OPPOSITION SET TO TAKE PARLIAMENT'S LEADERSHIP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000468

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SET TO TAKE PARLIAMENT'S LEADERSHIP

REF: A. LILONGWE 450


B. LILONGWE 449

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) As Parliament prepares for the June 7 swearing-in of
new members and selection of leadership, opposition political
parties have pledged to work together to take control of the
House. Meanwhile, the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF)
is trying to gain the support of independents MPs, most of
whom were once members of the UDF. Establishing and
maintaining a working majority will likely dominate
parliamentary politics over the coming year. END SUMMARY.

COMPOSITION OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
--------------

2. (U) Revised election tallies and wrangles over disputed
results in some parliamentary districts leave the current
breakdown of political parties in Parliament as follows:
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) - 56; United Democratic Front
(UDF) - 49; Republican Party - 15; National Democratic
Alliance (NDA) - 8; Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) 6;
People's Progressive Movement (PPM) - 6; Movement for Genuine
Democratic Change (MGODE) - 3; Congress for National Unity
(CONU) - 1; and People's Transformation Party (PETRA) - 1.
39 independents also won seats. For the 193 member house,
the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has not yet announced
results for 3 constituencies and will hold by-elections in 6
constituencies in which elections were not held.


3. (U) By-elections will also be held in President Bingu wa
Mutharika and Vice President Cassim Chilumpha's
constituencies, as the Constitution bars the President and
First and Second Vice Presidents from holding seats in the
National Assembly. (NOTE: Until by-elections are conducted,
the UDF will only have 47 MPs, which reduces its ability to
influence the initial selection of Parliament's leadership.
It is expected that the UDF will win the by-elections in both
the President and Vice President's constituencies.)

ALLIANCE BUILDING
--------------

4. (SBU) To bolster its numbers, the ruling UDF has actively
been pursuing independents and opposition MPs to join its
ranks, or to enter informal voting alliances. UDF chairman
Bakili Muluzi, who vowed that independents would not be
welcomed back into the party, has reversed himself and called
for independents to return to the UDF. The UDF leadership
claims to have support from several of them, many of whom
originally wished to stand on the UDF ticket but were not
supported by the UDF leadership. CONU MP Richard Mwaila has
also announced he will support the UDF.


5. (SBU) A May 25 press release issued by the MCP, NDA, and
Mgwirizano Coalition (comprising RP, PPM, MGODE, and PETRA)
stated that the parties have agreed to work together "to
effectively provide a vibrant opposition in Parliament and
ensure that there are checks and balances in all operations
of government." If successful in joining together, the
opposition coalition would have support from 89 MPs, 8 shy of
a simple majority in the House (before independents are
counted). MCP MP Louis Chimango has been tipped as Speaker
of Parliament, with the First and Second Duty Speakerships
going to the RP and NDA, respectively. The statement,
however, explicitly stated that "each party will work
independently outside Parliament" and that the agreement to
work together does not negate RP President Gwanda Chakuamba's
legal challenge of the elections (reftel B). (NOTE: An MCP
spokesperson announced on May 20 that MCP will support
Chakuamba's case by providing legal support and evidence.
END NOTE.)

PARLIAMENT TO CONVENE, SELECT LEADERS
--------------

6. (U) The Clerk of Parliament announced on May 31 that
Parliament will hold a swearing-in of new members and
selection of leadership on June 7. Among the positions to be
determined are Speaker, First and Second Deputy Speakers, and
committee chairs. The two-day session will also include a
basic orientation to Parliament.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (SBU) Independents will be the key players in Parliament,
and they are currently being wooed by both sides. At
present, it is difficult to determine how many will support
the ruling party and how many will join the opposition
alliance. The almost equal division between the two sides
will also make the forthcoming by-elections very contentious
competitions, which could ultimately determine who has
control of Parliament. In any case, maintenance of alliances
will remain a constant challenge for leadership on both sides
of the house.


8. COMMENT CONTINUED. In the past, opposition has seen its
primary role as that of thwarting government initiatives
rather than offering alternate programs and policies. If the
opposition does successfully take control of the House's
leadership, it will have to break from this mind-set in order
to work constructively. END COMMENT.
DOUGHERTY