RUPEL WALKING ON THIN ICE

UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000333

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SI
SUBJECT: RUPEL WALKING ON THIN ICE

REF: (A) LJUBLJANA 0292 AND PREVIOUS, (B) LJUBLJANA

0212 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: FM Rupel sent a public letter to
National Assembly members on 13 April openly opposing
the nomination of State Prosecutor General Zdenka Cerar
to replace Ivan Bizjak as Justice Minister. The letter
also pointedly criticizes the governing coalition for
abusing its strong parliamentary position at the
expense of political consensus on issues of national
interest. Media spin in English-language press outlets
focused on Cerar's statements implying that the letter
was nothing more than Rupel taking revenge on her for
the diplomatic academy case (ref B). Slovenian-
language commentary appears more broadly focused on
trashing Rupel's reputation and record via a less-than-
strict adherence to the facts. Rupel issued a
clarifying statement on 15 April that unconvincingly
attempts to cast the controversy as a misinterpretation
of his original intent, explaining that he faulted
Cerar's manner of fighting for the ministerial slot
rather than Rop's nomination of her. We don't know what
Rupel's intent was, but he has stepped out on a limb in
openly challenging PM Rop, the LDS political
strategists, and the coalition leadership. Rop has
deferred announcing any official punishment of Rupel
until his five new Cabinet ministers are in place (ref
A),but Rupel's future is far from certain. This and
other incidents further exacerbate unity problems
within both the coalition and the LDS. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On April 7, 2004, the three Peoples Party (SLS)
ministers resigned from their GoS positions following
the party's exclusion from all coalition decision-
making after SLS failed to support two coalition
ministers facing no-confidence votes (ref A). On April
9, 2004 PM Rop proposed technocrat replacements for the
three ministers to the Parliament, with coalition
agreement: State Prosecutor General Zdenka Cerar for
Justice Minister, Marko Pavliha for Agriculture
Minister, and Milan Pogacnik for Transport Minister.
Opposition parties have only objected to Cerar's
nomination, based on concerns over her performance as
State Prosecutor.


3. (U) On 13 April, Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel
sent a personal letter to National Assembly members in
which he openly opposed Rop's proposal of Cerar for the
Minister of Justice. In his letter Rupel claimed Cerar
is not an appropriate candidate for the position, given
that she "frequently proceeded in contradiction with
the proverbial independence of judiciary" in the
execution of her current duties and that nominating her
for minister would be contrary to the "realization" of
European standards and would cause Slovenia to become
an object of derision. He also accused Cerar of "being
responsible for delays in solving some of the most
sensitive cases, such as SIB Bank, in which even some
prominent LDS members are involved."


4. (U) Rupel's letter went on to pointedly criticize
the governing style of the coalition itself, and by
implication, PM Rop and his own Liberal Democratic
Party (LDS). Rupel wrote: "regrettably recently, even
in cases of national interest, we often decide for
polarization and elimination instead of gathering
around the center and looking for consensus. They [LDS
and the rest of coalition] disregard the importance of
understanding and think that simple outvoting and
deciding with the majority is enough for controlling
complex social processes. Even the decisions that
brought to the separation of SLS and the coalition
prove that we are in the middle of explicit
polarization."


5. (U) On 14 April, Cerar reacted to the letter by
expressing the hope that she would have the opportunity
to answer Rupel's charges during her parliamentary
hearings. Suggesting that Rupel's comments were
revenge-based, she also stated, "I regret that this
personal and political overreaction happened at my
candidacy in the manner of an irresponsible attempt to
harm my personal reputation and the reputation of the
prosecution office and overall judiciary." She added
that "...during my leadership, Slovenian State
Prosecutors never performed under my dictate, nor under
a political one, but only by the law, and independently

within the framework of their authority." [NOTE: On 15
April, the National Assembly's International Affairs
Committee approved Cerar's nomination by a vote of 12-
5, split along party lines. Full floor vote is
scheduled for 19 April.]


6. (U) Other reaction from GoS officials has been
reserved. LDS Education Minister Slavko Gaber (who
usually finds himself on the opposite side of policy
and political strategy battles with Rupel) quipped
"well, you know he likes to write..." when asked to
comment by TV Slovenia. PM Rop initially said only
that "it would be wrong to react too emotionally and
quickly" to the letter, but that "Cerar will easily
respond to Rupel's criticisms." Later on 15 April,
after consulting with the LDS executive council, Rop
announced that he would hold off making any decisions
on Rupel's continued participation in the government
until after the replacements for Ministers Potocnik,
Petrin, Bizjak, But, and Presecnik were in place.
Asked about the executive council views on Rupel's
future, Rop responded "There are different positions.
I think that foremost the interests of the state and
the tasks ahead should be pursued, and of course in
this context it should be studied how and in what way
the functioning of the government can be provided
efficiently." Rop deferred questions about Rupel's
continued willingness to serve in the government to
Rupel himself, but did comment that "it will have to be
seen whether this is possible."


7. (SBU) Several prominent newspaper commentators have
lashed into Rupel already, no doubt (again) smelling
blood in the water. Criticisms go well beyond Rupel's
current act of rebellion, dragging out every
"indiscretion" -- both real and imagined -- he has
committed during his tenure. The attacks are not by
any stretch of the imagination confined to the facts.
For example, Rupel has been accused of signing the
infamous V-10 Statement on Iraq in blatant disregard of
the Cabinet position, when in fact he was authorized to
do so. He also has been accused of paying millions of
tolars under the table to the nascent diplomatic
academy in return for a teaching job, when the MFA
budget and the official Letter of Agreement he signed
with the academy clearly prove otherwise.


8. (SBU) Rupel himself reentered the fray late on 15
April, issuing a public statement clarifying his
original letter. In it he presented a less than
convincing argument that his intent had been
misinterpreted. Rupel explained that he did not mean
to criticize PM Rop for nominating Cerar or the
coalition for supporting that nomination. Rather, he
faulted the manner in which Cerar herself had pursued
the ministerial slot, since he personally believed it
was unsuitable for a candidate to actively fight for
such a prominent position, but instead should await the
PM's decision and accept it graciously.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) We don't know to what degree the media's
bashing of Rupel is being directed by his political
rivals. Rupel has a generally adversarial relationship
with the press, so it would not take much prompting to
get the ink flowing. However, Delo's lead editorial on
the topic was viciously comprehensive in its itemizing
of Rupel's sins. The prominent placement of the piece
in the paper's morning edition is particularly
noteworthy given that the story of the letter first
broke in television newscasts the prior evening --
after normal filing deadlines. Additionally, a more
general editorial by a longtime intellectual adversary
of Rupel's, which featured a similar laundry list of
criticisms, appeared in the morning paper on the day
that Rupel sent the letter.


10. (SBU) We also don't know Rupel's motivation in
sending the letter, the implications of which he must
have realized. Rupel certainly has no love lost for
Cerar. He has disagreed with the direction in which
domestic political players like Gaber have taken LDS
recently. He has a generally good relationship with
former LDS leader President Drnovsek -- who understands
the importance of consensus to Slovenian political

tradition and has had a falling out with former protg
Rop. Rupel also has a good personal relationship with
SDS President Janez Jansa -- his old DEMOS colleague.
In any case, he has taken his professional future in
his hands with this move, and his survival is far from
certain.



11. (SBU) The Rupel letter is the latest in a series
of recent developments that reflect a growing crisis of
unity among governing coalition parties and within the
ranks of the LDS. The constant disputes with SLS when
it was still a member of the coalition, the SLS
rebellion and expulsion, the inability of the coalition
to gain parliamentary approval for candidates for
routine positions (such as the Head of the Court of
Audit, the Slovenian Eurojust rep, and a variety of EU
judicial positions),and now Rupel's letter are the
most obvious indications of these internal problems.
However, we have also heard complaints from LDS party
contacts and from staff within the Prime Minister's
Office about Rop's general inaccessibility -- routinely
blamed on the tight control maintained by his personal
communications adviser and closest aide, Marijana
Kanduti.


12. (SBU) Internal rivalries are not new to LDS.
There have been problems and the emergence of factions
in the past. But, the party has always managed to
overcome disputes and to organize itself at the right
moment, before elections, (helped by the fact that the
internal factions have no desire to weaken the
political powerhouse they are fighting over, and by the
opposition's historical inability to present voters a
viable alternative). However, a crucial electoral
dynamic is that Slovenian voters (not unlike their
American counterparts) tend to vote against
parties/candidates rather than in favor of them.
Taking this into consideration, LDS will place itself
in a risky position if it does not settle things
quickly, as voters could be sufficiently frustrated to
vote against LDS. Whether those votes would go to a
different coalition party (ZLSD, for example) or to the
opposition is not clear. However Janez Jansa's SDS is
positioning itself to take advantage of this
possibility by announcing the formation of a shadow
cabinet. END COMMENT.


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