FURTHER PRE-ELECTION FRAGMENTATION IN THE

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000028

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: FURTHER PRE-ELECTION FRAGMENTATION IN THE
OPPOSITION

REF: A. 03 LILONGWE 449


B. 03 LILONGWE 938


1. (SBU) Malawi Congress Party (MCP) vice president Gwanda
Chakuamba resigned from the leading opposition party and
formed the Republican Party on January 8. After a shaky
seven-month marriage of convenience with MCP president and
personal nemesis John Tembo (ref B),Chakuamba announced his
departure was a result of "public demands" that he form a
party of his own. Tembo, apparently surprised by Chakuamba's
decision, has not yet publicly commented.


2. (U) Chakuamba's defection came 10 days after former MCP
treasurer Hetherwick Ntaba left the MCP to form his own
party, New Congress for Democracy (NCD). Ntaba, who is
interim president of the party, told a press conference on
December 28 that he formed the party because of political
difficulties he was facing with the MCP's leadership. (NOTE:
The once faithful confidant of Tembo, Ntaba has had
difficulties in the MCP since he attempted to run for the
party's presidency at the April 2003 convention per ref A.
Recently Ntaba, who has been accused of collusion with the
ruling United Democratic Front and President Muluzi, was
suspended from the MCP's National Executive Committee.)

COMMENT
--------------

3. (SBU) Ntaba is popular among a very small group of urban
technocrats in the MCP, most of whom are unlikely to leave
the patronage system and prestige of an established party.
His departure will have little real effect on the MCP, and
his only chances for continued political influence are
through a coalition with other opposition parties or, if
rumors be true, through further collusion with the UDF and
Muluzi. Chakuamba, on the other hand, has controlled a
faction of roughly half of the MCP membership. His
departure, while not surprising, will mean major electoral
and party recalculations for the MCP. Without Chakuamba's
support (and that of his followers),the MCP is no longer the
leading opposition party; it is simply an opposition party
among many others.


4. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED. With the elections four months
away, the next couple of weeks will be decisive in forming
the opposition ballot. It remains plausible that a
Kenya-like situation occurs where the majority of the
opposition parties coalesce to field a single presidential
candidate and to share parliamentary seats -- which
opposition parties contend will happen. With a February 25
deadline on nomination of presidential candidates, serious
negotiation (along with serious compromises) will have to
occur rather quickly among the various opposition party
leaders. However, considering the opposition's previous
failures to work together, a Zambia-like scenario is also
possible with divisions among numerous opposition parties
allowing the ruling UDF to maintain power with a fairly low
percentage of votes. END COMMENT.
BROWNING