NIGERIA: ANAMBRA CONTINUES TO ROIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002353

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2009
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANAMBRA CONTINUES TO ROIL

REF: A. LAGOS 2279


B. LAGOS 2288

C. LAGOS 2290

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: As a cavalcade of Nigerian dignitaries
gathered in Anambra for the funeral of Chief Asika -- the
former administrator following the Biafran war -- the crisis
in the state continued to roil. Anambra Governor Ngige made
cameo appearances in the state during the past several days
before returning to Abuja Sunday night to continue
discussions with nemesis Chris Uba this week (refs a and b).
Ngige told Polchief that although he should not have to
negotiate with an "illiterate thug" he was prepared to
compromise for the sake of peace; some issues, however, were
deal-breakers.


2. (C) Summary Cont'd: Ngige implored the USG to convince
President Obasanjo to stop backing Uba, or at the very least,
to fully restore his security detail. Although support for
Ngige is not very strong because most Anambrans realize he
came to office on the wings of a fraudulent election, they
are even more repulsed by Uba's "gangsterism." A neighboring
Southeast Deputy Governor told Polchief that only Obasanjo
could end to the crisis. The question is will he? End
Summary.

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Ngige: Yes to Compromise, but My Wife is Non-Negotiable
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3. (C) Polchief traveled to Onitsha, Anambra to attend to
funeral of Chief Asika, former administrator of the region
following the Biafran war. Luminaries from throughout the
country were present including former head of state Gowon.
Anambra State Governor Ngige was conspicuously absent for
most of the ceremony, arriving from Abuja only after most
dignitaries had departed. Polchief later met with Ngige in
his capital Awka On the way, we stopped to see one of the
state-owned buildings that had been burned the previous week
by the armed bands purportedly suborned by Chris Uba (ref a).


4. (C) Asked how the Abuja talks with Chris Uba were
progressing, Ngige alternated between outrage and pragmatism.
Ngige said that he should not have to face Uba at all. Uba
is a private person and an illiterate thug to boot.
President Obasanjo is on record saying he wants to end
corrupt practices in Nigeria; he should start with Chris Uba,
Ngige argued.


5. (C) However, Ngige said he would "sacrifice" for the
sake of peace. Ngige admitted that Uba "helped" him win the
elections but said the assistance rendered did not tally with
Uba's outrageous compensation claims. Specifically, Ngige
said he was prepared to concede to Uba's faction the state
PDP chairmanship and six commissioner slots. He was also
prepared to negotiate with Uba the party list for the
scheduled December 18 local level elections -- though with
the burning of the State Independent Electoral Commission,
Ngige now thought this date no longer realistic. Finally,
Ngige intimated he would be willing to make a "reasonable"
monthly payment to Uba.


6. (C) Ngige said that there were some issues, most notably
the position of deputy governor, which were non-negotiable.
Ngige said, "Uba is greedy. I am prepared to compromise but
if someone asks you to negotiate over your wife, then you get
up from the table." (Note: The Uba/Ngige talks being held
under the aegis of the Presidential Peace Committee
established last week were scheduled to resume the evening of
Sunday, November 21. However, they were postponed by
Committee Chair, Ebonyi Governor Egwu to the evening of
Monday, November 22. End Note.)


7. (C) Ngige implored the USG to "talk to" Obasanjo. Local
allies could not help, he insisted. Ideally, the president
would jettison Uba, but Ngige acknowledged this was unlikely.
Asked to speculate why the President had failed to restrain
Uba given the national embarrassment Anambra has become,
Ngige said Andy Uba, the President's special adviser and
elder brother to Chris, wanted to be Anambra governor. If
Anambra became ungovernable and the president had to declare
a state of emergency, this would open the door for Andy,
Ngige proffered.


8. (C) Ngige asked that we pressure Obasanjo to fully
restore his security detail and that of the State House
Assembly members. (Note: The Speaker of the House and
numerous other high-ranking state officials remain in hiding.
reftels. End Note.) Ngige claimed to have only four
policemen dedicated to him. This level of support, Ngige
said, was insufficient to safeguard against attack.
Moreover, he argued, it sent the "wrong signal" to Uba's
faction. (Comment: The national newspapers have been
chocked full of allegations from Ngige's camp that Uba has a
hit-list and Ngige is at the top of it. These stories, which
Ngige also relayed to polchief, contain a fair amount of
hyperbole. For example, Uba and by extension the president
are accused of creating Sudan-style "janjaweed" in Anambra.
While the language is clearly sensationalist, the alleged
threats against Ngige cannot be dismissed given the history
between the two men. End Comment).

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Ordinary Anambrans Don't Exactly Rally
to Ngige, But Support Him Over Uba
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9. (C) As armed bands were marauding through Anambra burning
state buildings, including the governor's residence, most
Anambrans kept their heads low. Ngige claimed this was
because he issued instructions that people not retaliate so
as not to give Obasanjo pretext for declaring a state of
emergency. However, our contacts said the lack of a public
protest was the offspring of common sense. Most people did
not want to get caught in the mayhem. In addition, there was
a sense that this was not their fight. Ohaneze Ndigbo, the
largest pan-Igbo political/social group, has issued a
statement condemning the arsons, but stopping short of fully
endorsing Ngige. A traditional chief told polchief that an
Igbo council of elders plans to meet soon and it too will
issue a statement, along the same lines. The chief said that
while some Anambrans continue to have issues with the
fraudulent way in which Ngige came to power, this was not the
way to remove him.


10. (C) Many contacts said they hoped the on-going All
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) court case would decide the
governorship definitively in favor of APGA candidate Peter
Obi. In the meantime, however, Ngige was the recognized
governor and he should not be removed by Uba's "gangsterism."
Some contacts noted that they had been impressed with Ngige's
governance, saying it was as if Ngige were out to prove a
point.

(Comment: APGA is widely believed to have won the 2003
elections (ref c). Ngige and other state officials appeared
unconcerned by Obi's court case, however. The State
Secretary General told polchief that the case would drag on

SIPDIS
until at least 2007, since Ngige's lawyers intended to call
over 400 witnesses. End Comment.)

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Enugu Deputy Governor: Only Obasanjo Can End Crisis
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11. (C) Enugu State Deputy Governor Chief Itanyi told
polchief that most of the southeast governors supported Ngige
but were vocally reticent for fear of angering Obasanjo.
Personally, Itanyi felt that the southeast governors should
stand firm against Uba, since his shenanigans in Anambra
could potentially disrupt the entire subregion if commerce is
disrupted and Anambrans are forced to seek refuge from the
violence in neighboring states. However, influential
political leaders have been watching the Anambra crisis
unfold from the sidelines, Itanyi said. Despite seeing Ngige
as the lesser of two evils in his battle with Uba, most feel
this is one dispute from which they should steer clear.
Itanyi dismissed Ebonyi Governor Egwu's prospects of
brokering a lasting peace between Ngige and Uba. A deal
mediated by Egwu would be ephemeral, Egwu suggested. Egwu
said only President Obasanjo could end the crisis -- the
question is does he want to?

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Comment
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12. (C) The irony of having stolen the elections and then
insisting that the USG help maintain that post in the name of
"democracy" appears to be lost on Ngige. That said, Uba's
violent, strong-arm tactics may be even more unconscionable.
Obasanjo could do himself, Anambra, and Nigeria a big favor
if he were to ensure that the court case examining the 2003
elections in Anambra is fair and transparent. This could be
the best vindication of democracy in troubled Anambra. Short
of this, most Anambrans hope that ultimately Obasanjo will
intervene to rein in Uba and restore a semblance of order in
Anambra. However, from our vantage point in Lagos, it does
not appear that Obasanjo will step into the morass unless his
own fortunes become jeopardized or he is prodded to take
action.
BROWNE