Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04LAGOS540
2004-03-12 06:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

DELTA VIOLENCE ON RISE, ELECTIONS SUSPENDED

Tags:  KDEM PHUM PGOV PINS PINR ASEC EPET NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000540 

SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON PASS AFRICA WATCHERS
DIA/J2 PASS GHAYES
ENERGY PASS CGUY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2014
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV PINS PINR ASEC EPET NI
SUBJECT: DELTA VIOLENCE ON RISE, ELECTIONS SUSPENDED

REF: (A) LAGOS 523 (B) LAGOS 192 (C) 2003 LAGOS 2535

Classified By: Classified by: Political Chief Diane Shelby for reasons
1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000540

SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON PASS AFRICA WATCHERS
DIA/J2 PASS GHAYES
ENERGY PASS CGUY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2014
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV PINS PINR ASEC EPET NI
SUBJECT: DELTA VIOLENCE ON RISE, ELECTIONS SUSPENDED

REF: (A) LAGOS 523 (B) LAGOS 192 (C) 2003 LAGOS 2535

Classified By: Classified by: Political Chief Diane Shelby for reasons
1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The rate and level of violence in the
Niger Delta has been increasing in recent weeks (ref A).
Plans for March 27 elections in several key Local Government
Areas (LGA) have been suspended, fueling tension between
ethnic groups in the region. Meanwhile, thousands of
internally displaced Itsekiri are agitating for a return to
their homes as their living conditions steadily worsen.
Signs of preparations for renewed conflict between Ijaw and
Itsekiri in the riverine areas are reported. If ethnic
conflict erupts, the military's reaction is unpredictable as
troops are increasingly weary of their Delta deployment and
pressure for a solution is mounting on all sides. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
ITSEKIRIS TO RESIST ELECTION POSTPONEMENT
--------------


2. (SBU) Local Government Area (LGA) elections are scheduled
nationwide for March 27. The Delta State Government has
postponed elections in Warri North, Warri South, and Warri
Southwest LGAs, which have seen several spates of violence in
the last seven years between rival Ijaw and Itsekiri ethnic
groups contesting land access, oil revenues, and political
power. Attempts to improve relations through peace dialogues
have produced mixed results. Although support for
NGO-organized peace dialogues is strong (ref B),ethnic
groups recently pulled out of the Delta State Government's
Inter-Ethnic Dialogue. Delta State Governor James Ibori,
whose oft-trumpeted "peace plan" to quell violence in the
state is fizzling, championed the dialogue. The dialogue
ended when the state government, claiming that all parties
were in agreement, unilaterally postponed LGA elections in
and around Warri to prevent violence.


3. (C) Daniel Reyenieju, President of the Itsekiri National

Youth Congress, on March 8 told POLOFF the Itsekiri oppose
the election postponement and will fight the decision in the
courts. (Note: In the Nigerian context, youths are young and
middle-aged men. End Note.) Reyenieju, along with other
prominent Ijaw and Itsekiri elders and youth leaders, had
participated in the Inter-Ethnic Dialogue. According to
Reyenieju, a discussion about local elections never took
place nor was agreed upon by the Itsekiri. Talks broke down
and the Itsekiri walked out.


4. (C) Reyenieju was dismayed, frustrated, and angry over
the postponement of elections. He fears that when elections
do take place, Ijaws will flood the LGAs with non-residents
in a bid to rig the outcome. Moreover, he is at odds with
the state government's reasoning to postpone elections to
avoid an escalation of violence. Violence always accompanies
elections in Nigeria, he explained, and stressed that
tensions were much greater and violence more commonplace when
Ibori and President Olusegun Obasanjo were up for election in
April 2003. Ibori, a member of the President's ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP),received Itsekiri support in
his election bid despite, Reyenieju emphatically said, the
displacement of thousands from the Benin River and the
burning of Koko, one of the most heavily populated Itsekiri
villages, the day before the election. Since March 2003,
Reyenieju pointed out that several Ijaw militant youths have
been appointed as Special Assistants to the Governor -- a
position that brings access to the governor and money.

--------------
IJAW SUPPORT ELECTION POSTPONEMENT
--------------


5. (C) Daniel Ekpide, Secretar of the Federated Niger Delta
Ijaw Communities (FDIC),told POLOFF on March 4 that the
election pstponement showed a "serious desire by the state
government
resolve issues." The Ijaw have beenagitating
for greater political representation wthin the LGAs since

1997. In 1997, the Warri Southwest LGA seat was transferred
from an Ijaw villge to an Itsekiri village by the state
governmen, sparking intense violence. Each of the three
GAs is divided into 10 wards. In each of these LGAs, the
Itsekiri hold the plurality of wards and, therefore, control
the LGA chairman and chancelorships. As a result, claims of
political disenfranchisement have fueled Ijaw demands for
ward redistricting and an increase in the number of wards
within the LGA. Ekpide has called for ward redistricting
based on the most recent 1991 population census, which, he
contends, shows the Ijaw are more populous in the region.


6. (C) Contrary to reports on March 10 (refA),Ekpide
characterized Warri as calm, claiming there was no tension
within the riverine Ijaw areas. He stated the Ijaw were
keeping "hush," despite recent attacks by the Itsekiri --
attacks that each group has blamed on the other. Relations
with the JTF and police were also categorized as good,
despite sporadic skirmishes. He said the Ijaw were
cooperating with state government- and NGO-led peace
dialogues and blamed the slowing progress on the Itsekiri.
Ekpide further described the distressed state of the Ijaw
within the riverine area and found fault with the state
government for the lack of basic health and education
services.

--------------
THE DELTA'S INTERNALLY DISPLACED
--------------


7. (U) The Nigerian Commission for Refugees reports that
800,000 Nigerians are internally displaced nation-wide due to
communal violence, creating volatile pockets throughout
Nigeria. In Delta State, 9,000 Itsekiri have been displaced
from their homes along the Benin River, and 1,000 Ijaw have
fled their homes in Warri Southwest LGA. Internally
displaced persons (IDPs) in Delta State have not received
humanitarian aid from the GON, but have instead relied on a
$50,000 grant from the USG implemented by the International
Foundation for Education and Self-Help (IFESH). Displaced
for almost a year and with living conditions steadily
deteriorating, the IDPs are frustrated and edgy. Donor
fatigue has set in among their financial supporters. The
most acute is the 9,000 Itsekiri IDPs living in and around
the Urhobo city of Sapele. Reyenieju reports that children
have not been attending school, young girls are forced into
prostitution, young men have become criminals, and the weak
and elderly are dying (ref C).


8. (SBU) Reyenieju claims the USG has been "lazy" in
comparison to its previous aid efforts in the region.
Appreciative of past support, he advocates for continued aid,
but prefers a longer-term solution and requested that the USG
petition the GON to enable IDPs to return to their homes.
Ekpide also stated conditions were worsening for Ijaw IDPs in
the region. (Note: The USG has been active in the Delta
through its initial aid to the IDPs, the funding of two peace
dialogues implemented by NGOs, and the recent agreement by
Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum and USAID to begin a cassava
production program. POLOFF emphasized these programs to
Reyenieju, but with the exception of the joint Shell-USAID
program, the others are nearing completion and future funding
has not yet been identified. End note.)

--------------
IMMINENT VIOLENCE NEAR ESCRAVOS?
--------------


9. (C) David Beddow, Security Coordinator for Chevron
Nigeria Ltd's (CNL) Escravos transfer terminal and tank farm,
told ECONOFF on March 8 that "an offensive by the Itsekiri
could be imminent." Beddow believes attacks will only be
delayed due to lack of fuel and boats. In mid-February, CNL
security staff reported to ECONOFF that a group of Ijaw
youths in speedboats harassed nearby Itsekiri villages within
sight of Escravos. The youths dressed in warrior white,
waved white flags and placed one on an oil jetty farther up
the Escravos River. During the wave of violence that spread
through the Delta swamps in March 2003, workers at the
Escravos terminal noted that Ijaw attack parties wore white
and displayed white flags during their attacks on Itsekiri
villages.


10. (C) Reyenieju confirmed the incident to POLOFF and said
the flag staking was symbolic to show that the Ijaw were now
claiming the land. When asked if the Itsekiri were readying
themselves for defense or attack, Reyenieju claimed that the
Itsekiri would only defend themselves. He stated he did not
see any signs of renewed violence in the creeks, claiming
that the Itsekiri had been chased from their homes and now
only existed in large numbers in and around Escravos.


11. (C) The Escravos terminal, a joint venture of
ChevronTexaco and the GON, is protected by approximately 200
soldiers of the Joint Task Force, "Operation Restore Hope,"
which was sent to the region in August 2003 to restore order
in the Warri area. Beddow told ECONOFF that CNL is not
taking any action as a result of their concerns of increased
violence; nor does he anticipate that JTF forces would engage
in "inter-community battles." CNL has recently started a
slow return to their production facilities in the surrounding
riverine area, receiving JTF escorts and protection for their
flow stations and their supply transports (septel).


12. (C) Brigadier General Elias Zamani, Commanding Officer
of the JTF, told POLOFF on March 8 that rumors of increased
violence exist, but the JTF is prepared to maintain the
"fragile peace" and implement the decision of the Delta State
Government to postpone LGA elections. He stressed that the
right of the people to participate in the electoral process
should not be abridged, but contended the postponement was in
the best interest of peace. In general, Zamani characterized
the situation in the Delta as suffering from "normal
skirmishes," but that the JTF was containing violence, as
opposed to controlling it. Zamani said he had no fears of
renewed kidnappings, referring to the common practice of
abducting oil company employees and contractors for ransom.


13. (C) As part of the Inter-Ethnic Dialogue, the Delta State
Government promised to return the Itsekiri IDPs to their
homes along the Benin River. The Itsekiri welcome the
initiative, pending a security guarantee. BG Zamani told
POLOFF that the JTF staff has drafted a security plan and
will work together with the Delta State Government. Yet, no
movement on the plan has been seen. Reyenieju has little
confidence that either can produce what they have been
promised. Enraged, Reyenieju stated his only enemy was the
Delta State Government whom he chided for not providing basic
social services or showing a sincere desire to address the
root causes of the conflict. He renewed his claims that the
Itsekiri would not go on the offensive or "transfer its anger
with the government onto other groups," but would deal
directly with the state government on these issues.


14. (C) COMMENT: The JTF does not have the capability to
patrol and maintain security in the riverine area. Instead
it has focused on securing oil installations, selectively
limiting illegal bunkering activity off its coast through the
use of USG-gifted buoy tenders, and keeping peace in the city
of Warri. This situation on the ground makes it unlikely the
Itsekiri will safely return to the Benin River in the near
future. The postponement of the LGA elections is a win for
the Ijaw, and may signal concessions from the Delta State
Government in their favor. Ijaw youths have been folded into
the state government by Governor Ibori, from which they
appear to have benefited financially. Elsewhere in Delta
State, people seem apathetic towards the LGA elections, as
all have accepted that the PDP candidates will win.


15. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. Ibori's motives, however, are
unclear. It is uncertain whether he is keeping troublemakers
easily accessible and manipulated, or whether the youths, who
acted as hired thugs during the previous elections and now
facilitate illegal bunkering, are being rewarded for their
past and current cooperation. What cannot be ignored is the
growing dissatisfaction with the status quo by the common
Ijaw and Itsekiri living in the riverine area, who may not be
easily controlled or manipulated from Warri. Claims by both
sides that neither will initiate attacks seem hollow,
especially given reports of provision hoarding.


16. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. The reaction of the JTF is
another wildcard. Even though stationed in large number at
the Escravos Terminal, the JTF does not have a history of
engaging unless their facilities are directly threatened.
But recent clashes between military forces and residents of
Warri suggest some troops have reached a breaking-point based
on fatigue, impatience, or boredom (ref A). Candid comments
to ConGen Officers by commanders showing concern over the
potential backlash from the international community for any
collateral damage inflicted on civilians may be lessening in
credibility as the stalemate in the Delta drags on.
Commanders may be faced with increased pressure from Abuja to
take more aggressive action, utilizing unruly, poorly
trained, and ill-equipped troops who can become unmanageable
when responding to a threat or crisis
HINSON-JONES