A TECHNOCRAT TAKES OFFICE: MUTHARIKA AT 100 DAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000844

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S ADRIENNE GALANEK
DEPT FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR ECON EFIN MI
SUBJECT: A TECHNOCRAT TAKES OFFICE: MUTHARIKA AT 100 DAYS

REF: A. LILONGWE 586


B. LILONGWE 839

C. LILONGWE 559

D. LILONGWE 838

E. LILONGWE 404

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Elected by a small margin and achieved only with
former President Bakili Muluzi's support, President Bingu wa
Mutharika has made surprisingly independent strides in
rooting out corruption, instilling fiscal discipline, and
professionalizing government. His operating assumption is
that if he runs government well, he will garner the support
necessary to carry out reforms, with or without Muluzi and
the United Democratic Front (UDF). However, with Mutharika's
technocratic approach to running government has come a
general disregard for the public's perception of his actions
and a disinterest in managing the politics of the presidency.
Mutharika has also given very little attention to HIV/AIDS
and privatization. While he is still learning the boundaries
of his power, Mutharika is faring well in regaining the
international community's confidence in the government of
Malawi, which will ultimately unlock financial resources.
END SUMMARY.

SEPARATING PARTY AND STATE: UDF VS. GOM
--------------

2. (C) Since his inauguration on May 24, President Bingu wa
Mutharika's biggest political problems have been with his own
party. A move to make the ruling United Democratic Front
(UDF) party separate from government, coupled with a
disinterest in managing the politics that go with the
presidency, has left Mutharika outside the party fold and
caused party loyalists to question his allegiance to the UDF.
Muluzi, as party chair, continues to demonstrate that he
rules the UDF by making whistle-stop tours and by managing
the internal party politics. Without Muluzi, Mutharika would
likely take additional steps to make a more clear distinction
between the UDF and the GOM, but Mutharika would also have an
unruly UDF on his hands, ready to actively work against the
administration's reform initiatives.

ROOTING OUT CORRUPTION: ON THE ROAD TO ZAMBIA?
-------------- -

3. (C) With Mutharika's zero-tolerance policy on corruption
and repeated statements about prosecuting offenders at all
levels of government, civil society and the media have
speculated that Muluzi will be brought to book (reftel A).
Officials at the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) have also
intimated that they plan to prosecute "at the very highest
levels of government" (reftel B). In order to preempt a
Zambia-style corruption investigation, Muluzi has tried to
make Mutharika politically dependent on him (reftel C).
However, continuing tension between Muluzi and Mutharika
indicate that Muluzi's plans have not been successful and
that Mutharika sees little value in Muluzi's political stock.
If the ACB does investigate Muluzi for corruption, it is
unlikely that Mutharika will protect him, as Mutharika
promised to do during the campaign period.

MAKING A PROFESSIONAL GO OF IT
--------------

4. (C) Most impressive since Mutharika took office has been
his commitment to appointing professionals to senior GOM
positions. The cabinet is largely composed of qualified
technocrats, and the Director of Public Prosecutions, Army
Commander, and Secretaries to the President and Cabinet are
all qualified individuals. A focus on putting the right
people in the right jobs has resulted in a re-ordering of the
principal secretaries in all ministries and has reverberated
through the civil service as a demand to perform. Also
encouraging is the seemingly independent operation of these
individuals with the authority of their offices, which was
not the case under Muluzi.


5. (C) While Mutharika's "professional government" has been
well received by civil society and the media, his dismantling
of Muluzi's political patronage system and empowerment of
government offices to investigate and prosecute wrongdoing
have increased the tension between Mutharika and Muluzi's old
guard in the UDF. Many of Muluzi's most loyal, now the
subject of corruption investigations, are embittered and have
only been kept in check by Muluzi. Without Muluzi, there
would be a much more vocal opposition to Mutharika in the UDF.

NOTABLY ABSENT: HIV/AIDS AND PRIVATIZATION
--------------

6. (C) Although Mutharika has given fiscal discipline and the
government budget a great deal of attention, he has put
privatization of statutory corporations on hold. The
privatization of Malawi Telecommunications, Limited (MTL) was
frozen in final negotiations almost as soon as Mutharika took
office, without announcement or explanation. Although
Mutharika's economic reforms have produced optimism in the
private sector (reftel D),his statist economic origins
remain a clear influence in his policies. How Mutharika
treats the parastatals will reveal much about his commitment
to private sector as the engine of economic growth.


7. (C) Apart from a few statements at the recent SADC
Heads-of-State meeting in Mauritius, Mutharika has said
almost nothing about HIV/AIDS. With an infection rate of
over 14 percent dramatically affecting Malawi's productivity
and large amounts of resources coming for prevention and
treatment, the Mutharika administration will have to take a
more active role in HIV/AIDS leadership to make meaningful
gains.

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) Mutharika has a window of opportunity in that most
Malawians genuinely believe that with proper leadership,
corruption can be controlled and the economy will turn
around. In addition, the international community is eager to
resume financial support. Mutharika's initial gestures
toward reform have done much to regain the GOM's credibility,
which Muluzi seriously wounded in the run-up to the
elections. However, while Mutharika has thus far been able
to garner political support by "doing the right thing," he is
not as politically astute as his predecessor. He does not
recognize the importance perception plays in politics, and he
does not realize the value of loyalty in partisan politics.


9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. As Mutharika continues to bank on
opposition support, Muluzi will try to prove his political
worth to Mutharika by keeping the UDF old guard in check and
working the grassroots for support for the UDF. In the end,
Mutharika may find that he needs Muluzi more than he thinks
in order to affect political change, and Muluzi will be an
eager aide in order to protect and position himself in the
long-term. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC