GOVERNMENT ARRESTS - A POSSIBLE RESOLUTION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000687

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AND DRL/PHD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2029
TAGS: PHUM PGOV BA
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT ARRESTS - A POSSIBLE RESOLUTION IN
SIGHT?

REF: A. STATE 103009


B. MANAMA 638

C. MANAMA 237

Classified By: CDA Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.5(b)(d).

1.(C) SUMMARY: The government will release the 14 detainees
arrested for gathering petition signatures if the opposition
agrees to drop its illegal petition drive. According to
Bahraini law, a corporate entity may only submit to
government a petition signed by the entity's members. The
government arrested the petitioners because of allegations
they were coercing citizens to sign the petition. The
detainees are maintaining their hunger strike and small
demonstrations are being held on their behalf. One detainee
was taken to hospital. The government and the hardline
opposition are engaged in a dialogue through many
intermediaries. They appear to be close to a political
agreement that could win the detainees' release and mark the
hard line opposition's formal acceptance of the 2002
constitution as the law of the land. That could mark the
beginning of full participation in Bahrain's democratic
reform experiment, increasing significantly its prospects for
success. END SUMMARY.

2.(C) The government arrested petition gatherers because they
were coercing people who refused to sign the petition with
threats of shunning, Foreign Ministry Assistant
Undersecretary for Cooperation and Follow up Shaikh Abd
al-Aziz bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa told POL/ECON Chief on May 9.
Shura Council member and human rights activist Faisal Fuladh
verified to POL/ECON Chief and POLOFF on May 10 that citizens
had complained to him and other National Assembly members
about intimidation, and several press reports on coercion
have been published. (COMMENT: The opposition societies
used similar coercion tactics to enforce their boycott of the
October 2002. END COMMENT)

3.(C) Royal advisor Hassan Fakhro and Shaikh Abd al-Aziz told
us separately that Bahraini law forbids general petition
drives; a society may only submit to government a petition
signed by the society's members. Fakhro said the government
arrested the signature gatherers specifically because they
violated this law. Minister of Industry and royal confidante
Hassan Fakhro told Charge on May 11 that the Attorney General
would drop the charges and release the 15 Bahrainis now in
custody if the four hardline opposition political societies
agreed in writing to drop their illegal petition drive and
submit their constitutional amendment requests to the
parliament.

4.(C) Fakhro told Charge that numerous intermediaries,
including members of parliament and prominent journalists,
were facilitating a dialogue between the hardline societies
and the government. Face-to-face meetings have also occured.
According to Fakhro, the King received pre-eminent Shia
religious scholars Shaikh Isa Qasim and Sayyid Abdulla
al-Ghurayfi to help "clear the air." Fakhro added that the
King has also offered a meeting with the leaders of the four
societies if they will drop the petition drive. Fakhro said
that al-Wifaq's leaders are unwilling to sign an agreement to
drop the petition drive to obtain the release of the
detainees, all of whom are al-Wifaq members.

5.(C) Our local NDI rep advised on May 11 that although he
did not insert himself into the process, both the government
and the opposition had approached him for advice and to act
as an informal intermediary. He said that opposition leaders
had refused the initial government demand to sign before the
Attorney General a letter stating that they would "abide by
the law of the land." Our contact said that the Minister of
the Royal Court accepted the NDI rep's compromise proposal
that opposition leaders and prominent political figures in
society who have been trying to defuse the crisis would sign
such a letter before the King. The NDI rep noted that this
would put the leaders of the hard line opposition societies
on record as accepting the constitution as the "law of the
land."

6.(C) According to its president, the Bahrain Centre for
Human Rights (BCHR) has been facilitating small family member
demonstrations at the Justice Ministry and other public
locations (police station, Seef Mall). He verified that an
attempt to demonstrate in front of the Prime Minister's
office was prevented by police and the demonstration
organizer arrested. Hassan Fakhro told Charge on May 11 that
the organizer was released from jail on May 10. The BCHR
president confirmed that the arrested petitioners remain, as
of May 11, on a hunger strike. One was taken to hospital on
May 9 after he collapsed.

7.(C) COMMENT: As with February's constitutional seminar
imbroglio, the government is not handling this situation
deftly. Shura Council member Faisal Fuladh belittled the
government approach, arguing it should have just let the
societies gather signatures and submit their petition. The
government could file it "appropriately" afterward, he noted.
To us, government signals to the hardline opposition are
inconsistent. The King accepted last fall a 35,000 signature
petition collected by the National Committee for the Victims
of Torture. Most of the singatories were not members of the
society. The government has arrested violent demonstrators,
but released them with no charge or trial. They arrested
petition gatherers and charged them with sedition. The mixed
signals have confused the opposition; al-Wifaq Human Rights
Committee Chairman Adel Abbassi disclaimed to POLOFF "we
don't know how to dance with the government anymore."

8.(C) Despite the confusion, which could very well be
attributed to Bahrain's inexperience with democracy, the
government and opposition appear close to reaching a
compromise that would win the detainees' release. That
compromise may also include the opposition's formal
acceptance of the 2002 constitution as the law of the land.
Such a political agreement could prove to be the beginning of
full participation in Bahrain's democratic reform experiment,
increasing its probability of success. END COMMENT.
FORD