SPANISH EU ELECTIONS - LOOKING FOR AFFIRMATION OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002144

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL SP EUN PSOE
SUBJECT: SPANISH EU ELECTIONS - LOOKING FOR AFFIRMATION OR
REDEMPTION


Classified By: Kathleen Fitzpatrick, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The Spanish political scene is now focused on the June
13 European Parliamentary elections. Because of EU
enlargement, Spain will elect 54 members, down from the 64
seats it received in 1999. With the EU elections coming only
three months after the surprising March general elections,
the two main parties have been in almost continuous campaign
mode this year. The Socialist Party (PSOE) is looking for a
win that will reaffirm its March 14 showing and, in their
opinion, demonstrate that its victory was not just a reaction
to the March 11 terrorist attacks. The Popular Party (PP) is
striving to redeem itself, reinvigorate its base and position
the party for a return to power.


2. (C) Spain's two largest parties hold 51 of its 64 current
European Parliamentary seats, the PP having won 27 seats in
1999 and the PSOE capturing 24. The United Left (Communist)
won 4 seats, with regional and nationalist parties taking the
remaining 9. One seat was held by the Basque nationalist
party, Euskal Herritarak, which was later declared illegal
for its ties to the terrorist group ETA. Another Basque
party, Herritarren Zerrenda, was barred from running in this
year's EU election by the Spanish Supreme Court, which ruled
that it was the successor to Euskal Herritarak and also
linked to ETA and the banned political party, Batasuna.

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The Main Candidates
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3. (U) Leading the list of PSOE candidates is Josep Borrell.
Borrell, 57, served as the Minister of Public Works and
Transportation in the last Socialist government from 1991 to

1996. He was in the running to be the PSOE's candidate for
President of the Government in 1998-99, until he voluntarily
withdrew from consideration after two of his associates were
implicated in a financial corruption controversy.


4. (U) The PP's list is headed by Jaime Mayor Oreja, a
53-year old agricultural engineer with a long history of
involvement in Basque region politics and who is well known
throughout Spain. Mayor Oreja served as the Interior
Minister during much of the Aznar administration. He has
been a candidate for president (lehendakari) of the Basque
autonomous region on three occasions. Polls show that while
Mayor Oreja enjoys greater name recognition than Borrell,
Borrell has greater support among Spanish voters.

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PSOE Themes - Return to Europe; Anti-Iraq and Bush
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The Socialists have framed their campaign around the
idea of returning Spain back to a European focus, rather than
what they criticize as the overly pro-American policies of
the Aznar administration. Their campaign theme, "We Return
to Europe", fits with President Zapatero's repeated
statements that Spain had become too aligned with the United
States, and that while not anti-American, the Socialists
intend to return Spain to the core of Europe and the
"Europeanist" movement.


6. (C) Borrell and other PSOE leaders tout two main policy
changes as proof of the Socialist government's pro-European
focus: the return of Spanish troops from Iraq and the new
Spanish commitment to support the proposed EU Constitution,
including acceptance of the double-majority voting system
(though they continue to negotiate the percentages the system
will use).


7. (C) Though members of the Socialist government frequently
state that this new European focus is not anti-American, and
that they intend to maintain a strong trans-Atlantic
relationship, the PSOE campaign continues to demonize U.S.
policies in Iraq and the PP for the Aznar government's
support of American objectives. Borrell has stated that
terrorism and problems in the Middle East are linked to Bush
administration policies and to the U.S.'s "unequivocal
support" of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon. Alvaro Cuesta, a
PSOE party secretary, accused the PP under Aznar of
"receiving instructions from Washington" to disseminate "Bush
administration propaganda", and that the PP is an affiliate
of the U.S. Republican Party. Cuesta stated that the PSOE
will push for a Europe less dependent on the United States,
and Borrell has said that he desires a European Union that is
capable of intervening in global problems and can act as a
counterweight to U.S. power. Borrell has specifically
criticized the PP for aligning itself with the "least
Europeanist" EU members and for only viewing the EU as a
common market.


8. (C) Zapatero, however, has been able to take a more
"statesmanlike" line, allowing Borrell and others to deliver
the punches.

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PP - Strong in Europe
--------------


9. (C) The Popular Party counters with allegations that the
Socialists have surrendered Spain's bargaining chips in its
headlong rush to prove its Europeanist credentials
(especially in what the PP views as a precipitous statement
that Spain would approve the EU Constitution) and that the
PSOE will not defend Spanish national interests. The PP
chose "With You, Strong in Europe" as its election theme,
proposing that they are the party who will protect Spanish
national interests inside the EU and will forceful combat
terrorism.


10. (C) Mayor Oreja has criticized the PSOE for trying to
convert the EU elections into a "referendum on Iraq" and that
Borrell was trying to "make Baghdad the capital of Europe".
The PP campaign stresses that they are looking to protect
Spanish influence and voting power in the EU and to press for
strong common policies to fight terrorism. They dispute the
PSOE's claim that they are "euroskeptics", stating that they
have enhanced Spain's stature and influence in the EU, and
frame the PSOE as making Spain subservient to France and
Germany.


11. (C) The PP also criticizes the PSOE government for bowing
to the nationalist parties in Spain, as they claim is evident
in the Zapatero government's proposal in May to have Spanish
minority languages (Euskera, Catalan and Gallego) included as
official languages of the EU. They claim that a PSOE win on
June 13 will only strengthen the nationalist movements.


12. (C) After the demoralizing surprise defeat in March,
Mayor Oreja has said that the PP needs a good showing in the
EU elections to "avoid the isolation of the Popular Party",
to "bring back hope to 9 million plus voters" and to avoid a
long cycle of Socialist rule. He has also noted in several
speeches the fact that Borrell had to leave politics in 1999
because of his links to corruption.

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The Polls
--------------


13. (U) Surveys forecast the Socialists winning by 6 to 9
percentage points, which would give them 25-27 seats,
compared to 21-22 for the Popular Party. The leading
newspaper, El Pais, found 43% of poll respondents favoring
the PSOE versus 37% for the PP. The Center for Sociological
Studies (CIS) projects the PSOE winning with a 46% to 37%
margin. Of interest in the surveys, 70% of respondents said
that the Zapatero government's withdrawal of troops from Iraq
would influence their vote, with 86% of those influenced
saying they would vote for the PSOE. Only 6% of those
influenced said that the troop withdrawal would lead them to
vote for the PP. Also, though split when asked who had
traditionally defended Spanish interests in the EU (PSOE-
32%, PP- 31%),when asked who would defend Spanish interests
best in the future, respondents chose the PSOE by a margin of
41% to 15%. On overall foreign policy, 72% stated that they
thought this government's policy would be better than the
Aznar administration's.
ARGYROS