Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04MANAMA498
2004-04-08 13:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

BAHRAINI SHIA INITIALLY COOL ON MUQTADA AL-SADR

Tags:  PINS ASEC PREL BA 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 000498 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP
CAIRO FOR STEVE BONDY
LONDON FOR ETHAN GOLDRICH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2029
TAGS: PINS ASEC PREL BA
SUBJECT: BAHRAINI SHIA INITIALLY COOL ON MUQTADA AL-SADR

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 000498

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP
CAIRO FOR STEVE BONDY
LONDON FOR ETHAN GOLDRICH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2029
TAGS: PINS ASEC PREL BA
SUBJECT: BAHRAINI SHIA INITIALLY COOL ON MUQTADA AL-SADR

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Even if Coalition operations to arrest Muqtada
Al-Sadr result in his death, Bahraini Shia are unlikely to
react violently. On April 7 POL Section polled a wide
spectrum of Shia contacts regarding the spike in violence in
Iraq. The majority of our Shia contacts doubted that the
apprehension of Al-Sadr would have an impact on Bahraini
Shia. Former exilee and Al-Wifaq member Nizar Al Qari told
PolOff on April 7 that Bahraini Shi'a look for guidance from
religious leaders like Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani
and Lebanon's Fadlallah. Al-Sadr is from an entirely
different school of thought and often in disagreement with
Al-Sistani. It is unlikely that either Al-Sistani or
Fadhlallah would call Shia in the region to revenge Al-Sadr's
death, he said.


2. (C) In addition, Al Qari mentioned to PolOff on April 7
that Shaikh Ali Salman President of the largest Shia
political society Al Wifaq, traveled to Najav to visit with
Ayatollah Al-Sistani and to stay with his close friend, IGC
member and member of the Islamic Da'wa party Ibrahim
Al-Ja'fari. Upon his return Shaikh Ali Salman informed his
members that the Shi'a would not interfere with developments
in Iraq.


3. (C) Some Shi'a contacts consider Al-Sadr too young to
deserve a Bahraini reaction. Youth Forum member Jaafer Hamza
told PolFSN on April 7 that Al-Sadr is a stupid political
teenager. Hamza was not surprised that Al-Sadr ordered
Al-Khui's murder and those who understand Iraq know that
"Al-Sadr is digging his own grave." Most other Shia contacts,
however, suspect that the evidence against Al-Sadr in the
murder of Al-Khui is a USG fabrication in its ploy to occupy
Iraq beyond June 30.


4. (C) Comment: It would help our own work trying to keep
Bahrain's Shia majority on board with our policies in Iraq if
some details of the investigation into Sadr's involvement in
Ayatollah al-Khui's death could be released. Information
about the arrest warrant and accusations won't help us much.
We could better use background details about how the
information which led to the arrest warrant was developed.
FORD