SPANISH EU ELECTIONS: SOUR VICTORY, SWEET DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRID 002210

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV SP PSOE
SUBJECT: SPANISH EU ELECTIONS: SOUR VICTORY, SWEET DEFEAT

Classified By: Kathleen Fitzpatrick, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) The Socialist Party (PSOE) won Spain's EU
Parliamentary elections on June 13, but by a smaller margin
than expected, 43% to 41%. The two-point difference offers
something positive to both major parties, though the Popular
Party probably comes away with the moral victory. The
Socialists will have 25 seats and the Popular Party 23.
Minor parties will have a total of 6 seats.


2. (SBU) The Socialists will use even this narrow win to
reaffirm their victory in the March 14 general elections and
to try to demonstrate that their capture of the government
was not just a result of the March 11 terrorist attacks in
Madrid. Socialists also see a positive sign in that they won
despite a record low voter turnout (which at 46% was the
lowest voter participation in any election since the
restoration of democracy in Spain in 1977, hindered yesterday
as elections took place on a glorious Spring day and just
after Spain's victory over Russia in the Euro Cup soccer game
the night before) and marked the first time the Socialists
have won an election that had less than 55% participation.
Though not the ringing endorsement the PSOE had hoped for a
few weeks ago, they definitely welcome the win.


3. (SBU) The Popular Party sees the close loss as a sign that
their party is on the way back and that they have weathered
the fallout from the Aznar government's support for the Iraq
war. Polls released before the election had forecast the
Socialists winning by 6 to 9 percent, building upon the
PSOE's 5-point win in the general elections. The Popular
Party succeeded in reversing the trend and shaved the
Socialist margin by more than half. The hope among the
Popular Party is that this is proof that the Iraq issue is on
its last legs, and that once the political focus returns to
issues such as the economy, terrorism and the growing
nationalist movements, the Popular Party is well poised to
regain power.


4. (C) Comment: With this election behind them, the ruling
Socialists have the opportunity to get out of campaign mode,
which was heavy on anti-U.S. policy rhetoric. Since coming
into power, the Socialists have been trying to contrast
themselves from what they describe as the overly pro-U.S.
policies of the Aznar government. This anti-U.S. bent even
affected such issues as Spain's representation at the funeral
services for President Reagan. A contact at MFA told us that
the government had to send the President of the Senate,
Javier Rojo, "kicking and screaming" as Spain's
representative because none of the higher-ranking Socialist
officials in the Zapatero government wanted to attend.
MANZANARES