MALAWI TO MUDDLE THROUGH ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000375

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EFIN PINR MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI TO MUDDLE THROUGH ELECTIONS

REF: A. 03 LILONGWE 1202


B. LILONGWE 333

C. LILONGWE 326

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) confirmed on May
5 that presidential and parliamentary elections will take
place on May 18 in spite of continuing difficulties with the
voters' roll, a flawed verification process, and a
significant funding gap. On the political scene, a
last-ditch clergy-led attempt at uniting the opposition to
field a single presidential candidate was unsuccessful. The
Mgwirizano Coalition presidential candidate Gwanda
Chakuamba's campaign is gaining steam, as criticism mounts
against front-runner Bingu wa Mutharika of the ruling United
Democratic Front (UDF). While the MEC is likely to muddle
through the elections, the run-up to polling day has been
marred by inequitable access to the state-owned media. In
addition, some voters may be disenfranchised by the MEC's
administrative incompetence. END SUMMARY.

THE LAST DONOR-MEC MEETING
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2. (SBU) Donor Chiefs of Missions and the Malawi Electoral
Commission (MEC) met on May 5 to discuss final election
preparations, the voters' roll verification process, and
continued problems with the budget. The MEC was represented
by Chair Justice James Kalaile and Chief Elections Officer
Roosevelt Gondwe.

A FLAWED VERIFICATION PROCESS AND ITS REMEDY
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3. (SBU) Gondwe conceded that the verification process, which
was supposed to allow voters and new registrants to confirm
that their information had been properly updated, "was not a
successful exercise." He concluded there was low voter
turnout because people knew the roster available in voting
centers was the one from the 1999 elections, not an updated
version. Recognizing that the process failed, Gondwe said
the updated, computerized rosters would be distributed to
voting centers on May 11 and would be available for
inspection until polling day. The preparation of the updated
roster, Gondwe said, has been greatly expedited by new
computer support recently brought in from South Africa. No
provisions have been made, however, to deal with the at least
one million extra names on the voters' roll (reftel C).

A BUDGET WITHOUT BUCKS
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4. (SBU) Kalaile confirmed that the elections budget remains
USD 18.4 million. He, however, noted that new expenditures
of USD 105,000 for South African computer support and USD
500,000 for political party monitoring training were not
reflected in the current budget. Representatives from the
Ministry of Finance have "verbally committed" to pay for the
computer support, but there is still USD 3.5 to 4 million in
expected spending beyond MEC resources. The GOM again
appealed to the donors to provide additional financial
support, but all -- again -- declined to do so. Speaking
about the funding gap, Kalaile told poloff the GOM "will just
have to run a deficit that will be made up in next year's
budget."

MULUZI'S ALLEGATIONS AGAINST EU OBSERVERS "BASELESS"
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5. (SBU) Kalaile characterized as "baseless" President
Muluzi's accusations that the EU Observer Team had been
"decampaigning" the UDF government (reftel B). Upon hearing
the President's allegations, Kalaile said the MEC made
inquires into the situation and "found no evidence" of
improper behavior by the EU Observers.

A FINAL, FAILED ATTEMPT AT OPPOSITION UNIFICATION
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6. (SBU) In a last-ditch attempt to persuade opposition
parties to field one presidential candidate, church leaders
hosted April 26-27 talks among the National Democratic
Alliance's (NDA) Brown Mpinganjira, Malawi Congress Party's
(MCP) John Tembo, independent presidential candidate Justin
Malewezi, and the Mgwirizano Coalition led by Gwanda
Chakuamba. Although the opposition leaders were unable to
agree to a unified ticket, they released a joint statement
calling on Kalaile to correct the voters' roll, implement a
proper verification process, stop the UDF from using public
resources in its campaign, and rectify the state-owned
media's bias in favor of the ruling UDF. The statement
demanded that Kalaile "address these concerns within seven
days or he should resign to allow a more capable person to
preside over the coming elections." (COMMENT: Although the
call for Kalaile's resignation was hyperbolic, the concerns
expressed are genuine. The MEC's decision to make the
voters' roll available in voting centers on May 11, which has
not yet been publicly announced, may be a result of the
opposition leaders' press statement.)
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
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7. (SBU) Gwanda Chakuamba's presidential campaign as the
Mgwirizano Coalition presidential candidate has gained
momentum. Independent newspapers and public polls indicate
that Chakuamba is running a strong campaign. Chakuamba's
recent gains, however, have not extended to the Mgwirizano
Coalition parliamentary candidates, who remain disorganized
and largely loyal to their respective parties rather than to
the Coalition.


8. (SBU) While Chakuamba's campaign is gaining steam, Bingu
wa Mutharika and the ruling UDF have come under greater
scrutiny after a high-level COMESA report surfaced about
Mutharika's 1997 firing from the position of COMESA Secretary
General. The report details misuse of funds, leadership
incompetence, and a GOM-orchestrated sack. While Mutharika's
departure from COMESA has been publicly known since Mutharika
was selected as the UDF's presidential candidate, it has only
recently become a major campaign issue.
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COMMENT
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PROSPECTS OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS
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9. (C) It is clear that the fairness of the electoral process
has been compromised by inequitable access to the state-owned
media. In addition, logistical problems with the
administration of the vote, and the more than one million
extra names on the voters' roll could potentially lead to
voting fraud. While Malawians may end up accepting the
elections, these concerns cannot be ignored in assessing the
elections' credibility.


10. (C) The sudden declaration that the elections will occur
on May 18, which two weeks ago was declared an impossible
task, is likely a political decision made due to the recent
success of Chakuamba's campaign and the growing questions
about Mutharika. With Mutharika's superior access to
resources and the state-owned media, however, the election is
still his to lose. END COMMENT.
BROWNING