NIGERIA: POLITICAL UPDATE FROM THE SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002290

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2009
TAGS: PREL KDEM NI PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL UPDATE FROM THE SOUTH

REF: A. LAGOS 2288


B. LAGOS 2277

C. LAGOS 2227

Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: Abia State Governor Kalu has announced that
he will run for President in 2007. Kalu is being partially
financed by VP Atiku, who likely is using the abrasive
Southeastern governor as a stalking horse. Meanwhile,
Senator Nzeribe is bankrolling the very long-shot
presidential campaign of Governor Udenwa of Imo State --
placing these two Igbo governors on a collision course.
According to sources, Nzeribe wants to occupy the Imo
Governor's mansion in 2007. Lagos State Governor Tinubu and
the South West Chairman of the People's Democratic Party
(PDP) George continue to inveigh the other, with George
accusing Tinubu of instigating the planned November 16
national labor strike to embarrass President Obasanjo.
Tinubu has vehemently denied George's allegation. Privately
Tinubu told us he would maintain law and order in Lagos
during the strike, despite disagreeing with Obasanjo's
deregulation policy. The All People's Grand Alliance (APGA)
is hopeful (but perhaps not very realistic) that
soon-to-be-concluded court cases disputing the 2003
gubernatorial races in Enugu and Anambra states will redound
to the party's benefit. End Summary.

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Igbo Governors Stake Claims for 2007 Presidency
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2. (C) The flamboyant governor of Abia State, Orji Kalu, has
announced publicly his intention to seek the 2007 PDP
presidential nomination. As ambitious as he is bombastic,
Kalu hopes to capitalize on the incessant agitation in the
Southeast for an Igbo presidential candidate. By seeking the
mantle, he also hopes to refurbish his status as an upcoming
youthful Igbo leader. This image has been undermined by a
skein of scandals plaguing Kalu's second term and by the
rising popularity of the Movement for the Actualization of
the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and APGA in the
Southeast -- two groups that also lay claim to the political
voice of the Igbo. Sources tell us that Kalu has been
telephoning many of the Nigeria's political literati
informing them of his plans. Kalu has not been completely
discreet regarding his backing, intimating to more than one
person that VP Atiku is helping to finance his campaign.

(Comment: If Kalu's claim concerning Atiku is true, Atiku is
playing one of several possible versions of a cynical, if
astute, political game. Atiku may be using Kalu as a
diversion to shift President Obasanjo's attention away from
Atiku and toward the irascible Kalu who the President
probably dislikes more than he dislikes VP Atiku. If this is
the case, Kalu may be too taken with himself to induce that
he is an expendable weapon in Atiku's armory. Alternatively,
Kalu and Atiku could have reached a gentleman's agreement
whereby Kalu agreed to be the battering ram with the
understanding that should Atiku be offered a presidential
slot on the party ticket, Kalu would be offered the VP
position. The fault in that plan is that neither actor is a
gentleman and such an agreement would crumble at the
slightest instance that it no longer served one of the
player's optimal interests. End Comment.)


3. (C) Meanwhile, Igbo sources indicate that millionaire
senator Arthur Nzeribe is bankrolling the long-shot
presidential aspirations of Imo State Governor Udenwa.
Nzeribe's actions are not borne of affection for the Imo
governor. The crafty Nzeribe is known to be pining to occupy
the governor's mansion in Owerri, capital of Imo. By
dangling a picture of the presidential mansion in front of
the taciturn Udenwa Nzeribe hopes Udenwa will turn the keys
to Imo over to him in 2007.

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Lagos State Governor and PDP SW Chairman In War of Words;
Governor Denies Agitating for National Strike
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Over the past couple of weeks, the local press has
been replete with recriminations between Lagos State Governor
Ahmed Tinubu and PDP SW Chairman Bode George, a staunch
Obasanjo ally. George has gone so far as to accuse Tinubu of
bankrolling the scheduled November 16 national strike in an
effort to embarrass Obasanjo's administration. George has
also threatened to "deal with" Tinubu. Tinubu has vehemently
denied George's allegation and has said that he takes neither
kindly nor lightly George's threats. (Comment: George has a
reputation of political rough-housing. While nothing is
proven, his critics link him to many of the incidents of
violence in the Southwest against Obasanjo's political
opponents. End Comment.)


5. (C) Tinubu told the Consul General the last thing he
wanted was violence to occur in Lagos as a result of the
strike. Not only would it result in potential loss of life
or limb, it would be injurious to business investment.
Moreover, he did not want to give Obasanjo a pretext to
intervene in Lagos. Consequently Tinubu said he would do all
that he could to ensure that things did not "get out of
control" during the strike. He said that he had spoken with
the police and instructed them not to behave too
aggressively. He also said he talked to student leaders and
the market women's association, in which his mother wields
significant influence. Tinubu criticized Obasanjo's method
of fuel price deregulation, arguing that instead of creating
a "palliative committee" after-the-fact, Obasanjo, using
excess oil revenues, should have provided an economic
stimulus package contemporaneous to the price increase, which
would have better mitigated the hardships resulting from the
price hike.


6. (C) Overall, Tinubu characterized Obasanjo as a "poor
strategist." The president, he said, should have moved to
solidify a southern base across party lines. This would have
isolated his northern rivals -- the real threat. However,
since the President is incapable of tolerating and
incorporating dissenting viewpoints, the south is more
fractured than ever, with the exception that most people are
now against Obasanjo, Tinubu said. Tinubu confirmed that he
and VP Atiku were talking about "their future." All options
are open, he said. Tinubu also believed that the President
was still toying with a third term option (reftels).

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Courts to give justice to APGA?
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7. (C) Peter Obi, the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)
candidate believed to have won the 2003 Anambra gubernatorial
race told us the court case contesting the election results
is progressing well. Obi has also been a frequent flyer to
Abuja lately where he is said have had discussions with
millionaire businessman Chris Uba. Uba is widely believed to
have financed the violence that engulfed Anambra state last
week, which resulted in the razing of numerous prominent
government facilities, including the governor's mansion. (ref
B) It is unlikely that Uba would have engaged in such a
brazen gambit just to usher Obi into the governor's mansion
-- at least not yet. Uba and other allied kingmakers are
probably interested in someone more pliant than the
independent-minded Obi.


8. (C) According to an APGA insider who lives in Enugu, the
State Security Service (SSS) reportedly stopped Enugu State
Governor Nnamani at the Abuja airport as he was attempting to
leave the country with five - seven million dollars. The
funds were handed over to President Obasanjo who read Nnamani
the riot act. This incident may influence the already
on-going court case protesting the 2003 elections in Enugu.
APGA is also believed to have been the legitimate winner in
that state.
BROWNE