Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LJUBLJANA85
2004-01-13 10:00:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ljubljana
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GEN JAMES L. JONES, SACEUR

Tags:  MARR PREL PGOV PINR SI NATO 
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UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000085 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV PINR SI NATO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GEN JAMES L. JONES, SACEUR

REF: CDR USEUCOM ALT SHAPE BE 131000Z JAN 04

UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000085

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV PINR SI NATO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GEN JAMES L. JONES, SACEUR

REF: CDR USEUCOM ALT SHAPE BE 131000Z JAN 04


1. (SBU) While you will be wearing your NATO hat during your
11-12 February visit to Slovenia, you may wish to emphasize
the following shared U.S. and NATO priorities during your
discussions with Slovenian officials:

-- Slovenia's bilateral and NATO commitment to bring defense
spending to 2% of GDP by 2008;

-- increased Slovenian contributions to Operation Enduring
Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom;

-- Slovenian efforts to share the country's successful
transition experience with others in the region;

-- staying the course on military reform and
professionalization.

--------------
Political Environment
--------------


2. (SBU) Your visit will include a meeting with President
Janez Drnovsek, among Slovenia's most powerful politicians
for the last fifteen years. Drnovsek hand picked Anton
"Tone" Rop to succeed him as Prime Minister when Drnovsek won
the Presidency in December 2002. Since becoming Prime
Minister, Rop's relationship with Drnovsek has deteriorated
some as Rop increasingly governed according to his (vice
Drnovsek's) desires. With the lessening of Drnovsek's direct
support, Rop faced challenges from contemporaries within
their party (LDS),from contenders in other governing
coalition parties (including ZLSD's Borut Pahor),and from
the opposition. This, combined with his inexperience in
foreign affairs, restricted his ability to be helpful on
domestically unpopular issues such as Iraq and the ICC.
Although Rop has successfully consolidated his control of the
LDS, it is not clear whether he or the governing coalition
will survive the Fall 2004 parliamentary elections. However,
it is unlikely that Slovenia's foreign policy will change
dramatically no matter who wins.

--------------
Defense Spending
--------------


3. (SBU) PM Rop has committed to honor Drnovsek's May 2002
pledge to President Bush to increase Slovenian defense
spending to 2% of GDP by 2008. This pledge also was made
directly to NATO in Slovenia's Timetable for Completion of
Reforms. However, an EU-mandated change to GDP calculation

methodology caused Slovenia to miss its 2003 interim defense
spending target. The 2003 shortfall can be excused as an
unexpected accounting change. However, a GoS failure to
adjust defense spending levels to the new GDP methodology in
the 2004 and draft 2005 budgets has Slovenia likely to miss
its 2004 and 2005 targets as well. We are concerned that
continued shortfalls will make it extremely difficult for
Slovenia to honor its promise to NATO and to President Bush.
We are also concerned that the combination of
professionalization costs and lower spending levels could
affect Slovenia's ability to meet its force goals.

--------------
OIF/OEF
--------------


4. (SBU) Slovenia was voiciferously not a part of the Iraq
Coalition due to profound public opposition to the war, but
granted humanitarian overflights and sent a liaison officer
to CENTCOM. Once fighting subsided, the GoS offered
humanitarian assistance to children through UNICEF and the
Human Security Network, and demining assistance through its
International Trust Fund. Under the political cover provided
by UNSCR 1483, the GoS approved broad overflights/transit on
11 June. At the Madrid conference, Slovenia donated an
additional US$440,000 in police training and other
reconstruction assistance. Many Slovenian companies who
worked in Iraq in the Yugoslav era hope to recoup old debts
and to win reconstruction contracts. Following passage of
UNSCR 1511, we have been encouraging the GoS to offer

additional support for security and stability in Iraq.


5. (SBU) The GoS originally committed to deploy a 17-person
special forces unit to ISAF IV in Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, this was delayed because a civil service
employees union's legal challenge to standard security
questionnaires caused the Constitutional Court to freeze all
NATO security clearance processing. The GoS proactively
resolved this problem by amending the law on classified
information to address the union's court complaint and the
unit had been scheduled to begin deployment on 09 February.
However, the GoS is now delaying deployment until March, in
response to an explicit request from Kabul. We continue to
encourage the Government to consider additional OEF
contributions.

--------------
Regional Stability
--------------


6. (SBU) For most of the past decade, NATO and EU membership
have been Slovenia's priority foreign policy goals. Once
membership in both organizations was assured, the political
elites searched for their new purpose. There appears to be a
growing consensus that the new priority is to help guide the
rest of Southeast Europe along that same path, as quickly as
possible. This reflects both political and economic national
interest -- Southeast Europe is Slovenia's
second-most-important market, supplementing EU-generated
income and balancing Slovenia's dependence on the health of
the western European economy. Slovenia therefore has the
potential to be one of our most capable, motivated, and
reliable allies in bringing peace, stability, and prosperity
to the troubled Balkans region.


7. (SBU) The GoS strongly supports eventual NATO and EU
membership for Croatia and the other former Yugoslav
republics and seeks to be NATO and the EU's in-house Balkans
expert. Slovenia is the region's largest foreign investor,
and plays a leading role in Balkan demining efforts,
humanitarian assistance, and peacekeeping operations.
Slovenia also promotes regional law enforcement cooperation
on combating cross-border criminal activities and provides a
wealth of technical assistance on economic, political, and
judicial reforms.


8. (SBU) Slovenia joined the OSCE Troika on 01 January and
will be Chairman in Office for 2005. In this role, the GoS
plans to focus on promoting political and economic reforms in
Southeast Europe, the Causasus, and Central Asia, building on
Slovenia's own successful transition experience.

--------------
Military Reform/Professionalization
--------------


9. (SBU) Slovenia will bring valued assets to the Alliance,
by exporting peace and stability in this troubled region, by
achieving its force proposals/goals, and by further
developing its declared niche capabilities (mountain
training, explosive ordinance disposal, military police and
peacekeeping units, and military field medicine). Under
Defense Minister Grizold's capable leadership, Slovenian
military reforms are proceeding well, but full implementation
will require continued and determined effort and increasing
defense resources. Key MAP goals are: operationalizing the
10th Motorized Battallion, developing an NBC battalion,
logistics support for deployable forces, NCO corps
development, and personnel management reform. The GoS will
fully professionalize its active duty military by the end of
2004 and the reserves by 2010.


10. (SBU) In a 23 March 2003 referendum, 66% of the
Slovenian electorate voted to join NATO after an intense GoS
public information campaign. However, it is not clear
whether the Government has a long term strategy to maintain
this level of public support. Professionalization of the
military and the recent end to conscription have enjoyed wide
popularity.

--------------
Other Issues

--------------


11. (SBU) Croatia: Slovenia's relations with Croatia
resemble those of siblings -- basically good, with many minor
irritants. Last August, Croatia unilaterally declared its
intention to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off
its Adriatic Coast, which would directly affect Slovenian
fishing and shipping. The surprise decision resulted in a
flurry of stiffly worded diplomatic notes, the Slovenian
Ambassador to Croatia returning briefly to Ljubljana for
"consultations," and the reappearance of resentments over
Croatia's failure to sign and ratify the bilateral maritime
border demarcation agreement. Slovenia has been pursuing
resolution of the matter calmly, via EU and bilateral
diplomatic channels. Both the GoS and the GoC appear
interested in taking the opportunity provided by the Croatian
change in leadership to approach these issues from a fresh
perspective. We are studiously avoiding being drawn into the
discussions or commenting publicly on the issue.


12. (SBU) ICC/Article 98 Agreements: A founding ICC member,
Slovenia believes strongly in the Court and would like to
bring the U.S. onboard. The GoS understands the practical
need to resolve the Art. 98 issue, but is unlikely to sign an
agreement unless a prominent EU member does so first. With
the majority of the electorate forcefully opposed to Art. 98
Agreements, ratification would be extremely difficult,
particularly as the 2004 elections draw closer. The recent
Presidential ASPA waiver decision received moderate but
positive press coverage.


13. (SBU) Terrorism: One of the first countries to join the
Global Coalition against Terrorism, Slovenia has supported it
through humanitarian, demining, military, and police training
assistance to Afghanistan. Slovenia has ratified 11 of 12
anti-terrorism conventions, with ratification of the last
awaiting passage of technical amendments to the Criminal Code
which are currently before parliament. Slovenia has an
excellent international reputation in combating terrorist
financing and money laundering, is highly supportive of U.S.
efforts in this regard, and is actively mentoring Ukraine,
Russia, and the former Yugoslav republics.


14. (SBU) EU: For the average Slovene, national economic
interests take priority over all other policy issues, and
those interests lie in Europe. Slovenia's top four trading
partners are Germany, Italy, Croatia, and France. Total
trade with the EU is estimated at nearly US$6.1 billion, or
59% of all exports. (Only 3% of exports go to the U.S.) EU
membership was supported by 91% of the electorate in the 23
March referendum and enjoys the backing of virtually every
political party. Janez Potocnik, the Minister for European
Affairs, the lead EU negotiator, and the nominee to be
Slovenia's first Commissioner, is one of the most popular and
widely-trusted politicians in the country. Prior to the
Copenhagen Summit, Slovenia sensibly toed the EU policy line
on almost all issues of importance, voicing dissent only in
cases where there were clear differences of opinion within
the EU and where there was safety in numbers (Bilateral
Investment Treaties, for example). Fiercely independent by
nature, we expect the Slovenes to gradually
become less reluctant to push opposing points of view as
their participation in EU decision-making processes expands.
While generally supportive of ESDP, Slovenia opposes any
duplication of NATO structures.


15. (SBU) Export Controls: The GoS continues to address
dual use export control licensing weaknesses and is
conducting industry outreach and training, with USG support.
However, it is not clear whether the new interministerial
body tasked with overseeing dual use export policy is
achieving all the practical results its well-intentioned
chair, SOVA Director Iztok Podbregar, would like to see.


16. (SBU) Privatization/FDI: The GoS has been reluctant to
privatize a number of key industries including
telecommunications, insurance, and banking. The state exerts
significant influence over these sectors either as a direct
owner or as a majority shareholder through a combination of
state-owned funds. Although its figures improved
substantially last year as a result of Swiss-owned Novartis'
acquisition of Lek Pharmaceuticals for nearly US$900 million,

Slovenia's cumulative FDI, at nearly US$3.2 billion, is one
of the lowest of all acceding countries.


17. (SBU) Transparency/red tape: Transparency International
ranked Slovenia 29th in its 2003 corruption perception index.
Generally, the executive, legislative, and judicial
branches follow budget law procedures and the system is
fairly efficient and transparent. However, there is a lack
of consistency in public tenders and in the privatization
process. In some cases tenders have been cancelled or
privatization commissions have rejected all bids without
providing clear explanations. Byzantine permitting processes
complicate business start-up/expansion and offer multiple
opportunities for interference by state monopolies and other
competitors. Overall, Slovenia enjoys a high level of fiscal
transparency and accountability.


18. (SBU) Trafficking in Persons: A Tier II country,
Slovenia needs to pass a law specifically criminalizing
trafficking, establish victim/witness protection, improve
victims' assistance (including setting up sufficient
shelters),and collect better statistics on the problem.

--------------
General Background
--------------


19. (SBU) Slovenia has a well-functioning multi-party
democracy, an independent judiciary, a free press, an
excellent human rights record and solid civilian control of
the military. The country has an impressive record of
sustained, broad-based economic growth and its citizens enjoy
a relatively high standard of living (per capita GDP is
around US$10,000). We share strong, cooperative relations on
a broad range of issues and have worked together closely to
promote stability and political and economic reform in the
Balkans. However, there has been overwhelming public
opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq and the ICC. Slovenia has
contributed personnel to IFOR, SFOR, KFOR and various UN
missions in the Balkans and elsewhere, and provided crucial
overflight clearances for NATO's KOSOVO campaign. As a UN
Security Council member in 1998-9, Slovenia supported U.S.
positions on tough issues, such as Iraq sanctions.


20. (SBU) President Bush met with then-PM Drnovsek in
Washington on May 17, 2002 and in Ljubljana during his June
2001 summit with Russian President Putin. President Clinton
visited Ljubljana in June 1999. National Assembly President
Borut Pahor's 09-11 June trip to Washington was the first
time he had traveled outside of Europe. SecDef Rumsfeld
visited Slovenia immediately after the November 2002 Prague
NATO Summit; in early December, Congressman Bereuter came
here in his capacity as Chair of the NATO Parliamentary
Assembly; and, two bilateral Congressional delegations (Holt
and Hastert) have traveled to Ljubljana in the past year. PM
Rop wishes to visit Washington as soon as possible.


21. (SBU) On December 23, 1990 an overwhelming majority of
the Slovenian electorate voted in a plebiscite to separate
from greater Yugoslavia; independence was officially declared
on June 25, 1991. The U.S. formally recognized Slovenia as
an independent state on April 7, 1992 and opened an embassy
in Ljubljana in August of that year. Slovenia became a
member of the UN in May 1992 and of the Council of Europe in
May 1993. Slovenia is scheduled to join the EU and NATO in
May and June 2004, respectively, and will assume the OSCE
Chairmanship in Office in 2005. Slovenia is a member of all
major financial institutions, as well as 40 other
international organizations including the World Trade
Organization.


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