Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LILONGWE895
2004-09-16 13:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

UDF INSIDER VENTS ON THE MUTHARIKA ADMINISTRATION

Tags:  PGOV EFIN PINR KCOR MI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000895 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV EFIN PINR KCOR MI
SUBJECT: UDF INSIDER VENTS ON THE MUTHARIKA ADMINISTRATION

REF: LILONGWE 854

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000895

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV EFIN PINR KCOR MI
SUBJECT: UDF INSIDER VENTS ON THE MUTHARIKA ADMINISTRATION

REF: LILONGWE 854

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) MP Austin Muluzi,
son of former President Bakili Muluzi, spoke freely about the
UDF's displeasure with President Bingu wa Mutharika at a
September 15 lunch with poloff. According to Austin, UDF MPs
plan to feign support for Mutharika's budget at a September
15 party caucus with Mutharika and then to vote against it
the following week. Describing the President and his
administration as politically unsavvy, Austin explained that
the President had been blatantly ignoring the UDF because
Mutharika felt, until recently, he had the opposition's full
support. Turning to former President Muluzi's recent
grassroots rallies, Austin said Muluzi wanted to ensure he
had popular support in case Mutharika tries to bring Muluzi
up on corruption charges, which both son and father were
convinced would happen in the near future. Austin reported
that Muluzi had made a gentlemen's agreement with Mutharika
that Mutharika could prosecute members of the former
administration, as long as Muluzi was left out of it. New to
Malawian politics, Austin has a rather dramatic
interpretation of current political discourse, but he is in
all of the right conversations with all of the right people.
END SUMMARY.

TAKING THE BUDGET TO THE FLOOR
--------------

2. (C) At a September 15 lunch with poloff, United Democratic
Front (UDF) MP Austin Muluzi, son of former President Bakili
Muluzi, said the current budget session of Parliament would
finish on September 24, one week longer than expected
(reftel). During the session, Austin said the Mutharika
administration would have trouble passing its budget because
UDF MPs planned to vote against it in protest of the
President's lack of support for the party. According to
Austin, UDF MPs planned to feign support for the budget at a
September 15 party caucus with the President in order to
preempt any suspicions the President may have.

DISPLEASURE IN THE UDF: "TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE"
-------------- -

3. (C) Characterizing the vote against the budget as a form

of protest, Austin said that many MPs in the UDF are
discontented by Mutharika's lack of support for the party,
willingness to try the party faithful for alleged corruption,
and unilateral decisions without consulting the party. It is
only recently, according to Austin, that Mutharika has
attended party rallies, and only under intense pressure from
party members and decreasing support from the opposition.
Austin also described the party's growing disdain with
several of Mutharika's "loud" appointments, like Director of
Public Prosecutions Ishmael Wadi and Chief of Staff Ken
Ng'oma, who consistently lambaste Muluzi and the UDF. Austin
said Mutharika recently realized that his support in the
opposition was waning and that he needed to improve relations
with the UDF. The feeling amongst party members, Austin
said, is that Mutharika has done "too little, too late" for
the party.

COURTING OPPOSITION SUPPORT
--------------

4. (C) Summarizing Mutharika's political strategy, Austin
said Mutharika believed he could garner support from the
opposition ranks by implementing their initiatives and
rebuffing the UDF. Austin cited budgets items such as the
mausoleum for former President-for-Life Dr. Kamuzu Banda as
evidence of Mutharika's alliance with the opposition Malawi
Congress Party (MCP),which controls the most seats in
Parliament. This strategy worked for a while, Austin
surmised, until opposition leadership began feeling that
Mutharika was stealing their reform initiatives and taking
all the credit. Only with support waning in the opposition
did Mutharika return to the UDF. Mutharika has, however,
continued his attempts to build his central region support by
reverting the names of Lilongwe International Airport,
Lilongwe Central Hospital, and Chichiri Stadium to their
pre-multi-party democracy names of "Kamuzu Banda," a move
which has been trumpeted by the MCP.

ADVISING MUTHARIKA
--------------

5. (C) According to Austin, Mutharika has three principal
advisors: Chief of Staff Ken Ng'oma, Chief Secretary for the
Public Service Charles Matabwa, and his Chief Security
Advisor (no name given). Foremost in the next tier of
advisors is Secretary to the President and Cabinet Bright
Msaka. Austin, however, said Msaka, a distant relation of
Muluzi's, was "on Muluzi's team," and Mutharika only trusted
him to a point. Austin also said Minister of Finance Goodall
Gondwe, an old friend of Mutharika's, was really more in the
Muluzi camp than the Mutharika one and that Gondwe was
becoming "very frustrated" with Mutharika's unilateral style
of management. (COMMENT: Very politically savvy, Gondwe was
Muluzi's Economic Advisor during the second Muluzi
administration. He maintains close relations with both
Muluzi and Mutharika. END COMMENT.)

MULUZI: TAKING CARE OF HIMSELF
--------------

6. (C) Confirming Muluzi's drive for a third term was born in
fear of what would happen after he left office, Austin said
his father had a gentlemen's agreement with Mutharika that
Mutharika could prosecute anyone from the previous
administration for corruption, as long as Muluzi was left out
of it. Austin specifically cited former Minister of Finance
Friday Jumbe as a potential target. Austin said that
contrary to the agreement, reliable information has reached
both him and his father that Mutharika is now speaking about
"when Muluzi is arrested," not "if."


7. (C) In an attempt to keep the party together and to
maintain his own popular support, Muluzi has started holding
more political rallies at the grassroots. Austin said Muluzi
feels his only remaining strategy against a potential arrest
for corruption is if he "has the people on his side."
According to all indications, Muluzi remains very popular in
the villages, while the educated urbanites would support his
prosecution.

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) Politically immature, Austin has a dramatic
interpretation of current political debate; that said, he is
at the center of all major UDF discussions. While there may
be growing displeasure with Mutharika in the UDF and
Mutharika may be losing opposition support, voting the budget
down would be an unprecedented (and unlikely) vote of no
confidence by Parliament. Austin clearly sees ruling party
and opposition support as a zero-sum game. Mutharika, on the
other hand, has a more nuanced understanding and realizes
that the UDF is no longer the voting block it once was and
may only be a source of some support.


9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. We have no trouble believing that
Muluzi is willing to let others take the fall in order to
save himself. While Muluzi's former cronies will likely try
to implicate him as well, Muluzi knows that support from the
presidency would likely be enough to shield him from
prosecution. Yet, Mutharika has given no indication that
that support will be forthcoming. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC