SPANISH ELECTIONS: MARCH 11 ATTACKS/ALLEGED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000880

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2014
TAGS: PTER PGOV SP PSOE
SUBJECT: SPANISH ELECTIONS: MARCH 11 ATTACKS/ALLEGED
AL-QAEDA LINK KEY TO POPULAR PARTY DEFEAT

Classified By: A/DCM Carol Urban per 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary


1. (C) The Socialist Party, turning the tables on all
pre-March 11 polls, soundly defeated the Popular Party in
March 14 national elections. Reaction to the March 11
terror attacks proved to be the decisive factor. Massive
but solemn anti-terror marches March 12 saw 11 million
Spaniards take to the streets. These were followed March 13
by angry protests against the PP following arrests of
suspects possibly linked to al Qaeda, reigniting large-scale
opposition to GOS support for the Iraq war. Protesters also
accused the government of covering up information and of
misleadingly attributing the attack to ETA in order to avoid
electoral fallout. Further revelations reinforcing the
al-Qaeda link early March 14 opened an election day marked by
a massive voter turnout, including previously undecided
voters and younger, first time voters. Socialist leader
Zapatero's total of 164 seats puts him only 12 seats away
from an absolute majority, a stronger position than anyone,
even the Socialists themselves, could have imagined a week
ago. Zapatero stated March 15 that he would not seek a
formal coalition with other parties, but would form a
minority government, working out agreements on legislation
with other parties on a case by case basis. End Summary.

The Results


2. (U) The Socialists (PSOE) received 164 seats in the
Congress of Deputies, a gain of 39 seats from 2000. The
Popular Party, meanwhile, lost 35 seats, dropping from an
absolute majority of 183 down to 148. Voter turnout was
77%, an 8.5% increase over 2000. Seat totals follow:

Socialist Party - 164
Popular Party - 148
Catalan Nationalist (CiU) - 10
Catalan Left Nationalist (ERC) - 8
Basque Nationalist (PNV) - 7
United Left (IU) - 5
Others - 8


3. (U) The Socialists scored major gains in Andalusia,
Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia. PP results were
down from 2000 almost nationwide. In Andalusian regional
elections, the Socialists surged to regain an absolute
majority in a region they have controlled for the past 22
years. The Popular Party retained control of the Senate,
with 102 seats to 92 for the Socialists. However, the
Senate is the far weaker house of Parliament, and plays no
role in formation of the government.

March 11 Terror Attacks Decisive


4. (SBU) No poll conducted before March 8 (the last legal
date for publishing of new polls) came close to predicting
the 164-seat total for the Socialists. The absolute maximum
range in the most optimistic poll gave the PSOE 144 seats.
In contrast, a CIS poll, believed to be the most accurate and
indicative, gave the PP an absolute majority of 177 seats.


5. (C) The March 11 terror attacks changed all calculations,
especially as possible links to al Qaeda surfaced. Most
significant were the arrests in Madrid of five suspects on
March 13, several allegedly linked to Al Qaeda, and the
release of a video tape reputed to be from al Qaeda claiming
responsibility and promising more attacks if Spain continues
to participate in the coalition in Iraq. Media and the
Socialists claimed that the GOS was withholding information
that might implicate al Qaeda in the attacks for fear of
electoral consequences. They also accused the GOS of
falsely attributing the attacks to ETA.

Vote of Fear, and to Punish the PP


6. (C) The massive mobilization of the population in
nationwide anti-terrorism marches March 12, when over 11
million Spaniards took to the streets, presaged a near record
election day turnout March 14. This large voter turnout
clearly favored the Socialists. Evidence of possible al
Qaeda links to the March 11 attacks reignited massive popular
opposition to the Iraq war. Aznar and PP candidate Rajoy
were blamed for having implicated Spain in what the
Socialists have continually termed an illegal and immoral
conflict. This, to many, had made Spain a target.
Zapatero's relentless anti-war and anti-President Bush
rhetoric, and his pledge to get Spanish troops out of Iraq by
June 30 if the mission is not turned over to the UN by that
date, resonated.


7. (C) The accusation of "lies" also surfaced strongly,
particularly in the pro-PSOE Prisa media group, which
includes El Pais. A typical line was: the Aznar government
lied about WMD in getting Spain involved in an illegal war,
now it is lying about al Qaeda links to March 11. This line
echoed Zapatero's plea to voters to use their vote to punish
the PP for implicating Spain in the war. As former
Socialist President Felipe Gonzalez said: a vote for the PP
is a vote for the war in Iraq.

A Minority Government, Without Formal Coalition Partners


8. (C) Zapatero's 164 seats puts him only 12 seats from an
absolute majority, more seats than even the most optimistic
pre-March 11 prediction of his own party. Zapatero said on
March 15 that he intended not to seek a formal coalition with
other parties but to run a minority Socialist government and
to work agreements on specific legislation on a case by case
basis. On election night, the moderate Catalan nationalist
CiU party had already indicated it would like to enter into
negotiations for a pact with the PSOE. A pact with the PSOE
for a "Government of the Left" was a central element in the
campaign of the IU (left/communists). The radical Catalan
republican nationalist ERC have indicated they could also
support the PSOE, as they do in Catalonia. Other
nationalists, such as the moderate Basque nationalist PNV may
abstain or, possibly, even vote in favor of PSOE.
Zapatero's investiture thus appears assured. Since
Zapatero's government will not have an absolute majority, he
will be invested on a second round with a simple majority.
Zapatero should be in office by late April.

(U) Other Election Results:

ERC - Catalan Left Nationalists: jumped from one to eight
seats. This is despite (or because of) fact that ERC
leader Carod Rovira caused a furor by meeting with ETA
leaders in France in January.

CIU - Moderate Catalan nationalists: Dropped from 15 to 10
seats. (ERC believed to have picked these seats up.)

IU - Communist/Left: Dropped from 9 seats to 5. The
Socialists had appealed to IU voters to vote PSOE so their
vote would count more. This appeal to a "useful vote"
worked. IU had 21 seats in 1996, so the decline is steep.

PNV - Moderate Basque Nationalists: Held to their 7 seats.
PNV leader Imaz has signaled he would like to dialogue with
Zapatero to improve the climate in relations between Madrid
and the PNV.

(Septel looks at the PSOE foreign policy agenda.)


ARGYROS