Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LILONGWE450
2004-05-25 13:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF

Tags:  PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000450 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF
WEAKNESSES

REF: A. LILONGWE 404


B. LILONGWE 438 AND PREVIOUS

Summary
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000450

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF
WEAKNESSES

REF: A. LILONGWE 404


B. LILONGWE 438 AND PREVIOUS

Summary
--------------

1. (SBU) Low voter turnout, a splintering of parties in
Parliament, an unprecedented number of independent
parliamentary victors, and the failure of eleven former
cabinet members to win in the elections on May 20 showed an
electorate deeply dissatisfied with the status quo. While
the majority (of those who bothered to turn out) voted
against the UDF, it retains the presidency. Building a
parliamentary majority is the UDF's immediate challenge, and
how the party attempts to meet that challenge will tell much
about President Mutharika's standing among party leaders and
with the opposition. End summary.

Voter Turnout Sharply Down; Majority Votes Against Winner
-------------- --------------

2. (U) Despite long lines early on polling day, only 54% of
Malawi's 5.7 million registered voters turned out for
presidential and parliamentary elections on May 20. That
stands in sharp contrast to the last presidential elections
in 1999, when 92% of registered voters cast ballots.


3. (U) As reported in ref B, the ruling United Democratic
Front's (UDF) Bingu wa Mutharika was declared the winner of
presidential elections with 35% of the vote. More than
two-thirds of votes went to opposition candidates, but they
were split four ways. The closest candidate, John Tembo of
the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) received 27% of the vote, and
Mgwirizano Coalition/Republican Party candidate Gwanda
Chakuamba came in a close third with 26%.

Number of Parties in Parliament Jumps
--------------

4. (SBU) The year-long splintering of political parties that
had marked the run-up to the elections (ref A) was reflected
in the polls, and the number of parties represented in the
National Assembly has jumped from four to nine. With
victories in 59 constituencies, the MCP won an (at least
initial) plurality in the 193-seat legislature. It was
followed by the UDF (49),the Republican Party (16),the
National Democratic Alliance (8),the Alliance for Democracy
(6),the Movement for Genuine Democratic Change (3),the
People's Transformation Party (1),and the Congress for
National Unity (1). Thirty-eight independents also won

seats, and six seats remain vacant awaiting by-elections.
(Note: Parliamentary victories by President Mutharika and
Vice President Chilumpha will result in two more
by-elections, which will likely be re-won by the UDF.)


5. (SBU) The results somewhat exaggerate the ruling party's
parliamentary losses, because many of the 38 independent
candidates had originally wished to stand for the UDF.
Despite their apparent popularity at the district level, many
of these aspirants were pushed aside by favorites of the
UDF's senior leadership and had to run as independents. At
least one has already announced that she will return to the
UDF fold, and others are being heavily courted.


6. (SBU) At the party-level, the Alliance for Democracy
(AFORD) suffered the worst losses, dropping from the 33 seats
it won in 1999 to six. AFORD President Chakufwa Chihana's
2003 decision to ally himself with former President Muluzi
and the UDF broke the former powerhouse of the northern
region into a rump AFORD and the opposition Movement for
Genuine Democratic Change (MGODE). Voters apparently also
deserted AFORD for the Republican Party (RP) and the People's
Progressive Movement (PPM).


7. (U) The National Democratic Alliance, which broke away
from the UDF in 2000 to become a "pressure group," solidified
its standing in parliament with eight victories. Four of
those victories came in the southern district of Mulanje,
home of NDA presidential candidate (and returning
parliamentarian) Brown Mpinganjira. Singer-turned-NDA
candidate Billy Kaunda also won his seat.


8. (U) Other notable parliamentary victors included
independent presidential candidate (and former vice president
to Muluzi) Justin Malewezi, Mgwirizano Coalition vice
presidential candidate Aleke Banda (a former UDF minister and
founder who had defected from the party),and former
President Muluzi's son Atupele.

Former UDF/AFORD/NCD Cabinet Members Fall
--------------

9. (SBU) Eleven former cabinet members and several other
UDF/AFORD alliance heavyweights fell during the elections.
Former cabinet members who lost their parliamentary seats
included Sam Mpasu (Minister of Commerce),Mary Banda
(Minister for HIV/AIDS),Monjeza Maluza (Minister of Home
Affairs),Phillip Bwanali (Minister of Sports, Youth, and
Culture),Wallace Chiume (Minister of Tourism),Salim Bagus
(Minister of State for Local Government),Heatherwick Ntaba
(Minister of Mining and Energy),Chipimpha Mughogho (Minister
without portfolio),James Chikwenga (Deputy Minister of
Transport and Public Works),Sebastian Chikhadza (Deputy
Minister of Health),and Khwauli Msiska (Deputy Minister of
Finance). Other notables who failed in their electoral bids
were Enock Chihana (son of AFORD President Chihana and an
official in Muluzi's Office of the President and Cabinet) and
the UDF Secretary General Kennedy Makwangwala. Friday Jumbe,
who had been Minister of Finance but had not been a
parliamentarian, won his constituency.


10. (U) Flamboyant former Minister of Water Dumbo Lemani,
speaking in an impromptu press conference on May 23, called
for all former UDF heavyweights who had lost their seats to
resign from the party's National Executive Committee. UDF
spokesman Ken Lipenga later qualified Lemani's statements,
however, saying they were not the views of the party.

Comment
--------------

11. (SBU) Lemani, an inner-circle hack of former President
Muluzi, was ingratiating himself to Mutharika with his call
for UDF losers to resign, but his demand illuminates the
difficulties the party faces. The sharp drop in voter
turnout, the splintering of Parliament, the unprecedented
victories of closet UDF and other independent candidates, and
the fall of many former cabinet members all point to a UDF
leadership out of touch with the voters and an electorate
deeply dissatisfied with the status quo. Many voters feel
that it is they who lost the elections. Re-fashioning and
re-orienting the UDF leadership to that reality will be a
major challenge for Mutharika -- if the hand-picked successor
to Muluzi is up to the challenge.


12. (SBU) Comment continued. More immediately, the UDF is
focused on trying to build a working majority in the National
Assembly, and party operatives are already wooing independent
parliamentarians. Most of the independents will return to
the UDF, but their renewed loyalty will be costly, as would
an alliance of convenience with one of the opposition
parties. How the party's need to co-opt parliamentarians is
balanced against Mutharika's stated goal of reducing the
country's bloated cabinet will tell much about the future of
the UDF, Mutharika's standing in the party, and the promise
of the new government for the average voter.


DOUGHERTY