Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LJUBLJANA1136
2004-12-27 02:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ljubljana
Cable title:  

SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS HAVE HEADS IN THE SAND

Tags:  PGOV SI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 001136 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2014
TAGS: PGOV SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS HAVE HEADS IN THE SAND


Classified By: Ambassador Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 001136

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2014
TAGS: PGOV SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS HAVE HEADS IN THE SAND


Classified By: Ambassador Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) After leading Slovene governments for 12 years, the
Liberal Democracy Party (LDS) became over-confident,
assuming, perhaps, that inertia would sweep it back into
office last October 3. Accusations of arrogance have been
heaped upon the party, even from within, and it is widely
agreed that a lack of vision and leadership contributed
significantly to LDS' poor showing in the elections.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


2. (U) In 1992, after the dissolution of DEMOS, a
democratic coalition that defeated the Communists in
Slovenia's first free elections in 1990, LDS emerged as
Slovenia's strongest political party. That same year, LDS
received the relative majority in national elections and
formed its first coalition government. LDS won enough votes
to form governments in 1996 and 2000. In May of 2000, LDS
lost control of government in a vote of no-confidence, but
returned to power six months later in special elections when
it received an unprecedented 36% of the vote.


3. (U) During the 10 years from 1992-2002, Janez Drnovsek
led the LDS and the GOS as prime minister. Fatigued by years
of intra-coalition negotiations and a serious bout with
kidney cancer, Drnovsek decided to run for President (a much
less demanding position) in 2002. He won Presidential
elections in November 2002 and chose Anton Rop as his
successor both as president of the party and as prime
minister.

--------------
A STEP TO THE LEFT
--------------


4. (C) With Rop in the lead, a pronounced shift to the left
occurred. Rop seemed to shrug off the mantle Drnovsek had
passed to him and determined to chart an independent (of the
old-line LDS) course for the Government. Relying primarily
on his own close circle of advisors, Rop created what would
become an unbridgeable gap between himself and the
traditional LDS base of voters and political supporters.


5. (C) Rop and his party did not heed the signs when the LDS
and the left essentially lost the elections for European
Parliament in June 2004. The LDS treated this result as a
one-off event rather than a red flag signaling a loss of
voter support. Even notoriously pro-LDS polls were
indicating an LDS drop in popularity. Yet, Rop and the LDS
made little extra effort to rally support for the October
2004 elections. Slovene voters took a jump to the right and
the LDS seemed as surprised to lose as Jansa and his
coalition did to win.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The loss of both sets of elections in 2004 did little
to foster real introspection among the LDS leadership.
Instead of analyzing "why" it lost, the party looked to cast
blame. Some called publicly for Rop's resignation as party
president, others blamed the media - generally considered a
strong supporter of LDS - thus alienating another long-time
constituency. In an early December party congress, Anton Rop
was re-elected as president of the LDS, an interesting move
considering Rop's leadership is widely viewed as a primary
cause of LDS' recent losses. If the LDS hopes to do well in
local elections in 2006 or even to regain power in national
elections in 2008, it will have to shed its image of
arrogance and develop a program that appeals to voters
clearly fed up with how the old-boys club, under Anton Rop,
had been running the country.
ROBERTSON


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