Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LILONGWE404
2004-05-14 11:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

FREER, BUT POORER: MALAWI AFTER TEN YEARS OF

Tags:  PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 LILONGWE 000404 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI
SUBJECT: FREER, BUT POORER: MALAWI AFTER TEN YEARS OF
DEMOCRACY

REF: 03 LILONGWE 1202

2004 Elections a Milestone for Malawi's Democracy
--------------------------------------------- ----
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 LILONGWE 000404

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI
SUBJECT: FREER, BUT POORER: MALAWI AFTER TEN YEARS OF
DEMOCRACY

REF: 03 LILONGWE 1202

2004 Elections a Milestone for Malawi's Democracy
-------------- --------------

1. (SBU) Summary and introduction: This month's presidential
and parliamentary elections will mark ten years since
Malawi's first democratic elections and the transition away
from Dr. Hastings Kamuzu Banda's thirty-year dictatorship.
Much has changed, for better and for worse, since the advent
of "multipartyism" in 1994, and it is an appropriate time to
take stock of Malawi's democratic development.


2. (SBU) One of our diplomatic colleagues summarized the
past decade by saying that Malawians are "freer, but poorer"
now. We must agree. The days of domestic intelligence
officers monitoring social functions and the capricious
jailing of political activists are long gone; they have been
replaced by a remarkable openness among Malawians, both in
person and in public. The small private media are vibrant
and enthusiastic. The military remains impressively
apolitical. Accountability and oversight institutions, while
weak, have survived, and a nascent civil society scored a
major victory in 2003 when President Muluzi's bid to amend
the constitution and extend his time in office was defeated.


3. (SBU) At the same time, the average Malawian is
materially worse off today than in 1994. Per capita GDP, at
$180, has stagnated. Seasonal food shortages haunt the
countryside, and the manufacturing sector has shrunk.
Corruption, both official and petty, is on the rise.
Maternal mortality has become significantly worse, nearly
half of children suffer chronic malnutrition resulting in
stunting, and HIV/AIDS and other diseases have lowered life
expectancy from 45 (in 1987) to 39 years. Although there has
been some progress in addressing health concerns, behavior
change is elusive, anti-retroviral drugs to treat those with
AIDS have only recently become available to a tiny fraction
of the HIV-infected, and the challenges of delivering more
care are daunting. Too often resigned to their economic and
health "fates," people show up to political rallies to
receive cash handouts so they can buy some soap and perhaps a
bit of sugar for their tea.


4. (SBU) Whither Malawi's democracy? The lifting of decades

of repression, deteriorating living standards, and HIV/AIDS's
rending of the social fabric have led to a rise in crime and
a certain lawlessness in political, economic, and social
life. Addressing this feeling of "freedom without
responsibility" -- which pokes through at all levels of
society -- will be a major challenge for the country's next
ten years of democratic development, as will be the task of
rebuilding the economy. End summary and introduction.

Political Life
--------------

5. (SBU) Democratic institutions and traditions in Malawi
are fragile, and the transition to democracy is still very
much a work in progress. The executive branch exercises
considerable authority over the legislature and judiciary;
Parliament has trouble focusing its attention on pertinent
and timely legislation; regional and personal loyalties trump
ideas in party-building; and only some judges exhibit real
independence. With that said, Malawi's democratic
consolidation has engaged civil society and the media, and
human rights and freedoms are generally respected. More
Malawians are actively participating in political and civic
life, and popular support for the idea of a national
democracy is strong (though not coupled to a grass-roots
understanding of institutions or expectations of performance).


6. (SBU) The executive branch's disproportionate access to
resources and corresponding influence, however, continues to
define much of Malawi's politicking, precluding the normal
checks and balances of a more mature democracy. The
President, with his absolute control over the size and
composition of the Cabinet (bloated now to 46 members),is at
the helm of a well-greased patronage machine that doles out
Mercedes, luxury four-by-fours, government residences,
first-class travel, numerous allowances, and various other
"personal emoluments" to the favored. Finance Ministers --
even backed by threats from the IMF -- have been unable to
control the President's travel, state residences' expenses,
and discretionary budgets. And the executive branch as a
whole routinely overruns its budget, only sometimes seeking
ex-post approval from Parliament through supplementary
budgets. In a significant change, however, 2003 saw
Parliament's first open-floor challenge to the GOM's budget
as presented by the Finance Minister, and, after several
years of technical assistance, budget and finance oversight
committees now seem more comfortable in reading and
questioning budget line items.


7. (SBU) Other promising signs of incipient Parliamentary
activism include a general increase in the quality of
legislative committees, President Muluzi's inability to end
his term limit through "Open Term" and "Third Term" bills in
2002 and 2003, and opposition successes in blocking
government-introduced legislation (such as late-2003
proposals to amend an anti-corruption bill and the act
governing the agricultural parastatal ADMARC) by pushing it
to committee. The opposition's new-found ability to stand in
the way of legislation arose from the splintering in all
political parties that occurred in the run-up to this year's
elections, but the unprecedented number of independent
candidates currently running -- and the almost certainty that
no party will control a majority in the next parliament --
could conceivably consolidate that power into a major
democratic gain. Although such a consolidation is by no
means assured, the judiciary's striking down of
"floor-crossing" legislation, previously an effective tool
for enforcing rigid party discipline, makes it more likely.


8. (SBU) Malawi is a highly litigious society, with suits,
countersuits, injunctions, and counterinjunctions punctuating
the daily life of politicians, businesspeople, and even
sports figures. Over-reliance on the courts reflects the
basic fairness Malawians perceive in the judiciary, but it
also indicates their frustrations with other, largely
ineffective government institutions. Several judges have
shown admirable independence over the past ten years in
high-profile and politically sensitive cases, and the
judiciary's ability to rebuff parliamentary attempts in 2001
to remove several independent judges was a major step
forward. Inefficiency, backlogs, and a lack of resources,
however, commonly mar the system's ability to deliver timely
justice.


9. (SBU) While judges have often shown their independence,
the judicial system as a whole suffers from some political
bias exerted through the office of the Director of Public
Prosecutions (DPP). Politically appointed and beholden to
the President, the DPP has wide discretion over which cases
to prosecute (including cases brought by the independent
Anti-Corruption Bureau). It is no coincidence that at least
seven cases of corruption by ministers or other senior
officials during the Muluzi decade have not been pursued by
the DPP, while all the opposition presidential candidates
(John Tembo, Gwanda Chakuamba, Brown Mpinganjira, and Justin
Malewezi) have been prosecuted during the past three years.
That none of the four has been found guilty simultaneously
testifies both to judges' independence and to the system's
vulnerability to some political manipulation.

Civic Participation and the Rule of Law
--------------

10. (SBU) The media environment in Malawi has changed
drastically in the last ten years. During the previous
regime, the information environment was completely closed,
all news was censored, and freedom of speech did not exist.
Today, freedom of speech is a right that is exercised, and
private media is largely free. State-run media still exist,
however, and are tightly controlled by the government.
State-run Malawi Broadcasting Corporation (MBC radio) is the
only medium that reaches the entire population; it remains
the main source of formal news for most people. MBC almost
exclusively carries pro-government and pro-ruling party news.
Television Malawi, also state-owned and operated, reaches
the urban elite and is heavily biased towards the government.


11. (SBU) A slew of private media outlets opened at the time
of transition in 1994 and just as quickly were winnowed by
the marketplace. While fewer in number now -- and smaller
than their state-run counterparts -- private media are
playing an important, and growing, role in the information
environment. Two daily independent newspapers, one
opposition weekly, and several private radio broadcasters
carry largely unbiased news and are often critical of the
government. Journalists have become more professional and
investigative, and most private media, although lacking in
resources, are committed to advancing freedom of expression.


12. (SBU) A nascent civil society has taken some advantage
of the media environment, but much of the NGO community
remains "donor-centered" rather than attuned to the political
aspirations of average Malawians. A few voices for
accountability, transparency, and political activism stand
out, but government initiatives to tax, corral, and arm-twist
civil society are still tolerated and are therefore still
effective. Many of the most active NGOs are those with
foreign funding and ties that serve as a counterweight to the
government's bullying. Churches, tied to foreigners but also
deeply entwined with Malawi's history (including the
churches' pivotal role in the change to multi-party
democracy),remain the most influential civil society force.
Also noteworthy is the rapid rise of Islam and the
proliferation of foreign-financed mosques, which are less
visible than the churches but can sway opinion at the
grass-roots level, especially in the south and along the
lakeshore.


13. (SBU) When civil society does mobilize the population,
as it did during President Muluzi's bid to end presidential
term limits, it runs afoul of the police. Deeply resistant
to change despite an ambitious training program run by the
British, the police (like most Malawians) appear to have
difficulty distinguishing between the government of the day
and the ruling party. Officers remain somewhat intolerant of
demonstrations and their crowd control tactics are often
heavy-handed. Aggressive police reaction to protests --
particularly those by students -- has provoked vandalism,
which too easily escalates to the use of live ammunition and,
occasionally, deaths. Deaths of detainees in police custody
have also provoked public outrage. While a far cry from the
enforcers of the Banda regime, the police still must develop
the understanding that their primary relationship is to the
populace -- rather than the government.


14. (SBU) The Malawi Defense Force (MDF),in contrast,
remains impressively professional and apolitical, and
attempts to draw the army into the political arena continue
to be swiftly and decisively rebuffed by senior military
officials. As one of the first African militaries to
complete all six phases of the US-sponsored African Crisis
Response Initiative (ACRI) and to sign on to the Africa
Contingency Operations, Training, and Assistance (ACOTA)
Program, the MDF plans to open a regional peacekeeping
operations training school at its military college. In the
past decade, it has participated in peacekeeping missions to
Rwanda, DRC, Liberia, and KOSOVO, and it was first on the
scene with humanitarian relief during Mozambican floods.

Economic Development's Role
--------------

15. (SBU) Malawi is heavily donor-dependent, with bilateral
and multi-lateral aid contributing around 40% to the
government's budget. The donor dependency that has evolved
can verge on the absurd -- at the extreme, presidential
candidates have campaigned on their ability to beg from the
donors -- and that mentality, with its seeping assumption
that action can only be initiated by the government or the
donors, stands as one of the biggest obstacles to private
sector-led economic growth and democratic maturation.


16. (SBU) Malawi's grinding poverty, chronic food
insecurity, and a stagnant economy have robbed many of the
luxury of participating in political life. Not all is bleak:
poverty reduction, at least on paper, is now the government's
avowed priority, and significant infrastructure upgrades and
structural reforms have begun to attract limited foreign
investment. The resulting improvements in banking and the
retail grocery sector, for example, can already be seen in
urban areas. The benefits of reform will have to spread
further, however, before they reach the average Malawian and
create much-needed jobs.


17. (SBU) Beyond poverty's effects, the continued large role
of parastatal organizations in Malawi's economy hinders
democratic development. Lucrative memberships on parastatal
boards constitute the rolling stock of the government's gravy
train, tying perhaps 600 of the elite to the President's
power of appointment. Worse, the parastatals are generally
inefficient and drain the government's resources, raising the
burden on the average taxpayer while dragging down the
private sector. In a significant success of the past decade,
the government's privatization program has sold off more than
half of approximately 110 parastatals targeted, but the
remaining 50 or so companies -- many the largest and most
politically sensitive -- must be addressed to reinvigorate
the economy and reign in the executive's source of patronage
and all-too-easy influence over key economic sectors. If the
challenge of creating an indigenous constituency for the
private sector is simultaneously met, the long-term benefits
to political and economic life will be magnified.


18. (SBU) In the short term, the next government will face
significant difficulty in climbing out of the economic hole
dug by the Muluzi government. Ten years ago, the kwacha
traded at four to the dollar; now it trades at just under
110, and it is expected to depreciate further after the
elections. Three years of a rocky relationship with the IMF
have also left the government with a non-functioning Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility, chronic government
overspending, interest rates above 35%, and a domestic debt
that has grown nearly fivefold since 2000. The resulting
macroeconomic environment is not conducive to growth, and
rising interest payments have deeply cut into other
government expenditures. The debt is widely acknowledged as
unsustainable, and it carries significant risk to overall
macroeconomic stability. The new government will have to
address these problems to resume poverty reduction and
support Malawi's long-term democratic development.


19. (SBU) Education and agriculture will also have to be
addressed. President Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF)
instituted free universal education when it took power in
1994, a move that was highly popular and long overdue.
However, a lack of resources, a dearth of trained teachers,
few educational materials, poor management and
administration, and the HIV/AIDS pandemic have conspired to
drastically lower education standards as access has increased
to the system's lower levels. At the higher levels, the two
functioning universities have fees that are prohibitive for
most Malawians, and entry requirements are more stringent
than they were 10 years ago. Given the ravages of HIV/AIDS,
the needs for skilled workers at all levels have only
increased in the meantime.


20. (SBU) As for agriculture, Malawi today has more
difficulty feeding itself than it did in 1994. Much of the
decline in food security stems from low productivity, a
rapidly rising population, environmental and soil
degradation, and the collapse of agricultural extension
programs. As most Malawians work the land, and many face a
yearly "hungry season," the agriculture sector has been a key
failure in the past ten years, retarding development in other
areas. For some, it has even led to nostalgia for the
certainties of the Banda era.

Health, Corruption, and other Dangers
--------------

21. (SBU) Malawi clearly faces a number of significant
challenges, but it is also clear that it has made progress,
albeit slowly, in consolidating its democracy over the past
decade. The largest threats to those gains are HIV/AIDS and
corruption. The biggest open question is what will happen
with soon-to-be former President Muluzi.


22. (SBU) The potential for HIV/AIDS to reverse gains in
developing countries is well-documented. In Malawi's case,
the general HIV prevalence is 14.4%, 50% of the army is
reported to be infected, and thousands of vital civil
servants -- such as police officers, teachers, nurses, and
parliamentarians -- are dying. The country's security,
political stability, and economic future are at stake.
Malawi was in the first tranche of recipients from the Global
Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and the $196
million committed by the Global Fund, which has started to
trickle in, will no doubt eventually bring some relief. The
money is just a down payment, though, on the enormous costs
associated with prevention and care. The USG's continued,
aggressive engagement on HIV/AIDS will make a significant
humanitarian difference while supporting our long-term goals
of democratic and economic development.


23. (SBU) Corruption also poses a substantial and growing
threat. Though not yet in the league of Nigeria or Cameroon,
Malawi is faced with a rise in both official and petty graft.
Its ratings from Transparency International have dropped,
allegations of malfeasance played a role in Denmark's 2002
breaking-off of multi-million dollar education and health
programs, and corruption is a key concern for Malawi's
potential access to Millennium Challenge Account funding.
For Malawi's democratic development, the phenomenon has two
particularly corrosive traits: fraud is rampant in the
procurement, sale, and distribution of maize; and the
shenanigans start from the very top.


24. (SBU) The fraud surrounding the purchase and sale of
maize is notable because maize is a staple of both diet and
politics in Malawi. It is heavily subsidized; it is a large
line item in the budget; and, notably, it is distributed at
political rallies. At least five separate investigations
into a series of maize scandals have been initiated in the
past three years, yet the results of all have been kept from
the public. It is widely understood in the diplomatic
community that the tarnished include government ministers,
parliamentarians, and prominent business people. The scale
of the theft, much of which has come during food shortages,
has been grand, running into the tens of millions of dollars.



25. (SBU) It would be easy for an opposition government --
or a hand-picked successor looking for a way to establish his
independence -- to launch into a series of corruption
investigations and trials in the post-Muluzi period. Whether
maize or other corruption trials are brought forward or are
suppressed, whether due process (versus political
retribution) characterizes the proceedings, and how the
public perceives those developments will all be important
questions for determining which path Malawi's democracy is
following. Perhaps most important will be whether President
Muluzi finds himself in court.


26. (SBU) President Muluzi entered office with a trading
firm that was nearly bankrupt, two tobacco farms, and three
houses in Blantyre. He will leave a far, far richer man --
some say the richest man in the country. Poor
record-keeping, a system in which business interests can be
easily hidden, and weak disclosure regulations keep the truth
in the dark, but he is believed to own or have a major
interest in a trading firm, sugar distributors, several
farms, several houses, a real estate development corporation,
a chain of grocery stores, a chain of gas stations, a major
office complex now leased to the Malawi Revenue Authority, a
national fertilizer supply chain, a few smaller office and
shopping complexes, a professional soccer team, a mining
firm, a radio station, and an international transport and
trucking company. He is the head of the quasi-public Bakili
Muluzi Institute, and has started an eponymous HIV/AIDS
foundation (which has already received, by questionable
means, $50,000 in donor money). He has also announced plans
to open a self-financed investment bank and a television
station. His tentacles now touch much of Malawi's small
economy.

Whither Muluzi, Whither Malawi?
--------------

27. (SBU) Although he has stated publicly that he will tend
to his businesses after stepping down from the presidency,
President Muluzi will be a force in Malawi's politics for
years to come. He is an active sixty-one year old, and he
has retained the Chairmanship of the United Democratic Front
for himself (until now it has been held by the president).
His older, hand-picked successor Bingu wa Mutharika (the
current front-runner in the elections) owes his political
standing to Muluzi, and Muluzi is legally eligible to run
again for president in 2009. Clearly, the outcome of this
month's elections, and the successor government's
relationship with Muluzi, will be crucial for Malawi's next
decade of democratic development.


28. (SBU) More than Muluzi will matter, though. All of the
current presidential candidates came of age under
President-for-Life Banda, and all were members of Banda's
Malawi Congress Party. All survived Banda's rough brand of
politics, but not all will have political lives beyond these
elections. 2004 will likely be John Tembo's and Gwanda
Chakuamba's last shot at the presidency, and their departure
from the political scene opens the possibility of another
significant evolution. The living memory, and imprint, of
Banda recedes.


29. (SBU) Ten years ago, there was euphoria at the birth of
multi-party democracy. Progress has been slower than hoped,
and more uneven, but there has been progress nonetheless.
Malawi's poverty is so crushing, though, that many of the
political and democratic gains cannot be enjoyed by the
average citizen. If the economy can be turned around,
Malawians will be in a better position to appreciate -- and
build upon -- the gains that have been made over the past
decade.
BROWNING