SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RUMSFELD'S VISIT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001524

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PTER ECON OVIP BA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RUMSFELD'S VISIT TO
BAHRAIN OCTOBER 9-10

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Mr. Secretary, we warmly welcome you to Bahrain.
While the genesis of your trip is meeting with Operation
Iraqi Freedom coalition Ministers of Defense on the aircraft
carrier John F. Kennedy, your visit comes at an important
time in our bilateral relationship with Bahrain. The mil-mil
relationship spanning some 50 years experienced a rare hiccup
last summer when the U.S. grew concerned about Bahraini
resolve in pursuing a small group of dangerous terrorist
suspects. Bahrainis were shocked by the departure of Navy
dependents, issuance of a U.S. travel warning, and the
threatened closure of the DOD Bahrain School, to which many
senior Bahraini officials send their children and which
counts Crown Prince Salman among its alumni.


2. (S) Several positive developments have occurred since
then. The Bahrainis rearrested the six and continue to
detain the four most dangerous of them. The State Department
lifted the travel warning and DOD agreed to continue
operating the Bahrain School, enabling it to open on time for
the school year. The United States and Bahrain also signed a
free trade agreement (FTA),the first with a Gulf state and
only the third in the Arab world.

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Deep U.S. Concern About Prosecuting Extremists
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3. (S) There are, nonetheless, lingering concerns on both
sides. We remain concerned about the status of the case
against the four remaining detainees and we continue to urge
the GOB to conduct a robust investigation and prosecution,
which would send the right message on the GOB's commitment to
combating terrorism. Bahrain is proud to host NAVCENT
Headquarters, and is apprehensive that the continued
departure of Navy dependents as well as regional and global
force posture reviews may portend further changes in the
Navy's profile in Bahrain.


4. (S) While Bahrain's people have not been immune to the
waves of anti-Americanism present in the region - daily
pictures in newspapers and on television have had an impact -
the leadership has remained steadfast in its support for the
United States and for its bilateral relationship with the
USG. It has openly championed the FTA as the key to its
economic future and continues to embrace the Navy as the key
to its present and future security.

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Objectives
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5. (S) What we want from the visit:

-- Renewed commitment from the GOB, preferably directly from
the King, that Bahrain will conduct a thorough investigation
and prosecution of the four terrorism suspects and send the
right message on counter-terrorism.

-- An indication of Bahrain's long range thinking on the U.S.
Navy presence in country.

-- Continued Bahrain support, both politically and in
practical terms, for our efforts in Iraq and Operation
Enduring Freedom maritime operations.

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Issues of Interest to Bahrain
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6. (S) The Bahrainis will want to hear from you on:

-- A reaffirmation of the Navy's long-term commitment to
Bahrain.

-- The path forward on Iraq.

-- Shaken by the events of last summer, Bahrain will welcome
positive statements on its support for OIF and OEF.

-- Anything you can say about a return, even partial, of Navy
dependents and your thoughts on the future of the Bahrain
School.

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Key Issues to Raise
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7. (S) We suggest you raise the following key points:

-- Express appreciation for Bahrain's hospitality in serving
as the venue for this event involving Ministers of Defense
from the coalition in Iraq.

-- Recognize the long history of mil-mil cooperation with
Bahrain, most notably through hosting NAVCENT.

-- Praise Bahrain's support for OEF, OIF, and U.S. policy in
Iraq, including training for Iraqi financial specialists and
firefighters.

-- Commend the King's steps on political and economic reform
and his active participation in the G8 Broader Middle East
and North Africa reform initiative. Note our concern that
Bahrain keep to this path of reform.

-- Reaffirm the commitment of the U.S. Navy in Bahrain.

-- Stress our concern on counter-terrorism, noting that
everything we want to do in Bahrain, from military
cooperation to FTA, depends on close cooperation in this
area. Successful prosecution of the remaining four detainees
will improve the security situation on the ground and send
the right signal to Al Qaida and the world that Bahrain will
not tolerate any connection to terrorism on its soil.


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Issues Background
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Iraq
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8. (S) Bahrain supports our goals and role in Iraq. They
recognize the critical nature of stabilizing the security
situation, holding elections and establishing a government
that represents all of Iraq's communities, and preventing
neighboring countries from meddling in Iraq's domestic
situation. King Hamad told General Abizaid on September 27
that U.S. forces should plan to depart Iraq as soon as
possible following the elections so that Iraq could develop
its own leaders and not rely upon the United States to deal
with its problems. In contrast, Crown Prince Salman and
Defense Minister Al Khalifa asserted that the U.S. should
remain in Iraq until the Iraqis are in a position to provide
security themselves. All agreed that elections should be
held without delay and identified Iran as the greatest
long-term threat to Iraq's future.


9. (S) In addition to hosting NAVCENT, Bahrain deployed 35
tanks and 1,500 troops to Kuwait during OIF and flew air
patrols over Kuwait and Bahrain. They also deployed their
frigate the Al Sabha during both OIF and OEF. They are
considering deploying patrol boats to the northern Arabian
Gulf should they receive a formal request from the Interim
Iraqi Government.

Foreign Military Financing
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10. (S) Bahrain received $24.85 million in FMF grants from
the FY04 Department of State budget. This brings the FMF
total over the past three fiscal years to $145 million,
including funding from the FY02 and FY03 supplementals. The
Bahrainis have used these funds to purchase a TPS 59 radar
(due to arrive late 2006),an infrared countermeasures suite
for the King's new 747-400 (due in 12 months),the
refurbishment of 14 Cobra helicopters, and multiple spare
cases for all services. Due to the military's aging
equipment and growing maintenance costs, the Bahrain Defense
Force sees FMF as an important means to bridge their budget
deficits and to sustain readiness.

Security
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11. (S) All of Bahrain's leaders are adamantly determined to
maintain security for Americans here. Whenever we make
requests for extra security, the police respond immediately
and appropriately. The GOB continues to hold the four most
dangerous of the six terrorism suspects, and we are urging
the government to conduct a robust investigation and
prosecution. The Crown Prince has mentioned a number of
times that the Minister of Interior, who was appointed during
the spring, "gets" our concerns, but that capacity building
at the Bahrain National Security Agency (BNSA) and Attorney
General's office requires additional work. The GOB has
committed to working with the USG to establish a
Counter-Terrorism Operations Center and a Counter-Terrorism
Intelligence Center, though establishment of the latter is
pending management changes at BNSA. Parliament will open its
next session on October 9, the day of your visit, and it is
expected to consider a draft counter-terrorism law during the
2004-05 session. The new law would apply stiff penalties for
conspiracy to commit terrorist acts.

Democratic Reform
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12. (S) The 2002 constitution established an elected lower
house of parliament, the Council of Representatives, while
the upper house, the Consultative Council, is appointed by
the King. Due to the breakdown of the process of advancing
legislation during the 2003-04 legislative session and calls
for amendments to the constitution, the government and four
opposition societies are engaged in a "constitutional
dialogue" to resolve their differences.

13. (S) In late September, the GOB arrested human rights
activist Abdul Hadi Al Khawaja following his comments at a
forum on poverty in which he reportedly accused the Prime
Minister of mismanaging the economy during his 30-plus years
in office. Days later, the government closed the Bahrain
Center for Human Rights, which organized the forum, accusing
it of political activities that contravened the Societies Law
and the Center's own charter. We have expressed our concern
with this apparent step backward in the GOB's reform process.

Economy
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14. (S) The United States and Bahrain signed a free trade
agreement on September 14, marking a new level of commitment
in our bilateral economic relationship. Bahrain is the first
country in the Gulf region to have an FTA with us, and joins
Jordan and Morocco as the only Arab states with FTAs. We
hope to use the Bahrain FTA as a springboard to promote
economic reform, openness, and transparency in the region,
and as an important step in realizing the President's vision
of a Middle East Free Trade Area by 2013. Bahrain will cite
the FTA as the United States' endorsement of its economy and
to market Bahrain as a regional center for finance,
insurance, banking, business services, education, and health
care.

Middle East Peace
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15. (S) The Bahraini government is deeply troubled by the
continuing violence in Israel and the Palestinian
territories. Though far from the conflict, Bahrainis
identify with the Palestinians. The Crown Prince has told us
that he would like to work with the Israeli government, in
particular in fending off threats from Iran, but he cannot do
so in the absence of some sort of settlement between Israel
and the Palestinians. The Crown Prince appreciates that the
President has gone far to promote the establishment of a
viable, independent Palestinian state, but he has asked that
the Administration make a gesture to relieve the suffering of
the Palestinian people. Flare-ups in violence in the
territories inevitably transfer directly into heightened
emotions among average Bahrainis.

ZIADEH