.
He cited decentralization as a focus and said he wanted to
increase the government,s capacity to make a difference in
rural areas. He also emphasized the need for more training,
a focus of the GRM,s dialogue with the World Bank. He cited
the lack of technical schools in rural areas as a key
deficiency he had identified in his travels over the last
month. Guebuza noted as well the importance of fighting
AIDS. In response to the Ambassador,s comment that the
justice system was inhibiting investment and growth, he
acknowledged problems with both the police and the courts,
though he described them as being in rural areas. He said
Mozambicans needed to know that their actions would bring
clear responses from all areas of the justice system.
Guebuza emphasized his focus on monitoring and results in all
government efforts.

8.(C) Comment: It appeared that Guebuza was being careful to
avoid any perception that he would act differently from the
popular Chissano, with whom he is not close. He made a point
the Prime Minister also made to the MCC team when they
visited last week, which is that the reform priorities have
been set and forward movement on them will continue. While
Guebuza,s priorities do not sound all that different from
Chissano,s, he is widely viewed as one who would be tougher
on accountability and on delivery of results, should he be
elected as Mozambique,s next President. End comment.
LA LIME